Betting Odds 2020

[Citelis]

People know by the selection of the artist that Georgia's entry is going to be bad!

 

[Realest]

jumped from 14 to 5. Did I miss something?

 

[BorisBubbles]

Norway and denmark being that high is a joke.

 

[Mainshow]

After the allocation draw + the trailer of "Szansa na sukces", Poland made its way into the Top 10 (#9).
Australia's up to #7.

 

[hijirio]

jumped from 14 to 5. Did I miss something?

You missed something enermous.
Indeed, how could you miss dat?

 

[John1]

You missed something enermous.
Indeed, how could you miss dat?

Malta on its way to win we stan

 

[Realest]

fell from 16 to 40 today. Also is now last.

 

[Kaz]

fell from 16 to 40 today.

Astrid's revenge!

 

[choda]

Odds means nothing now. It is betfair, where you don't have actual bookies. You have people trading their odds with each other. It is explained there very well.

 

[SwedishFailurez]

Odds means nothing now. It is betfair, where you don't have actual bookies. You have people trading their odds with each other. It is explained there very well.

For longtime Eurovision-fans, it should be obvious already...
Even during the rehearsals in may, the bookies are potentially incorrect. It's during the live-shows when the bookies show the gut-wrenching reality what people outside this bubble actually vote for, 2014 and 2016 prove that.

 

[Realest]

Russia is #1 again. I guess Sanremo didnt have any potential ESC-Winners. On the other Side, I dont get why Denmark and Australia are that high.

1		Russia	6%	8.5	11	11	14
2		Italy	6%	8	11	11	18
3		Sweden	6%	10	11	11	12
4		Norway	5%	10			15
5		Australia	5%	12	13	13	17
6		Malta	5%	13			14
7		Denmark	4%	12			20
8		Netherlands artist: Jeangu Macrooy	4%	10	17	17	30
9		Iceland	4%	17			16
10		Belgium artist: Hooverphonic	4%	15	17	17	22
11		Poland	3%	18			15
12		Ukraine	3%	18			17
13		Bulgaria artist: Victoria	3%	21			17
14		Azerbaijan	3%	21			25
15		Czech Republic Benny Cristo - Kemama	2%	17			50
15		Greece Stefania - Superg!rl	2%	26			20
17		France artist: Tom Leeb	2%	21	26	26	30
18		Ireland	2%	34	26	26	42
19		Germany	2%	15	34	34	55
20		Spain Blas Cantó - Universo	2%	12	21	21	180
21		Israel artist: Eden Alene	2%	41	26	26	60
22		Switzerland	2%	36			29
23		United Kingdom	2%	36	34	34	50
24		San Marino	2%	26			70
25		Romania	2%	36			40
26		Cyprus artist: Sandro Nicolas	2%	36			42
27		Portugal	2%	36			44
28		Estonia	2%	36			48
29		Lithuania	2%	34			55
30		Armenia	1%	41			40
31		Slovenia	1%	21			110
32		Finland	1%	34			70
33		Serbia	1%	26			120
34		Latvia	1%	34			120
35		Croatia	1%	61			44
36		Albania Arilena Ara - Shaj	1%	34			140
37		Moldova	1%	41			140
38		Austria Vincent Bueno - Alive	1%	51			110
39		North Macedonia artist: Vasil	1%	51			150
40		Belarus	1%	36			220
41		Georgia Tornike Kipiani - Take Me As I Am	1%	61			230

 

[Citelis]

Because Denmrak is amazing!

 

[Realest]

Because Denmrak is amazing!

Which Song has Top5 Potential?

 

[Citelis]

Which Song has Top5 Potential?

''Yes'' has top10 petential despite what haters say. ''Human'' probably has top5 potential. ''Den eneste goth i Vejle'' has a lot of potential too. The rest are great but i guess they don't have the same potential.

 

[Realest]

Is it because of Ulrikke or did I miss something?

1 Norway 6% 10 11
2 Russia 6% 8.5 11 11 14
3 Italy 6% 8 11 11 16
4 Sweden 6% 10 11 11 10
5 Malta 5% 13 11
6 Australia 5% 12 13 13 18
7 Denmark 4% 12 20
8 Netherlands artist: Jeangu Macrooy 4% 8 17 17 30
9 Ukraine 4% 18 12
10 Belgium artist: Hooverphonic 3% 15 17 17 24
11 Iceland 3% 17 18
12 Poland 3% 18 17
13 Bulgaria artist: Victoria 3% 21 18
14 Azerbaijan 3% 21 32
15 France artist: Tom Leeb 2% 21 26 26 30
16 Greece Stefania - Superg!rl 2% 26 24
17
Czech Republic Benny Cristo - Kemama 2% 17 55
18 Ireland 2% 26 26 26 42
19 Germany 2% 15 34 34 55
20 Romania 2% 36 12
21
Spain Blas Cantó - Universo 2% 12 21 21 180
22 Switzerland 2% 36 29
23 United Kingdom 2% 36 34 34 50
24 San Marino 2% 26 70
25 Israel artist: Eden Alene 2% 41 26 26 95
26 Cyprus artist: Sandro Nicolas 2% 36 42
27 Estonia 2% 36 44
27 Portugal 2% 36 44
29 Lithuania 1% 34 60
30 Armenia 1% 41 42
31 Slovenia 1% 21 110
32 Finland 1% 34 70
33 Serbia 1% 26 120
34 Croatia 1% 61 44
35
Albania Arilena Ara - Shaj 1% 34 140
35 Latvia 1% 34 140
37 Moldova 1% 41 130
38 Austria Vincent Bueno - Alive 1% 51 110
39 North Macedonia artist: Vasil 1% 51 150
40 Belarus 1% 36 220
41 Georgia Tornike Kipiani - Take Me As I Am 1% 61 250

 

[NikolaiMoller]

Is it because of Ulrikke or did I miss something?

Tone, I think

 

[Uto]

Russia is #1 again. I guess Sanremo didnt have any potential ESC-Winners. On the other Side, I dont get why Denmark and Australia are that high.

Denmark I have no idea, seems like a losing bet even at 40 or 50. Human seems like their best option which is decent but hardly a winner. Australia has Don't Break Me which isn't spectacular, but certainly sets a very high bar. It is simply going to win if the competition isn't able to get to that level and so far the countries that are normally going to be up there look disappointing (Sweden, Italy) so it's a completely viable bet to make when over 15 or so.

 

[EscUKFan]

I’m watching Belgium, I think there gonna surprise in a few weeks, might even pop a sneaky bet on. In the unlikely event of Elodie winning Sanremo tomorrow she could perhaps push Italy back on top, perhaps Francesco could do the same.

 

[Realest]

Wow

1		Australia Montaigne - Don't Break Me	6%	11	9	9	14
2		Russia	5%	8.5	11	11	12
3		Italy	5%	8	11	11	15
4		Norway	5%	10			14
5		Sweden	5%	7.5	13	13	12
6		Malta	5%	10			20
7		Denmark	4%	12			22
8		Netherlands artist: Jeangu Macrooy	4%	12	17	17	17
9		Iceland	3%	17			16
10		Poland	3%	18			13
10		Ukraine	3%	18			13
12		Belgium artist: Hooverphonic	3%	15	17	17	24
13		Bulgaria artist: Victoria	3%	21			17
13		Slovenia	3%	21			17
15		Azerbaijan	2%	21			32
16		France artist: Tom Leeb	2%	18	26	26	30
17		Greece Stefania - Superg!rl	2%	26			24
18		Ireland	2%	26	26	26	42
19		Czech Republic Benny Cristo - Kemama	2%	17			65
20		Israel artist: Eden Alene	2%	41	26	26	17
21		Spain Blas Cantó - Universo	2%	12	21	21	150
22		Germany	2%	15	34	34	55
23		Romania	2%	36			12
24		Switzerland	2%	36			15
25		Cyprus artist: Sandro Nicolas	2%	36			18
26		Portugal	2%	36			20
27		San Marino	2%	26			55
28		Moldova	2%	41			15
29		United Kingdom	2%	36	34	34	42
30		Finland	1%	34			50
31		Lithuania	1%	34			55
32		Armenia	1%	41			36
33		Austria Vincent Bueno - Alive	1%	51			11
34		North Macedonia artist: Vasil	1%	51			13
35		Estonia	1%	36			70
36		Serbia	1%	26			120
37		Croatia	1%	61			12
38		Georgia Tornike Kipiani - Take Me As I Am	1%	61			15
39		Belarus	1%	36			100
40		Latvia	1%	34			110
41		Albania Arilena Ara - Shaj	1%	34			200

 

[Zonne147]

Betting odds say nothing about the main contest at this moment, I still don't get how people are surprised with climbs/drops of more than 10 places. Betfair exchange is pointless.

They usually start to be more accurate after Sanremo when other betting houses open their odds too.

As you can see one of the current betting houses is totally based on recent results of each country, while the other two almost never change - they are actually connected, when one changes the other changes too.

At this stage of the year the Top 4/5 countries are always the same, except last year when Darude's announcement pushed Finland to the Top 3. After a few more songs betting odds will start to make sense.

Please - don't trust ESC odds at this moment. They mean nothing and are far away from the reality.