Betting Odds 2020

[choda]

I find in quite funny because odds from bookies are quite stable with little changes right now, and only thing that changes is betfair which is totally irrelevant. Deserves no reaction until March

 

[Realest]

Albania is now 26th, the highest theyve ever been. Also Latvia is going up. And Germany...

1		Italy Diodato - Fai rumore	8%	7.5	6	7.8
2		Russia	6%	9	9	11
3		Sweden	5%	10	11	11
4		Norway	5%	11	11	22
5		Malta artist: Destiny Chukunyere	4%	11	13	20
6		Australia Montaigne - Don't Break Me	4%	11	10	44
7		Bulgaria artist: Victoria	3%	15	17	17
8		Denmark	3%	12	17	27
9		Ukraine	3%	18	17	15
10		Belgium artist: Hooverphonic	3%	13	21	22
11		Poland	3%	18	17	21
12		Iceland	3%	17	21	20
13		Azerbaijan	3%	21	19	25
14		Germany	3%	15	21	42
15		France artist: Tom Leeb	3%	18	21	38
16		Greece Stefania - Superg!rl	2%	26	19	26
17		Netherlands artist: Jeangu Macrooy	2%	12	19	75
18		Czech Republic Benny Cristo - Kemama	2%	17	21	90
19		Switzerland	2%	36	21	29
20		Israel artist: Eden Alene	2%	41	21	18
21		Romania artist: Roxen	2%	36	26	20
22		Estonia	2%	36	21	40
23		Ireland	2%	26	34	44
24		San Marino	2%	26	34	55
25		Cyprus Sandro Nicolas - Running	2%	36	21	80
26		Albania Arilena Ara - Shaj	2%	34	41	14
27		Finland	2%	34	26	70
28		Lithuania	2%	34	34	50
29		Serbia	1%	26	34	95
30		Spain Blas Cantó - Universo	1%	12	19	210
31		Portugal	1%	36	41	50
32		Latvia Samanta Tīna - Still Breathing	1%	34	21	140
33		Slovenia	1%	21	26	170
34		Armenia	1%	41	41	65
35		United Kingdom	1%	36	51	48
36		Croatia	1%	61	41	14
37		Moldova	1%	41	41	110
38		Austria Vincent Bueno - Alive	1%	51	41	130
39		Belarus	1%	36	34	210
40		North Macedonia artist: Vasil	1%	51	41	160
41		Georgia Tornike Kipiani - Take Me As I Am	1%	61	41	150

 

[NikolaiMoller]

North Macedonia dropped a lot

 

[Realest]

Wow.

1		Italy Diodato - Fai rumore	8%	7	7	7	7.8
2		Sweden	6%	9	9	9	13
3		Russia	6%	9	11	11	12
4		Norway Ulrikke Brandstorp - Attention	5%	11	11	11	16
5		Lithuania The Roop - On Fire	5%	11	13	13	13
6		Australia Montaigne - Don't Break Me	5%	9	9	9	48
7		Malta artist: Destiny Chukunyere	5%	11	13	13	22
8		Bulgaria artist: Victoria	4%	15	17	17	16
9		Belgium artist: Hooverphonic	4%	13	17	17	25
10		Denmark	3%	12	17	17	42
11		Poland	3%	18			23
12		Germany	3%	15	21	21	42
13		Portugal	3%	17			40
14		Greece Stefania - Superg!rl	3%	26	21	21	32
15		Netherlands artist: Jeangu Macrooy	2%	12	21	21	90
16		France artist: Tom Leeb	2%	18	26	26	42
17		Ukraine	2%	18	26	26	55
18		Azerbaijan	2%	21			44
19		Iceland	2%	17			70
20		Ireland	2%	26	26	26	80
21		Belarus	2%	36			15
22		Switzerland	2%	36			22
23		Romania artist: Roxen	2%	34			29
24		Czech Republic Benny Cristo - Kemama	2%	17	34	34	100
25		Spain Blas Cantó - Universo	2%	12	34	34	130
26		United Kingdom	2%	36	34	34	55
27		Israel artist: Eden Alene	2%	41	34	34	60
28		Estonia	1%	36			65
29		Armenia Athena Manoukian - Chains On You	1%	41			55
30		Finland	1%	34			100
31		Cyprus Sandro Nicolas - Running	1%	36	51	51	90
32		Moldova	1%	41			100
33		Slovenia	1%	21			250
34		Austria Vincent Bueno - Alive	1%	51	67	67	200
35		Croatia	1%	61			120
36		San Marino	1%	26			240
37		Serbia	1%	26			260
38		Latvia Samanta Tīna - Still Breathing	1%	34	101	101	200
39		Albania Arilena Ara - Shaj	1%	34	101	101	230
40		North Macedonia Vasil - You	1%	51	101	101	270
41		Georgia Tornike Kipiani - Take Me As I Am	1%	61	101	101	240

 

[JonnyWest]

How the hell Portugal is 13th

 

[Uto]

How the hell Portugal is 13th

Probably default position based on perceived strength of NF and history. If not, Passe-Partout is probably scaring the shit out of them.

 

[choda]

Lithuania in second place, it is still shortening. Maybe it will pass Italy till noon?

 

[Uto]

Lithuania in second place, it is still shortening. Maybe it will pass Italy till noon?

Seems unlikely. At 8 it is where it is supposed to be I would say. The hype is real, but there’s still not much of a song. Chances of it winning are slim if you can’t take the jury. At 8 this is pretty much where the expected televote winner would now be with some jury support and 3/4 of the field still to be decided. It’s a somewhat defensive price, but there is no other way, as it’s very unwise to bet against something that is going viral while it is still in its viral phase.

 

[choda]

I see Lithuania doing at jury like Lake Malawi last year. But with much more serious televoting, maybe even top 5

 

[Uto]

I see Lithuania doing at jury like Lake Malawi last year. But with much more serious televoting, maybe even top 5

I don't believe this at all. Lake Malawi was a great song with a nice performance. The Roop is a great performance with a nice song. Juries rate the quality of the song more than they do the performance.

 

[4815162342]

Lithuania shortened a lot on betfair today. From around 12 down to 7-8. Italy and Lithuania now about the same odds.

 

[Realest]

is shortly before writing History and climbed around 17 Places.

1		Italy Diodato - Fai rumore	8%	6.5	7.5	7	6.5	7	6.45	8
2		Lithuania The Roop - On Fire	8%	7	7	7	6.5	7	6.9	8.2
3		Romania artist: Roxen	5%	9	10	13	8	13	9	11
4		Sweden	5%	11	12	11	8.5	11	6.3	18
5		Russia	5%	11	12	11	10	11	11	14
6		Australia Montaigne - Don't Break Me	4%	9	13	13	10	13	9	55
7		Bulgaria artist: Victoria	4%	15	12	13	13	13	15	14
8		Norway Ulrikke Brandstorp - Attention	4%	11	13	17	15	17	11	23
9		Malta artist: Destiny Chukunyere	3%	15	17	13	15	13	15	28
10		Poland	3%	19	17	17	17	17	18	20
11		Germany	3%	15	22	17	21	17	15	21
12		Belgium Hooverphonic - Release Me	3%	13	17	21	15	21	13	60
13		Denmark	3%	15	20	17	21	17	15	44
14		Iceland	3%	17	15	26	13	26	16	34
15		Portugal	3%	17	20		15		16	60
16		Switzerland	3%	21	20		21		21	24
17		Azerbaijan	3%	21	20		21		21	25
18		Ireland	2%	21	20	26	21	26	20	50
19		Greece Stefania - Superg!rl	2%	21	30	21	19	21	21	55
20		Netherlands artist: Jeangu Macrooy	2%	21	25	21	26	21	21	80
21		Slovenia	2%	21	30		29		21	40
22		Ukraine	2%	19	30	26	21	26	19	95
23		Estonia	2%	34	30		26		34	80
24		Finland	1%	34	30		29		33	120
25		Israel artist: Eden Alene	1%	41	40	34	26	34	41	85
26		Czech Republic Benny Cristo - Kemama	1%	41	30	34	26	34	41	130
27		Serbia	1%	26	35		41		26	130
28		France Tom Leeb - The Best in Me	1%	19	30	26	41	26	18	290
29		San Marino	1%	26	50		41		26	80
30		Spain Blas Cantó - Universo	1%	34	30	34	26	34	34	200
31		Cyprus Sandro Nicolas - Running	1%	34	35	51	21	51	34	95
32		Moldova	1%	41	40		41		40	65
33		United Kingdom	1%	36	40		51		36	60
34		Armenia Athena Manoukian - Chains On You	1%	41	30		41		41	110
35		Belarus	1%	34	40		41		34	350
36		Croatia	1%	67	65		41		67	140
37		Austria Vincent Bueno - Alive	1%	67	65	67	41	67	67	280
38		Albania Arilena Ara - Shaj	1%	101	50	101	51	101	101	110
39		Latvia Samanta Tīna - Still Breathing	1%	101	50	101	26	101	101	370
40		North Macedonia Vasil - You	1%	101	75	101	51	101	101	210
41		Georgia Tornike Kipiani - Take Me As I Am	1%	101	65	101	41	101	100	420

 

[HayashiM]

is shortly before writing History and climbed around 17 Places.

Well now that Romania's in the mix, their improvements must come at the expense of someone else - I don't see Lithuania nor Italy gaining much more ground in the immediate future. Plus, Lithuania already got back to 7 from a 6.5 by Ladbrokes and Coral, so... it might not write that history after all.
Anyway the odds will change dramatically in the next 2 weeks, so there's little need to worry about them now

 

[FilipFromSweden]

I just really don't see Italy winning. It will be or

 

[Nemo89]

Oh no! Italy is still favorite! I foresee the same hard fight between "Soldi" and "Arcade". I am sure that the public will vote more on Lithuania (it seems that they have written the most beautiful and original song in history ) and the juries will award Italy (perhaps Rai has decided to pay to lead the next ESC ). Surprise victory and much discussed of Italy It is normal, the victories must always be discussed So ... you vote little for Italy! We make jury work impossible In fact, wouldn't it be a great satisfaction to see us out of the "Top 10"?

 

[RainyWoods]

I feel like we haven't heard the winner yet, perhaps not even from any of the national selections. This Lithuania hype although sweet, I'm unsure will translate to much this May. Then again, I found the Toy hype very peculiar and look what happened there. That song however was bombastic. Can you sell your crazy to people with minimalist electro pop? I would say probably not.

I love Fai Rumore and I think a place in the top 10 is pretty much a certainty, but I'd also say this is one of Italy's least competitive attempts in a while. It doesn't feel like a winner at all but perhaps could sneak it with a public and jury disagreement moment.

Bulgaria wants the win badly and I'd say they're the one to watch. If not then Sweden is on backup providing they go female and avoid Hanna. Weirdly I don't count my own country out. Yes, we're tragic but it's only because our songs have been selected by Satan each year. We could be a frontrunner every time if we actually tried, and signs point to us just maybe.. trying on this go. Dangerous optimism, I know. Oh and then there's CHAKRAS who I declared as possible Eurovision winners one afternoon as I watched them go "la la la la la" at the Belarus auditions. 350/1 is ridiculously tempting considering the success of some of my past crazy predictions.

 

[Nemo89]

I feel like we haven't heard the winner yet, perhaps not even from any of the national selections. This Lithuania hype although sweet, I'm unsure will translate to much this May. Then again, I found the Toy hype very peculiar and look what happened there. That song however was bombastic. Can you sell your crazy to people with minimalist electro pop? I would say probably not.

I love Fai Rumore and I think a place in the top 10 is pretty much a certainty, but I'd also say this is one of Italy's least competitive attempts in a while. It doesn't feel like a winner at all but perhaps could sneak it with a public and jury disagreement moment.

Bulgaria wants the win badly and I'd say they're the one to watch. If not then Sweden is on backup providing they go female and avoid Hanna. Weirdly I don't count my own country out. Yes, we're tragic but it's only because our songs have been selected by Satan each year. We could be a frontrunner every time if we actually tried, and signs point to us just maybe.. trying on this go. Dangerous optimism, I know. Oh and then there's CHAKRAS from Belarus who I declared as possible Eurovision winners one afternoon as I watched them go "la la la la la" at the Belarus auditions. 350/1 is ridiculously tempting considering the success of some of my past crazy predictions.

RainyWoods is always a pleasure to read your comments. In addition to being a music lover, you are always lucid and correct. You're right that the UK could bring some great music. Unfortunately the mistake lies in the selection. Maybe you are not at the level of the 60s, 70s, 80s maximum, but you still have artists of great value today. For other considerations, I think the Lithuanian song is suffering from the "Italian Syndrome". Always be first among the preferences before the event and then don't win the ESC. The Lithuanian song for me is catchy but it is not original, it may have a reduced audience (it does not have the same madness as "Toy") and the risk is that, over time, the song loses its magic. Why variables must be considered: from here to May many songs will enter the competition and a lot of time will pass. Would we still have the same tastes? Will the songs keep the same strength? Because Eurovision is a "musical marathon" and not a "musical snap". The song that will keep its emotions intact will win. Even if I support Diodato and I like to provoke , my thoughts we don't go beyond the "Top 10". However there is to consider that this year where Italy has the "weakest" track could manage to win. The reasons for the probable victory are three: the "war between the 3 big blocks" (can lead to unpredictable results), the global level of the songs and how much they will be able to remain strong over time and finally ... that Italy has chosen to invest in the ESC 2021. My friends, this is not just about music! Money and politics speak! Already to participate in the ESC you need a participation budget and, if you want to win, you must be willing to host the next edition. Unless a nation has decided to invest, respect for Belarusian, Sanmarinese or Cypriot friends, do you really think that winning the competition is the best choice for these nations? A great idea would be to win Australia and co-organize the next edition

 

[HayashiM]

If you sum add up all current odds for and at https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision, 's sum is only bigger by 0.05 ( 49.75 x 49.8 ).
can become n°1 any second now...

 

[Nemo89]

If you sum add up all current odds for and at https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision, 's sum is only bigger by 0.05 ( 49.75 x 49.8 ).
can become n°1 any second now...

It's true. But keep in mind that many more songs will enter the competition this month. Then a lot of time passes between here to May. If we take the calculations of the OGAE's ranking of "Occidentali's Karma", Italy should have won easily and yet finished sixth. Sobral in that ranking doesn't even come in the top 5.

 

[Mrm]

Oh and then there's CHAKRAS who I declared as possible Eurovision winners one afternoon as I watched them go "la la la la la" at the Belarus auditions. 350/1 is ridiculously tempting considering the success of some of my past crazy predictions.

My adorable shaman Olena Uutai, who was in Britain's got talent will join them!

Watch out, CHAKRAS are coming in full force!!