Fan flops/Dark Horses

[jatojo]

I am one of those few, if not the only one, who has noticed the overrating of "The Code". Not only do I believe he won't win but that it could be "Eurodrama 2024" with a resounding NQ. “The Code” is difficult to deliver with convincing staging and the experimental musical construction leads it to be difficult for Nemo to handle vocally (it won't sound like it does in the studio).

It could go like with fan-favourite Ryk in Germany - that people don't quite "get it" before the song is over. However, judging by the liveshow I've seen from Austria, it seemed Nemo's voice is strong - he does deliver.

 

[martin]

Dark Horses:

With everyone talking about Gaza. I could see a lot of people vote for Israel because they want to show Propalestina people a message. Could easy ending up in top 3 in televoting.

Only 14 in the odds. I could see this go right into top 10 in televoting and jury

Is still war in Ukraine and this songs is much stronger than last year entry. I think Ukraine will get a lot of votes in East Europe and some part in West.

I think this will Q to final and i could see Jury will give this or Slovenia a very good score. That could give a surprice top 10 place in final

Fan Flop
Nr 7 in OGAE vote. I could see this ending up to be a NQ. Or a least a botnom 5 in final.

Typical entry who a loved by fans, but i don,t think it will work on the night. Other entry will stand more out and Spain will be not be happy

This is 3 in odds and i can,t see the jury will vote much for it. Also i,m not sure the people will love it soo much and we have many joke/show entry this entry.

Very popular by some fans, but i don,t think we going to get a top 10 this year. More perhaps 18-20 place

I also think all the nordic entry will not be top 10. The best chance is Sweden because of jury

 

[Judas]

- Czechia Q's (not gonna happen)

I am hopeful that she will qualify. Her vocals sound much better in more recent performances.

 

[MojVoda]

Dark horses



No one talking about the song. The eastern grey mass of the televote will help this to top 10, top 15 juries too.



One of the few ballads. Barley making it to grand final but while there juries help Portugal for a surprise top 10 results.

Fan flops



Fans thinks Israel will be top 10 in televotes. The song will end up like Sweden 2018.



I like the song very much, final delivery won't be as strong many think. Croatia remain in top 10 but no win



Belarus isn't even allowed to take part.

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

I think Spain will flop. I don't see it getting great televote or jury love.

 

[jatojo]

I think Spain will flop. I don't see it getting great televote or jury love.

Spain does get a lot of votes in the official OGAE votings at the moment. I can't quite explain it, except that OGAE probably has a penchant for old ladies who got their faces fixed but not their voices.

 

[Ted Talks]

Spain does get a lot of votes in the official OGAE votings at the moment. I can't quite explain it, except that OGAE probably has a penchant for older ladies who got their faces fixed but not their voices.

Spain very much feels like a song for the fans - and the fans that never vote and have no intention of doing so.

That means it’ll probably have little to no wider appeal with the general public as from their perspective they’ll just an older woman who can barely sing (I’m being kind) and some men strutting about half naked.

If anything is going to get the votes, it’s the naked-ish men. Says it all really!

 

[Paco Roca]

Many have talked about what they think are the flops and dark horses, the possible surprises, but one variant is forgotten every year: the old generation. This generation, a substantial mass in an increasingly older Europe, which follows the ESC as an occasional spectator often subverts the predictions of the Bubble extremists. Their vote is not unpredictable. We know more or less what he likes. In fact, I don't understand how many can shout about the success of Croatia, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Greece or high positions for Ireland which will get a handful of votes from this audience. Now, each of us has tastes, sometimes unique in our own way, but the YouTuber's grandmother has shown us more or less who will get approval and the prince of the older generation is Slimane (who, if he doesn't fail, may also have the support of the juries). Ukraine and Italy prove to be super dangerous because they are able to conquer new generation, old generation, members of the Bubble and juries. Norway, as I have always said, is the greatest dark horse in Eurovisual history. Among many powerful horses in the race, the Norwegian one could even win by surprise. "Ulveham" is a qualitative, epic, vocally powerful song, with excellent staging, which knows how to be accepted by the older generation (!) but also a "convenience winner" (the one who knows how to make itself hated the least). When we take all the elements into consideration, going beyond our tastes and beliefs, we may be surprised by a prediction.

Croatia certainly won't flop but they won't achieve what many believe. Switzerland will collapse, Greece will follow a path balanced between average and disaster. Israel will not fly but will do well. Sweden will land on its feet as always. Italy, Ukraine and Norway and who knows Belgium will play for the title. The Netherlands probably won't win the "crazy sounds battle". Serbia is a solid song that will do well but nothing more. Etc...

Before concluding, pay attention to Portugal. From the older generation and from the juries he can take some points. Even if Fado is too niche a genre for me (here if I'm not mistaken mixed with a pinch of Pop) "Grito" isn't dead from the start.

Eurovision 2024: My Grandma's Top 37

Thanks for watching!Flags: SerarpedSONGS:The first semi-final🇮🇪Ireland - Bambie Thug "Doomsday Blue" 🇨🇾Cyprus - Silia Kapsis "Liar"🇱🇹Lithuania - Silves...

youtu.be

 

[nudiecrudi]

Ogae poll top 5 Italy Croatia Switzerland Belgium and France
Eurojury top 5 Switzerland France Italy Croatia Germany
Odds Switzerland Croatia Netherlands Italy Ukraine
Eurovisionworkd poll Croatia Italy Switzerland Netherlands Belgium.
Has ever happened in recent times ( past 10 years) that a winner coming from nowhere 5 days before the rehearsals?
Portugal 2017 was climbing quickly in the odds in this period i remember

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

Why is Germany doing so well in the Eurojury?

 

[Paco Roca]

Why is Germany doing so well in the Eurojury?

Because members of the Eurojury were threatened by a gang of elephants Elephants are no joke, they don't take long to grab you with their trunk.

 

[mup]

Because members of the Eurojury were threatened by a gang of elephants Elephants are no joke, they don't take long to grab you with their trunk.

Who wouldn't give to such lovely big animals?

 

[nudiecrudi]

Who wouldn't give to such lovely big animals?

Italy
France
Luxembourg
Moldova
Belgium
All these countries love tshttps://media.tenor.com/ouB6LqneorkAAAAM/baby-elephant-trunk.gif

 

[Lumina]

Fan Flops: definitely. So overrated for such a basic club song. I can’t see many viewers voting for a stereotype EDM song when there are other songs going in that direction which are much more upbeat and fun and not one long beat the same time.

Dark Horse: I don’t know, there aren’t many songs that do have the potential but the songs that are already on top. Maybe and . Germany is a really good song and very underrated. It‘s a bit basic BUT I think the casual viewer will love it since it’s a song they would totally listen to on the radio. Maybe some will grab the phone and vote for the great voice too. Poland‘s song is actually too weak but it sounds like something that could be playing on the radio so basically the same as Isaak.

 

[Lumina]

Spain does get a lot of votes in the official OGAE votings at the moment. I can't quite explain it, except that OGAE probably has a penchant for old ladies who got their faces fixed but not their voices.

I believe many OGAE members are William Lee Adams level of members which means they stan gay icons and queens, especially when it’s an old fashionista queen they can drool over. This is not the reality on May 11th, 21:00 CET.

 

[musicfan]

Dark Horses:

With everyone talking about Gaza. I could see a lot of people vote for Israel because they want to show Propalestina people a message. Could easy ending up in top 3 in televoting.

That is utter nonsense. Of course some will spin any votes like that, but we aren't dealing with anything like a Ukraine situation.

 

[Chalphon]

I'm calliing it now. Spain will end up last in the final.

 

[gigi_copp3]

DARK HORSES IN THE END:

FAN FAVOURITE FLOPS:

 

[ati0111]

Flop:
Greece, Austria

Dark horse:
Armenia, Slovenia
+Lithuania is TOP3 contender

Correct about Austria and Armenia!!
Greece didn't flop but I knew it's not gonna be in top10
Slovenia? Well, at least they made it to the final
Unfortunately I was very wrong about Lithuania

 

[gigi_copp3]

FAN FLOPS
(this is a list of possible fan flops, it's not sure that everyone of these will fail, but some might).

: usually, girlbops always flop (unless they're really really special and with fantastic performances like 2018, 2022, 2023), and I can't see how this could be really outstanding for a first-time viewer.

: first two minutes are a little bit bland, the last minute might be epic... yes, it might. It's not sure that it will be.

: Ohh, the favourite to win, but there's something that makes me doubt this might be a winner. Bad vocals? Overexposure of this type of entries? Closeness to Cha Cha Cha? We'll see.

: Again, same speech as Austria. Zari is an ethnic girlbop, but are we sure this will stand out the most?

DARK HORSES

: Song is bland as hell, but they had a fantastic performance back in 2019 in Australia Decides. If they manage to get a good R/O in the SF they might stand out the most in a weak 2nd half of SF1.

: This seems pretty hopeless in SF1 first half against six stronger entries. Maybe the new rule change might allow every country of the 1st halfs to be advantaged, and we could have a 7/10 qualifiers from here. This is not that bad.

: The performance is stupid and authentic, and we have seen how much televote support these kind of entries might garner ( 2022 ugh, 2023)

: Controversial take, but... this might get a really high score in the televoting. There's no anti-vote, and there's a lot of people all across Europe that support Israel in the war. Some juries will blank it, but a good televote score and a decent jury score might be enough to win/finish top 3 in an open year like this (I reckon the winner will get max. 450 points)

: This is not that original, but maybe it could stand out in the weak SF1 2nd half. And in the final a lot of juries will give them a "Welcome back Luxembourg" present. Maybe not that huge as Gualazzi back in 2011, but still enough to garner a top 15 finish.

: I disagree with all of you putting Ulveham in the Fan Flops. This is so special, and the performance is really outstanding and pleasant. Comparison with 2023 do not have a sense to me, since Eaea had a difficult rhythm to follow. I see this more as the new 2021, it will get a lot of points in the televoting, and for the same speech I made for Israel, in an open year like this it might be the winner.

: Song is not special, but Olly is recognized as a fantastic performer. He might have a vision in his head and the performance could be special.

I got Austria and Belgium right. Norway was a FFF as well, although I put them in the dark horses.
Read perfectly Luxembourg, got Israel right (apart from the 450 points consideration and the decent jury score which in fact didn't happen)