Who will qualify from Semifinal 1?

[WhoKnows]

I was the 100th voter. That's gotta mean something.

 

[RainyWoods]

My pre rehearsal prediction:




I wanted to be really ballsy and put Macedonia there in place of Belgium, but I have to have an idea of the performance first. The only way Vasil probably saves himself is if he goes down a high kitsch route with the staging.

Perhaps leaving Russia out is daring but they're in with something that doesn't feel jury friendly at all, and furthermore they've lost an automatic 24 points after Belarus got banned.

 

[Looren]

Little pre-rehearsal prediction :

 

[Remisan]

My pre rehearsal prediction:



I really hope that Belgium will be in the final, but after the Eurojury it seems to me that Israel will be in the final. (Israel was in my top 10 in 2020, but this year her song is worse for me)
It seems to me that viewers will save Azerbaijan, and the jury will not drown Russia too much. After PreParty, I am sure that Manizha will be in the final.
Slovenia and North Macedonia will receive points for voice, but viewers will drown them. And if Slovenia has a very small chance to pass instead of Azerbaijan due to the votes of the jury, then North Macedonia does not have them at all, I believe. (I liked Vasil's song last year, but this one an absolute NQ)
Croatia also has a chance to replace Azerbaijan or Israel.

 

[Jopi]

Let's do this before rehearsals...

SF1

Jury:

1. Malta
2. Sweden
3. Slovenia
4. Israel
5. Romania
6. Belgium
7. Lithuania
8. Cyprus
9. N. Macedonia
10. Australia

Televote:

1. Cyprus
2. Lithuania
3. Ukraine
4. Norway
5. Romania
6. Malta
7. Azerbaijan
8. Russia
9. Sweden
10. Croatia

 

[4815162342]

Those were the 10 qualifiers I picked here back in the end of march and I get the feeling I will stick with them even after rehearsals:




Possible juryranking I did in March after we had all revamped entries:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7. (first version would have been bottom 3)
8. (I assumed meh vocals)
9.
10.
11.
12.
13. (I assumed bad vocals)
14.
15.
16.

According to eurojury I completely misjudged Belgium. If you count the votes from each of the 192 jurors, Belgium avoids last place by only 7 points if I havent miscalculated.
Jury scores are really hard to predict..

 

[crashworld]

According to eurojury I completely misjudged Belgium. If you count the votes from each of the 192 jurors, Belgium avoids last place by only 7 points if I havent miscalculated.
Jury scores are really hard to predict..

There are arguments saying the juries from Eurojury substantially consist of Junior Eurovision participants, which does not represent the large range of representation of the juries in the actual contest. To be honest, I still think anything could happen until we really see the near-complete staging in the 2nd rehearsals. The 1st rehearsals may give us an indication but we know there are things that happen between 1st and 2nd rehearsals when delegations decide to make changes to the staging/camera angles etc.

Having said that, I did put Belgium as a NQ in my own prediction table prior to the rehearsals.

 

[aardvark]

My final prediction for Semi 1:

Very certain:
1 Malta
2 Lithuania
3 Cyprus
4 Romania
5 Ukraine

Somewhat certain:
6 Croatia
7 Belgium
8 Israel
9 Norway

Not certain at all:
10 Sweden
11 Azerbaijan
12 Russia
13 Slovenia

Not looking good:
14 Australia
15 Ireland
16 North Macedonia

And no, I am not crazy, but I think there is a real chance that neither Sweden (less jury support than usual and poor televote), Russia (eaten alive by juries) or Australia (skipped by both juries and televote) qualify this year.

 

[Zeus]

@Synergise Don't forget: that tick-tock hook will do wonders for Croatia in the recap.

Furthermore: overrating Ireland in juryvote (bad vocals), underrating Norway in televotes I think.

Mostly agree with @aardvark. I think as well that from Azerbaijan, Russia and Sweden only one will qualify. At least one of these countries will NQ. Sweden could have a good juryvote if Tusse has his voice back, so I think they will be the safest one.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

How I think it'll go down:

STRONG
01. Malta
02. Lithuania
03. Cyprus
SOLID
04. Romania
05. Sweden
SAFE
06. Azerbaijan
07. Ukraine
BORDERLINE
08. Norway
09. Belgium
10. Ireland
11. Russia
12. Israel
13. Croatia
OUT
14. Slovenia
15. Australia
16. North Macedonia

I want the best for Australia but I feel like they're the country that's going to defy expectations and flop harder than expected.

I think Croatia is going to get lost in the shuffle. I still put them in borderline, but only just.

I'm kinda expecting Ireland to be moderately to positively supported by both the juries and public, I feel like it's a question of whether or not two 9ths or 10ths are going to turn into a qualification though. It might depend on how much the jury and public vote disagree with each other on other songs.

Based on the rehearsals the recent rehearsals:

STRONG
01. Malta
02. Lithuania
03. Cyprus
SOLID
04. Russia
SAFE
05. Belgium
06. Sweden
07. Ukraine
BORDERLINE
08. Norway
09. Ireland
10. Croatia
11. Azerbaijan
12. Romania
13. Israel
OUT
14. Slovenia
15. Australia
16. North Macedonia

Ireland feels really hard to quantify considering we're apparently attempting the most ambitious staging at Eurovision this year. I think it is a good thing that we're being ambitious though honestly...in such a strong semi we can't afford to play it safe. I think if Lesley can pull it off and look comfortable doing it we might have a shot.

I think Sweden might underperform somewhat in terms of placement, but I still can't see a reality where they don't qualify.

The borderline section really feels like a mess though, wouldn't really be shocked if any of the countries on that list qualified.

 

[Himan]

Based on the rehearsals the recent rehearsals:

STRONG
01. Malta
02. Lithuania
03. Cyprus
SOLID
04. Russia
SAFE
05. Belgium
06. Sweden
07. Ukraine
BORDERLINE
08. Norway
09. Ireland
10. Croatia
11. Azerbaijan
12. Romania
13. Israel
OUT
14. Slovenia
15. Australia
16. North Macedonia

Ireland feels really hard to quantify considering we're apparently attempting the most ambitious staging at Eurovision this year. I think it is a good thing that we're being ambitious though honestly...in such a strong semi we can't afford to play it safe. I think if Lesley can pull it off and look comfortable doing it we might have a shot.

I think Sweden might underperform somewhat in terms of placement, but I still can't see a reality where they don't qualify.

The borderline section really feels like a mess though, wouldn't really be shocked if any of the countries on that list qualified.

I have exactly the same 10 qualifiers now. Was a bit negative about Cyprus, but now Azerbaijan will get the troubles. They though have a good order, so indeed some earlier songs might get the troubles.

 

[Himan]

Easy:
Malta*
Lithuania *
Sweden*
Ukraine*
Russia*

Highly probable:
Norway*
Cyprus*

Danger zone and through:
Belgium
Ireland
Croatia*

Just not through:
Azerbaijan
Israel*
Romania*

Not through:
Australia
Slovenia
North Macedonia

Problems for highly probable:
Norway: You have to understand the story to vote for him. But the odds say they go through relatively easy, hence I follow.
Cyprus: At first I wasn't sure she would slay on stage, but we now now she will and will beat Azerbaijan and Croatia with ease

Problems for Danger zone and Through:
Belgium: The only song in their genre in this semi final, hence it probably does okay with televotes, beside that, juries can't look pass them. So I think Belgium will qualify. Though not easy at all
Ireland: They are the mystery box of this semi final. Nobody knows what will happen with Ireland. I think they go through. Lesley is so likable and there is a big chance their augmented reality might work.
Croatia: Is heavily in the danger zone, has Cyprus and Azerbaijan as songs that people might also vote for in this genre. That being said, she seems fun to me and her energy is really good.

Problems for Danger zone and just not through:
Azerbaijan: Has two songs in the same genre and I also think the text of this year is less good. Why putting the sentence 'like Cleopatra in your song' I think the lyrics don't work. That being said, Azerbaijan always has a fan base in Eastern Europe and with the Turkish population, hence Sweden, Belgium, Russia and Ukraine might do wonders for them. (I want to state I had them 4th overall last year!)
Israel: Ooh this is actually the fourth song fighting with Azerbaijan, Croatia and Cyprus for these votes. I'm affraid Alene will be the real underdog in this fight, though she has a good position.
Romania: I just forget this song at the end of the show. I think amnesia will be a problem. But there are just 10 places and in the end Romania will just fall off the list I feel. Also their staging wasn't that good I thought.

Problems for not through:
Australia: Not in Rotterdam
Slovenia: Christian songs don't work that well I guess anymore, also an early position in the show.
North Macedonia: Well, just last in odds, pretty bad in my eyes

 

[Ana Raquel]

1st prediction (done here):



2nd prediction (done after rehearsals 1):



I'm still keeping australia because they are hard to predict, can possibly be swapped by either , , or . in and out after the rehearsals. still in because I still believe in a massive jury support, but is the most likely replacement for it.

 

[Himan]

And now I already want to put Israel in and Ireland out. This semi-final

 

[Mainshow]

This semi final is crazy. It was so difficult to come up with a prediction.

I voted for:












I still think it's possible for to qualify but it highly depends on the juries or whereas might not make it or even or (I think they will be all fighting for the spots #8 to #12).
If qualifies, it would be not justified at all, imo. I feel for the act for not making it to Rotterdam and the song itself isn't that bad but in this semi, there are bolder choices as well as so much better performances and vocals. Same applies to this time (unfortunately) but I think it's quite delusional to think of not qualifying.
I agree with not getting a huge jury support this time but I think it's quite unlikely that they place the female-led uptempos above it ( ). Also, and will not attract too many votes by the biased jury not being willing to award originality and progressive Slavic gems (prove me otherwise!). Thus, which songs are left to be potentially placed higher than ? - and for sure but the tacky and cheesy performance of ? the old-fashioned ballad and non-event which is (great vocals though! juries will probably rank in their lower Top 10) or the indie-90's-pop rock track by ? (this is even too alternative for the generic taste of the juries).
Nah, it will be impossible for T*sse to not qualify.. even with these "not so perfect" vocals and strange lightning effects.

 

[Skrzeczk]

I think that most likely to qualify are Lithuania, Russia, Sweden, Cyprus, Norway, Belgium, Ukraine and Malta. If at least two of them fail to qualify, I'll be surprised. I know we didn't see whole performances but they seem to be very likely qualifiers now. The rest can fight for 2 or 3 remaining places. Everyone has some chance to qualify and surprise us but I guess North Macedonia is the least likely.

There's too much up-tempo songs with 4-5 dancers. I can't see them all qualifying together...

 

[Preuss]

Lithuania
Russia
Sweden
Australia
Cyprus
Norway
Israel
Azerbaijan
Ukraine
Malta

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Based on the rehearsals the recent rehearsals:

STRONG
01. Malta
02. Lithuania
03. Cyprus
SOLID
04. Russia
SAFE
05. Belgium
06. Sweden
07. Ukraine
BORDERLINE
08. Norway
09. Ireland
10. Croatia
11. Azerbaijan
12. Romania
13. Israel
OUT
14. Slovenia
15. Australia
16. North Macedonia

Ireland feels really hard to quantify considering we're apparently attempting the most ambitious staging at Eurovision this year. I think it is a good thing that we're being ambitious though honestly...in such a strong semi we can't afford to play it safe. I think if Lesley can pull it off and look comfortable doing it we might have a shot.

I think Sweden might underperform somewhat in terms of placement, but I still can't see a reality where they don't qualify.

The borderline section really feels like a mess though, wouldn't really be shocked if any of the countries on that list qualified.

The more time passes the more doubts I start to have about Sweden. I feel like a lot of people right now are giving Sweden a pass mainly because they're Sweden. (I mean I understand, I feel like I'm being affected by that too)

Especially now with Australia looking like they'll have a good performance. Even with a good performance I'm not sure if enough of the public vote will get behind the song though. I love the song but I think it could be a hard sell to the general public. I hope I'm wrong here!

Vocals for Ireland are an issue, but I think people are underestimating slightly how much the performance is going to stand out. Even just by song genre alone this song would have stood out, and now the stage performance also stands out. I don't expect to see us at the top of the scoreboard but I doubt we'll be near the bottom either. Lesley doesn't need to have mind blowing vocals, she just needs her vocals to work for the performance. (and that feels like a more achievable task over the next few days)

Qualifiers:
01. Malta
02. Lithuania
03. Cyprus
04. Russia
05. Belgium
06. Ukraine
07. Croatia
08. Norway
09. Ireland
10. Israel
-------------
11. Sweden
12. Romania
13. Azerbaijan
14. Australia
15. Slovenia
16. North Macedonia

I feel like Romania will have a fairly good televote result, but based on the rehearsals so far the juries might drag it down.

Sweden might seem low in this ranking, but I'm actually feeling tempted to put both Romania and Azerbaijan in front of them...the only reason I haven't is because it's Sweden. I don't think Sweden is safe anymore.

 

[midnightsun]

I also think Sweden is borderline this year IF the performance doesn't improve but I think, Tusse's holding back a bit due to his vocal issues. But then again, many songs are borderline especially in Semi 1 and I'm pretty sure Sweden will make it and ending up circa 5-6 in the Semi. There are many people out there who like it, especially in Western Europe. All Scandinavian countries will vote for it and pretty sure Malta will too and Germany probably too and so will others.

 

[Looren]

Predictions after the 2nd rehearsals

Jury :

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.

Televote :

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.

Overall qualifiers (random order) :



is the most borderline depending on the vocals, but if she has great vocals I think that she'll be sure insted of Sweden or Azerbaijan

After the rehearsals I think that will NQ, but if she slays in the live show she might be back in the game