Following Nudiecrudi's correct theory and observing the betting odds as the basis of the reasoning, we can hypothesize who the dark horses and flops of the season could be.
Dark horses:
Spain: currently twenty-seventh, if he managed to enter the top fifteen we could define him as a dark horse. There is a slight potential and it is based on a simple but catchy melodic base and an irreverent approach. The top 10 is an illusion. It's unachievable.
Estonia: currently twenty-second if it reached a top 15 or a low top 10 it would be a dark horse. More than that is impossible.
Norway: Currently 15th could be a dark horse reaching a top 5 or competing for the win. Norway is the clearest example of a probable dark horse.
Finland: currently fourteenth and fiercely hated by the Bubble could enter the top 10 and be a dark horse.
Lithuania: currently thirteenth, if it reached sixth/seventh position it would be a dark horse.
Dark horse/flop limbo:
Serbia: currently eighteenth but loved madly by the fandom could either enter the top 10 or top 5, or be the Senhit (collapsing in the final) or the Ronela Hajati of the season (not qualifying).
Flop:
Austria: currently twelfth may not qualify or follow the path of We Are Domi.
Croatia and the Netherlands: given the clamor that hovers around Croatian basic rock (which I find stronger than the Netherlands only in terms of a tested staging) and the Dutch joke-folk song (which I consider stronger because amidst the joke has a political message), if both were released or one of the two left the top 5 it would be a flop.
Switzerland: currently fifth may not qualify or fail in the final. The cause? A staging and a live interpretation did not live up to expectations.
UK: currently eleventh could scrape the bottom. "Dizzy" is a good song but it's flat and emotionless. Only Olly's name still keeps the UK competitive. If Olly had been called Isaak he would have been laughed at and slammed down.
Ireland: currently sixteenth could make a vocal and staging disaster and not qualify. Compared to the 2022 Irish representatives who everyone thought were dead on arrival, the small hopes here will make the possible NQ even more shocking.
Greece: currently eighth and surrounded by immense hype, it could risk not qualifying or finishing in the middle of the table.
Belgium: currently sixth and in contention for the final victory, in case of failure of the staging, it could collapse. Given the song's enormous emotional impact, a position below the top 5 is a failure.
Final thoughts:
Ukraine and Italy will do well on average and this makes them dangerous opponents. Israel will follow its average path which will see it fluctuate from eighth to twelfth position. France can compete for victory only because it is the only true classical ballad of the competition and for Slimane's powerful voice because otherwise it is the typical French baguette (only the filling changes); I predict a guaranteed top 10 for France. Sweden will fail in the televoting but will be kissed by the juries. The rest is more or less unmemorable. Only Slovenia could fall into the flop category in the event of a failure in staging and San Marino dark horse qualify surprisingly with Megara.
