Who will qualify from Semifinal 1?

[anto475]

I've been running polls on my personal IG and, based off my followers who aren't hardcore fans, they voted for Ireland, Lithuania, Malta, Russia, Cyprus, Ukraine, Israel, Croatia, Romania, and Azerbaijan to qualify. In that order.

 

[Iker]

will certainly NQ with that recent sad news. I am still hoping for some miracle.

 

[Mykola]

My guess-

 

[Zeus]

First battle of female popsongs here. Cyprus, Croatia, Israel and Azerbaijan (Malta will qualify for sure).

In terms of juryvoting I would say that little bit childish Croatia will suffer. Ethnic popsongs don't do that well either, so Azerbaijan will score low as well. Cyprus depends on the vocal quality and the staging. To me, Israel seems the most jury-friendly.

Televotes is really hard to predict here. Cyprus, Azerbaijan and Croatia will need a massive or at least really good televote score. Question is: who will get it? Not all three of them. 100% that at least one or maybe two of these four countries will not qualify.

 

[Iker]

First battle of female popsongs here. Cyprus, Croatia, Israel and Azerbaijan (Malta will qualify for sure).

In terms of juryvoting I would say that little bit childish Croatia will suffer. Ethnic popsongs don't do that well either, so Azerbaijan will score low as well. Cyprus depends on the vocal quality and the staging. To me, Israel seems the most jury-friendly.

Televotes is really hard to predict here. Cyprus, Azerbaijan and Croatia will need a massive or at least really good televote score. Question is: who will get it? Not all three of them. 100% that at least one or maybe two of these four countries will not qualify.

I agree on some of these likely NQ'ing. But ethno influence does not mean it decreases its chances. Israel 2018, arguably ethno influenced, scored very well with the juries too. It is very possible that 2-3 countries out of those will NQ considering the competitiveness of that semi.

 

[Iker]

First battle of female popsongs here. Cyprus, Croatia, Israel and Azerbaijan (Malta will qualify for sure).

In terms of juryvoting I would say that little bit childish Croatia will suffer. Ethnic popsongs don't do that well either, so Azerbaijan will score low as well. Cyprus depends on the vocal quality and the staging. To me, Israel seems the most jury-friendly.

Televotes is really hard to predict here. Cyprus, Azerbaijan and Croatia will need a massive or at least really good televote score. Question is: who will get it? Not all three of them. 100% that at least one or maybe two of these four countries will not qualify.

I agree on some of these likely NQ'ing. But ethno influence does not mean it decreases its chances. Israel 2018, arguably ethno influenced, scored very well with the juries.

 

[Zeus]

Hm, I don't really think that's a good example. I was thinking more of entries like Artsvik - Fly With Me or something (Armenia right?). Like really strong ethnic influence musically in the chorus.

 

[VikingTiger]

First battle of female popsongs here. Cyprus, Croatia, Israel and Azerbaijan (Malta will qualify for sure).

In terms of juryvoting I would say that little bit childish Croatia will suffer. Ethnic popsongs don't do that well either, so Azerbaijan will score low as well. Cyprus depends on the vocal quality and the staging. To me, Israel seems the most jury-friendly.

Televotes is really hard to predict here. Cyprus, Azerbaijan and Croatia will need a massive or at least really good televote score. Question is: who will get it? Not all three of them. 100% that at least one or maybe two of these four countries will not qualify.

I find this interesting as well. My guess is that Cyprus is the one that will do best of the above mentioned songs (like you I am not discussing Malta - they will pass this with flying colours).
I think Cyprus easily will be in the top 10 of both the juries and the televoters. I believe both Azerbaijan and Croatia will struggle more, especially with the juries. I am very confident that Az will do great staging. But unfortunately I am VERY doubtful that Croatia will managed the same. In that case I predict that my beloved Tick Tock will be out...
Israel? I used to see it as a clear NQ. But after the revamp I am not so sure. But if Efendi does her job, I think she might steal the spot from Eden.

 

[Zeus]

I think Israel will do good with the juries. It's a popsong, but more decent, polished, bit like usual Swedish entries. So I think Israel will have a big chance of qualifying.

I agree with you that probably one of Croatia and Azerbaijan will not qualify. I still have a feeling that Croatia might grow to be a televote favourite, mostly because of that hook. I guess the question will be: who will get more televotes, Croatia or Azerbaijan?

For Cyprus, I think that the song is more easy to get into. But at the same time: staging, charisma and vocals will be important as well. I might need to see the rehearsals first to be 100% sure.

 

[4815162342]

Its Eurojury half-time. If every top 3 mention gets 2,5 points and every other top 10 mention gets 1 point, we have this ranking for semi 1 (correct me if I made a mistake):

1. Malta 31
2. Israel 25,5
3. Sweden 19
4. Cyprus 17
5. Romania 13
6. Slovenia 10,5
7. Norway 9
8. Ukraine 8,5
9. Azerbaijan 8
10. Lithuania 6,5
11. Ireland 6
12. Russia 4,5
12. Croatia 4,5
12. North Macedonia 4,5
15. Australia 3
15. Belgium 3

I have some doubts. Israel and Slovenia way higher than expected. Lithuania underperforming.
Not only do preview shows hate on Belgium this year, eurojury doesnt like it either. Looks like a clear NQ by these measures.

 

[Zeus]

That low score for Belgium is idiotic. But it will be good live, so I still have confidence that the real judges will rate it.

Furthermore: I don't really think this is realistic, in general. Only two things that I will take from it, is that Israel and Slovenia really can achieve a good jury score. But Cyprus, Ukraine etc that high: no, not going to happen.

 

[crashworld]

We need to take into consideration that Eurojury is just based on the studio cut of the songs (and potentially the music videos) and some of the Eurojuries are not participating in the competition.

We all know that "live" performance will make or break the song especially in such competitive semi-final.
While this may give us a rough indication of how the actual juries in the actual competition may vote, but it's not definitive.

Having said that, the results of Eurojury have been fairly accurate though.

 

[4815162342]

Since they are given the playlist from the official Eurovision youtube channel, not all are judged by the studio version.
I do believe eurojury is a nice indicator, but it has its fails and sometimes just gives the wrong idea. In 2019 Michael Rice got a great eurojury score on his live performance, in the contest he got lousy 8 jury points.

Salvador Sobral was judged by his live performance. He was doing okay with eurojury, but 21/37 juries gave him 0 points, this never gave us indication he would landslide the real jury score. Now you can argue that his Eurovision performance was just better, but I would say pretty much every song gets eveluated from national final to eurovision.
Kristian Kostov was also underperforming for such a type of song. This gave the idea he would not do that great at Eurovision, yet he easily would have achieved more than 300 jury points if there was no Amar pelos dois.
There are tons of other examples.. like Eugent Pushpepa being rewarded by only one single eurojury member, but then getting a 7th place with juries in the contest. Or the United Kingdom being 5 times in the eurojury top 10 and not a single time managing to score a top 15 score at the contest. And the one time Eurojury didnt like UK (2017), they managed to get a top 10 result.

Not trying to dismiss eurojury. There are some nice findings. Austria 2018 got a 4th place, which was an indicator it could do really well (but then again, ZiBBZ only had 10 points less than Austria and didnt manage to qualify).
I still get the impression its actually more accurate if you try to put a potential jury ranking after all songs are out than relying on eurojury. Maybe I am completely wrong, but I have a hard time imagining Slovenia being higher than Lithuania in the juryscore of this semi (both judged by their live performance).
I also had Belgium easily in the top 10 jury of this semi.. going to be interesting how everything turns out in the end.

 

[Realest]

One Day before the Rehearsals we have the following Results:

01:
02:
03:
03:
05:
05:
07:
08:
09:
10:

11:
12:
13:
14:
15:
16:

Curious if something changes after the Rehearsals.

 

[GermanBango]

My final pre rehearsal prediction:

100% Club (Top 5 with Juries AND Televoters)
(J: 1-2 // T: 1-3)
(J: 1-2 // T: 4-5)

Very likely (Top 5 with either Juries OR Televoters)
(J: 7-12 // T: 1-3)
(J: 3-5 // T: 7-10)
(J: 4-5 // T: 5-10)
(J: 4-5 // T: 5-10)
(J: 7-10 // T: 4-6)
(J: 8-15 // T: 3-5)

Could go either way (These hover around 10th with both)
(J: 9-12 // T: 7-12)
(J: 6-10 // T: 8-13)
(J: 5-11 // T: 9-14)

Unlikely but not completely impossible (These hover around 10th with either Juries OR Televoters)
(J: 8-12 // T: 9-14)
(J: 9-15 // T: 7-13)
(J: 7-13 // T: 10-15)

Gonna take a miracle (Most likely not even close to Top 10 with either Juries OR Televoters)
(J: 11-16 // T: 12-16)
(J: 13-16 // T: 14-16)

 

[Iker]

I am looking forward to a 'shocking' NQ this year. The song is more interesting than 'X my heart' but the semi is stronger too.

 

[Jopi]

Russia, Ukraine AND Azerbaijan all top5 with televote? Unlikely.

 

[Synergise]

Locking in my pre-rehearsal predictions for semi 1. Expecting post-Eurovision embarrassment at how wrong these predictions were:

Combined Vote	Jury Vote	Televote
Malta (325)	Malta (163)	Malta (162)
Lithuania (210)	Sweden (123)	Lithuania (155)
Romania (207)	Romania (107)	Romania (100)
Cyprus (164)	Israel (89)	Cyprus (96)
Sweden (153)	Belgium (84)	Russia (96)
Russia (148)	Ireland (78)	Ukraine (82)
Israel (135)	Cyprus (68)	Azerbaijan (76)
Azerbaijan (117)	Slovenia (67)	Norway (53)
Belgium (113)	Lithuania (55)	Israel (46)
Ireland (111)	Russia (52)	Croatia (46)
------------------------------	--------------------	--------------------
Ukraine (105)	N. Macedonia (52)	Australia (43)
Slovenia (97)	Azerbaijan (41)	Ireland (33)
Norway (91)	Norway (38)	Sweden (30)
N. Macedonia (77)	Australia (33)	Slovenia (30)
Australia (76)	Croatia (29)	Belgium (29)
Croatia (75)	Ukraine (23)	N. Macedonia (25)

 

[Looren]

Croatia last ? I think that it's impossible

 

[Synergise]

Croatia last ? I think that it's impossible

I just really feel like it's going to get overshadowed in this semi, particularly by the jury (though I have it as a televote qualifier). I actually don't think any of the entries in this semi are going to flop points-wise because the all around standard is high, but I expect quite a large disparity between the jury and televote in this semi.