Fan flops/Dark Horses

[Ana Raquel]

Now that we have all the songs (kinda) we can try and guess who will do better/worse than expected

FF:
DH: maybe even ?

 

[Ana Raquel]

Now that I think about it I might have more DH than I should because I was also thinking of and oop

might be a fan flop too but I hope I am wrong and I am more certain on those three I mentioned (although they should qualify)

 

[rasmuslights]

Dark horse: Armenia. I think this can easily do a top 5.

Flop: Croatia. I see this nowhere in the top 5. Cyprus and Georgia will also both NQ.

 

[0scar]

Fan flop: ( I don't think this will win?)
Dark horse:

 

[RainyWoods]

Will perform worse than expected:

Misses the final entirely:

Each of these have issues. Croatia is just outclassed by other novelty entries and the performance as it is will do a lot less than people think. I don't see it anywhere near being a runaway public fave like Cha Cha Cha was, and the juries will tank it harder too. It may just creep into the top 10. Ukraine is just very middling. I don't see the public voting much for it at all. Switzerland meanwhile I think can get some surprisingly strong jury support but I don't think the public will bite hard enough, if at all. And with Estonia, I guess if there was any year for a Leto Svet-esque entry to pass, it's now without juries.. but everything about it to me screams flop.

Dark horses:

Armenia I think this year fills in the Moldova gap of fun, folksy cheerful stuff that does much better than we all expect. Georgia and Ireland meanwhile both return to the final at last. Unsure how each will do there but I think they potential is fairly high for both of them.


is hard to talk about as I see two extremes with it. Some fans I feel are way, way overrating its chances and others say it will come last. My guess is it gathers maybe about 70-80 jury points and about 10 from the public (so maybe 18th-19th?). also ends up with a similar score but will Serhat style it with a nice chunk of about 80 or so points from the public with much lower from the jury, although if the message translates well to the stage perhaps it could pick up some surprising support?

 

[Looren]

Fan flop : (can see it top 5 but never win)
Dark horse :

 

[Realest]

will do much better than the Odds indicate.
will do much worse (<20 Televotes in the Final).
will qualify
One of wont.

 

[empo21]

won't do as well as the fans think. I don't even think will qualify tbh but the bubble seems to go hard for it

shock qualifier

 

[Fluke]

Fan flops: Norway - only appeals to Nordic and nearby countries, comes across as total noise to most others.

Netherlands might barely qualify, staging is gonna be a big factor here, we have no idea what they're planning.

Ukraine and Italy might end up low in the final, one's too difficult and one's just unremarkable among other uptempo entries.

Dark horse: Latvia - incredibly simple, soulful performance, the complete opposite of everything else this year, top 10 is very much possible.

Armenia's too early to say if they're a "dark horse" or actually expected to do well, but i see a top 10 for sure.

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

Fan flop - Norway. I think it will Q but lacks mass appeal for televote and I don't see much jury love coming its way either.

Switzerland feels extremely high risk and tbh I dunno if they'll pull it off. I have concerns.

I don't think Croatia will 'flop' but neither do I think it's winning. Top 5 or top 10 would still be a very respectable result.

Dark horse - Ireland. I think it's a safe qualifier and with the right staging could even be on the left of the scoreboard. Ireland doesn't have a good staging record but I suspect this year that Bambie might get her vision executed.

 

[0scar]

I cannot believe I didn't include in my list of fan flops because it's the most obvious FF of the season in my eyes
I'm gonna exclude from my FF list as I heard it being played at the office yesterday? Couldn't believe my ears

So new list,
Fan flops:
Tanked by juries, not massively loved by the public as is suggested in the fandom
Not massively loved by the public as is suggested in the fandom
High up in the juries, not so much in the public. Even risks not qualifying but will do an Estonia 2023 if it qualifies.
As some pointed out already, I cannot see it winning

Dark horses:
If performed well it's pleasant enough to gather a decent amount of jury and televoting points. Possible top 10.
Can qualify and do better in the final with juries, around 17th?
If the live version has improved from ESCZ, can do similar to Czechia 2022 or even better if it gets a better slot in the running order

 

[gigi_copp3]

FAN FLOPS
(this is a list of possible fan flops, it's not sure that everyone of these will fail, but some might).

: usually, girlbops always flop (unless they're really really special and with fantastic performances like 2018, 2022, 2023), and I can't see how this could be really outstanding for a first-time viewer.

: first two minutes are a little bit bland, the last minute might be epic... yes, it might. It's not sure that it will be.

: Ohh, the favourite to win, but there's something that makes me doubt this might be a winner. Bad vocals? Overexposure of this type of entries? Closeness to Cha Cha Cha? We'll see.

: Again, same speech as Austria. Zari is an ethnic girlbop, but are we sure this will stand out the most?

DARK HORSES

: Song is bland as hell, but they had a fantastic performance back in 2019 in Australia Decides. If they manage to get a good R/O in the SF they might stand out the most in a weak 2nd half of SF1.

: This seems pretty hopeless in SF1 first half against six stronger entries. Maybe the new rule change might allow every country of the 1st halfs to be advantaged, and we could have a 7/10 qualifiers from here. This is not that bad.

: The performance is stupid and authentic, and we have seen how much televote support these kind of entries might garner ( 2022 ugh, 2023)

: Controversial take, but... this might get a really high score in the televoting. There's no anti-vote, and there's a lot of people all across Europe that support Israel in the war. Some juries will blank it, but a good televote score and a decent jury score might be enough to win/finish top 3 in an open year like this (I reckon the winner will get max. 450 points)

: This is not that original, but maybe it could stand out in the weak SF1 2nd half. And in the final a lot of juries will give them a "Welcome back Luxembourg" present. Maybe not that huge as Gualazzi back in 2011, but still enough to garner a top 15 finish.

: I disagree with all of you putting Ulveham in the Fan Flops. This is so special, and the performance is really outstanding and pleasant. Comparison with 2023 do not have a sense to me, since Eaea had a difficult rhythm to follow. I see this more as the new 2021, it will get a lot of points in the televoting, and for the same speech I made for Israel, in an open year like this it might be the winner.

: Song is not special, but Olly is recognized as a fantastic performer. He might have a vision in his head and the performance could be special.

 

[ESC94]

FAN FLOPS
(this is a list of possible fan flops, it's not sure that everyone of these will fail, but some might).

: usually, girlbops always flop (unless they're really really special and with fantastic performances like 2018, 2022, 2023), and I can't see how this could be really outstanding for a first-time viewer.

: first two minutes are a little bit bland, the last minute might be epic... yes, it might. It's not sure that it will be.

: Ohh, the favourite to win, but there's something that makes me doubt this might be a winner. Bad vocals? Overexposure of this type of entries? Closeness to Cha Cha Cha? We'll see.

: Again, same speech as Austria. Zari is an ethnic girlbop, but are we sure this will stand out the most?

DARK HORSES

: Song is bland as hell, but they had a fantastic performance back in 2019 in Australia Decides. If they manage to get a good R/O in the SF they might stand out the most in a weak 2nd half of SF1.

: This seems pretty hopeless in SF1 first half against six stronger entries. Maybe the new rule change might allow every country of the 1st halfs to be advantaged, and we could have a 7/10 qualifiers from here. This is not that bad.

: The performance is stupid and authentic, and we have seen how much televote support these kind of entries might garner ( 2022 ugh, 2023)

: Controversial take, but... this might get a really high score in the televoting. There's no anti-vote, and there's a lot of people all across Europe that support Israel in the war. Some juries will blank it, but a good televote score and a decent jury score might be enough to win/finish top 3 in an open year like this (I reckon the winner will get max. 450 points)

: This is not that original, but maybe it could stand out in the weak SF1 2nd half. And in the final a lot of juries will give them a "Welcome back Luxembourg" present. Maybe not that huge as Gualazzi back in 2011, but still enough to garner a top 15 finish.

: I disagree with all of you putting Ulveham in the Fan Flops. This is so special, and the performance is really outstanding and pleasant. Comparison with 2023 do not have a sense to me, since Eaea had a difficult rhythm to follow. I see this more as the new 2021, it will get a lot of points in the televoting, and for the same speech I made for Israel, in an open year like this it might be the winner.

: Song is not special, but Olly is recognized as a fantastic performer. He might have a vision in his head and the performance could be special.

The rule change with voting from the beginning only applies to the final.

 

[theditz83]

Fan flops:
- I see a similar trajectory to 2021 sadly, opening the final and ending up in the 20s in terms of finishing position.
- the only reason this will do well is if it gets an amazing R/O slot between lots of speedy, noisy entries (like etc.)

Dark horses:
- people are sleeping hard on this, the production and structure of the song is super-dynamic and I know it will be elevated with a mesmerising performance.
- not going to challenge for the win, but I see decent jury and public support for this style of entry, I reckon a placing of between 5th and 8th
- I predict I highly artistic performance with great lighting and camera work. This had a great impact when it released to the fandom, and while hype is dying off a little, the casual viewers should have that same impact on the night and vote for it.

Edit: lord above, didn't realise the amount of white, blue and red in that mix of flags I just posted - is that a good sign for and too perhaps??? Haha

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

Armenia another dark horse. Catchy song with ethnic elements and the singer seems very fun and charismatic.

 

[SirPeterGriffin]

Fan flops:
- I feel like i'm having a deja vu. People proclaiming it a winner right after its reveal only to lose steam. It's a great party song but this is a year filled of those that are more high-concept plus Austria tends to miss potential and go cheap with their staging. It'll earn a respectable result, probably consistent with last year but that's about it.
- Unless we're betting on another massive display of solidarity from the public, i don't see where this winning potential comes from. It's too low key for a first time listen nor does it fit the juries preference. Easy top 10 ofc but nothing like the odds are insisting on.
- Good luck fitting rap verses, opera and a dnb instrumental all in 3 minutes without sounding too exhausting. This can become a serious trainwreck.

Dark horses:
- Are we still pretending this one ain't gonna be a televote magnet? All they need is to control the chaos on display. Getting some strong Alcohol Is Free vibes with it.
- She's a phenomenal vocalist, the song is quite powerful and there is plenty of eurovision experience behind her team to pull off a thrilling performance capable of selling its misterious story. Could give the best result in a while for them.
- This is the jury bait to end all jury baits. And tbh, the public will connect with this specially if he maintains that no-mic acapella section.

 

[jatojo]

My theory is that falsetto songs tend to disappoint. In that respect, it's a paradox that the only major falsetto success came from Switzerland, while Switzerland this year is one of the entries I expect to do worse than predicted because of the falsetto.

One of the weaknesses of falsetto is that it's relatively hard to disguise bad falsetto by means of backing vocals.

 

[Paco Roca]

Dark horses:







Flops:

 

[boyardor]

Flop:




Dark horse:

 

[lasse braun]

top3 flops:

dark horses:

a dark horse is for me an act who is momently far away from the left half.