Betting Odds 2020

[Realest]

It took longer than usual, but here they are.

1 Sweden 4% 11 11 10
2 Norway 3% 11
3 Russia 3% 11 11 11
4 Bulgaria artist: Victoria 3% 12
5 Armenia 3% 13
5 Azerbaijan 3% 13
5 Croatia 3% 13
5 Czech Republic 3% 13
5 Lithuania 3% 13
5 Portugal 3% 13
5 Romania 3% 13
5 Serbia 3% 13
5 Ukraine 3% 13
14 Denmark 3% 14
14 Iceland 3% 14
14 Latvia 3% 14
14 Poland 3% 14
14 Switzerland 3% 14
19 Belarus 3% 15
19 Belgium artist: Hooverphonic 3% 15
19 Finland 3% 15
19 Greece 3% 15
19 North Macedonia 3% 15
24 Moldova 2% 16
24 Slovenia 2% 16
26 Italy 2% 17 17 13
27 Australia 2% 17 17 15
28 Austria Vincent Bueno - Alive 2% 17
28 Georgia artist: Tornike Kipiani 2% 17
28 Malta 2% 17
31 Netherlands 2% 17 17 22
32 Cyprus artist: Sandro Nicolas 2% 18
33 San Marino 2% 20
34 France 2% 21 21 16
35 Spain artist: Blas Cantó 2% 21 21 18
36 Estonia 2% 25
37 Israel 2% 26 26 21
38 Germany 1% 34 34 27
39 Ireland 1% 34 34 30
39 United Kingdom 1% 34 34 30
41
Albania Arilena Ara - Shaj 1% 65

 

[njdevils94]

We have one song.

 

[0scar]

We have one song.

And that one's last in the odds

 

[choda]

Why Italy so low?

 

[Sammy]

So the odds think ANYTHING that could be elected in the weeks to come is potentially better than Albania this year....
That must be harsh for all those who already predicted a top 10 result. But there's still time.

 

[njdevils94]

So the odds think ANYTHING that could be elected in the weeks to come is potentially better than Albania this year....
That must be harsh for all those who already predicted a top 10 result. But there's still time.

No its basically saying Albania won't win ESC but not that it will do poorly necessarily.

 

[Sammy]

No its basically saying Albania won't win ESC but not that it will do poorly necessarily.

Actually it says anyone else has bigger chances of winning. Which is devastating. You are right - it's only the winning odds but it still indicates to a certain extent how well a song is received in general. Of course not at this early stage. But to be dead last when the song comes out happens VERY rarely, as far as I can remember.

 

[John1]

Why is so freaking high every damn time?

 

[Citelis]

Because their entries are usually amazing!

 

[Charly]

Why is so freaking high every damn time?

Blame Christer Björkman and his fanatical views of win win win win win

 

[Realest]

Why is so freaking high every damn time?

Based on their History and the Expectations.

 

[John1]

Blame Christer Björkman and his fanatical views of win win win win win

glad he will be gone next year omg

 

[Zonne147]

Actually it says anyone else has bigger chances of winning. Which is devastating. You are right - it's only the winning odds but it still indicates to a certain extent how well a song is received in general. Of course not at this early stage. But to be dead last when the song comes out happens VERY rarely, as far as I can remember.

Last year since I remember sth similar happened with "Ktheju Tokës", even after all songs were released I remember to see that song very close to the bottom but we all knew she was not going to finish 39-41 at the end. The same happened with "Kruna", when it was started to be announced as a very possible qualifier (I guess when rehearsals started) she was never higher than the 25th place, while Portugal and Belgium were always higher than Serbia.

It may be the same this time (or not!), since we just know one song that won't probably win. I think it's too early to make predictions, let's wait for the 2nd one, and for the all the others...

 

[MalagaToledo]

Why is so freaking high every damn time?

Sweden? Have you ever watched Eurovision? One word: Jurry!

 

[ESC94]

I think at this early stage betting odds basically tell you nothing.

 

[HayashiM]

Actually it says anyone else has bigger chances of winning. Which is devastating. You are right - it's only the winning odds but it still indicates to a certain extent how well a song is received in general. Of course not at this early stage. But to be dead last when the song comes out happens VERY rarely, as far as I can remember.

I don't think it's that devastating (though it's not very bright either, of course). See, the odds for all other countries are based on the yet unknown entries - some of those will be brilliant and once revealed, their odds will improve, and others won't be that good so their odds could go much lower than Shaj's. What we should be comparing that 1/65 to is the likely distribution of the odds once everything is revealed - for instance the last year's odds, where 1/65 is somewhere in the middle of the road I believe. Another way to look at it: if everyone had the exact same chances, the odds would be 1/43 (actually more like 1/50 because of the margin the betting companies tend to take). So 1/65 is slightly worse than the average, but not really a catastrophy.
Of course, as already pointed out, odds don't mean much at this point anyway

 

[Sammy]

I don't think it's that devastating (though it's not very bright either, of course). See, the odds for all other countries are based on the yet unknown entries - some of those will be brilliant and once revealed, their odds will improve, and others won't be that good so their odds could go much lower than Shaj's. What we should be comparing that 1/65 to is the likely distribution of the odds once everything is revealed - for instance the last year's odds, where 1/65 is somewhere in the middle of the road I believe. Another way to look at it: if everyone had the exact same chances, the odds would be 1/43 (actually more like 1/50 because of the margin the betting companies tend to take). So 1/65 is slightly worse than the average, but not really a catastrophy.
Of course, as already pointed out, odds don't mean much at this point anyway

I can only say - I don't remember any song being last in the odds directly after being released. As you I also think that the odds of Shaj will change over the course of the following weeks but one thing is clear already: it's an iconic bad start.

 

[Citelis]

Netherlands being so high after name of the representer announced means people expect soemthing good?

 

[Realest]

improved 25 Places since Yesterday. Im wondering if its because of Benny Cristo?

1		Italy	7%	8	9	9	11
2		Russia	6%	8.5	11	11	13
3		Sweden	5%	10	11	11	11
4		Norway	5%	10			17
5		Denmark	4%	12			17
6		Netherlands artist: Jeangu Macrooy	4%	10	17	17	24
7		Australia	4%	12	17	17	21
8		Belgium artist: Hooverphonic	4%	15	17	17	18
9		Ukraine	3%	18			14
10		Czech Republic	3%	17			20
11		Iceland	3%	21			15
12		Bulgaria artist: Victoria	3%	21			18
13		Spain Blas Cantó - Universo	3%	12	21	21	46
14		Malta	3%	23			17
15		Poland	3%	18			34
16		Azerbaijan	2%	21			34
17		France artist: Tom Leeb	2%	21	26	26	22
18		San Marino	2%	26			32
19		Greece	2%	26			36
20		Germany	2%	15	34	34	42
21		Lithuania	2%	34			17
22		Ireland	2%	34	26	26	85
23		Switzerland	2%	36			29
24		Portugal	2%	36			32
25		Cyprus artist: Sandro Nicolas	2%	36			36
25		Romania	2%	36			36
27		United Kingdom	2%	36	34	34	50
28		Serbia	2%	26			75
29		Armenia	2%	41			26
30		Finland	2%	34			50
30		Latvia	2%	34			50
32		Israel	1%	56	26	26	85
33		Moldova	1%	41			46
34		Estonia	1%	36			75
35		Slovenia	1%	21			130
36		Austria Vincent Bueno - Alive	1%	51			38
37		Albania Arilena Ara - Shaj	1%	34			120
38		North Macedonia artist: Vasil	1%	51			65
39		Belarus	1%	36			120
40		Croatia	1%	61			85
40		Georgia artist: Tornike Kipiani	1%	61			85

 

[Preuss]

It's got nothing to say but I saw now that Italy overtook Russia