SpiritofKeiino
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This is the weakest year for me since 2017. Not many songs I like or care about.
Ted Talks
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Well that’s opinions for you.I think it's interesting that you call it a weak year when I've heard and read most people calling it a really strong year because of the diversity in songs with high quality.
If Switzerland wins, then I'm wondering if next year more countries will send more experimental songs. I think that would be pretty cool.
I think it’s a horrifically weak year that feels like a real backward step for the contest with the increase in ‘wacky’ fun acts that all feel like weaker efforts at replicating Cha Cha Cha.It’s like we’ve travelled back to the 00s era of Eurovision this year. It’s a real contrast from the more current and credible few years we’ve been having musically if you ask me.
I only like 5 songs this year - that’s a shocking hit rate for me.
I think we are very much of the same view SpiritofKeiino. 2024 is really weak.
lilka
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ViVillRejv
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My heart says Austria but my brain says that power vocals like France or Switzerland will get higher jury points and therefore win it...
(also some countries are more conservative - If Kaleen leans into a "too sexy" staging similar to the MV not every jury will award her points)
(also some countries are more conservative - If Kaleen leans into a "too sexy" staging similar to the MV not every jury will award her points)
SpiritofKeiino
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I don't see France winning. The song just isn't strong enough, IMO.
Switzerland I'm increasingly thinking will not be pulled off well on the night.
I can't understand the appeal of this Italy song (although the performer is competent) but so far it seems to have one of the best fan reactions? So maybe.
Switzerland I'm increasingly thinking will not be pulled off well on the night.
I can't understand the appeal of this Italy song (although the performer is competent) but so far it seems to have one of the best fan reactions? So maybe.
ViVillRejv
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I too don't get why everyone loves Italy so much. They are becoming the new Sweden in the sense that they can send anything and most eurofans will put them Top 10 no matter what...
Ted Talks
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As someone who really detests the Dutch song, I'd like this to be the case. Sounds awful I know but I genuinely think it is being overhyped to the extent that its (potential) fall would bring a smile to my face.
If it does win, fair enough. I won't throw a strop about it, I just won't be pleased that's all. There's been winners I've hated before, it would be nothing new.
won't win don't worry @Ted Talks Croatia's 20% in the odds is wild, I cannot see it win either. I honestly think we could get a surprise winner, my bet would be on
I believed in a Swiss win but now I'm not really sure anymore, the studio version is amazing but I'm afraid the live version won't be that competitive as I hope for.
nudiecrudi
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I can tell you why you have that feeling.
Because you don't like any of them and you prefer other songs.
You didn't put Ukraine in your list, which by now is second in the odds and has been first for a long time and is well respected by the fans. Ukraine could be in that list for the same reasons you mentioned for the other ones, so I bet you like that song.
About flat performances live, other countries you didn't mention have the same possibility to fail, right?
For example you didn't mention Austria, Belgium, Greece, Switzerland, Lithuania etc, songs that heavily need staging and could fail too.
Himan
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Italy is probably going to win, except maybe a big underdog we don't see or juries liking Netherlands, Croatia or Switzerland out of the blue. I think they will get 1st with the juries and 2nd/3rd with the public. And that is enough to win it. I do think one song will stand out with the televotes and my guess is now that the Netherlands is going to do that. They are probably the contender against Italy. I think a lot of people don't know yet. I mean sure Croatia is ahead in the odds, but still only have about a 1 in 5 chance to win following the bookmakers, so nobody really knows yet.
VikingTiger
Well-known member
After last years Kaarja/Loreen duel there was discussions about the juries and the members of the juries. Several people pointed out that the juries are usually heavily pop-oriented. I think there is a general agreement about that. I wonder if we will see a change in the juries this year. Even if only one pop-friendly jury member from each country is substituted by a rock/rap/alternative/world friendly member, it will have a huge impact on the total juryscores.
At this stage I still think that Italy has the entry and artist that is most likely to score a top 5 in both the televotes and the jury votes. I dont think Italy will mess up the staging. I am expecting a rather simple staging where they let Angelina be the center of attention. She might feel like breath of fresh air amongst all those televote friendly loud performances. Last year Marco Mengoni got almost the same about of points from the juries and the televotes, placing 3rd and 6th respectively. But last year was quite rare - with the top 2 gathering insanely many points.
At this stage I still think that Italy has the entry and artist that is most likely to score a top 5 in both the televotes and the jury votes. I dont think Italy will mess up the staging. I am expecting a rather simple staging where they let Angelina be the center of attention. She might feel like breath of fresh air amongst all those televote friendly loud performances. Last year Marco Mengoni got almost the same about of points from the juries and the televotes, placing 3rd and 6th respectively. But last year was quite rare - with the top 2 gathering insanely many points.
rasmuslights
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All Croatia, Italy, Ukraine, the Netherlands and Switzerland have at least 10 % of winning and no one has more than 17 % according to the odds!
It'll be really exciting.
It'll be really exciting.
HayashiM
Veteran
We won't see a Käärijä level of a televote success this year, the big faves there are bound to crash into each other. You need to score big with the juries.
Who will score big with the juries? There is only one big fat certainty -. Compared to most other frontrunners, we know exactly how the package will look like and if previous years are of any indication, the juries are bound to swallow the hook. Most probably not exactly Loreen style with 340, but something akin to 250 points as with Benjamin, Jon Lundvig and Cornelia is very likely.
Then, there is the 2021 trio as has been pointed out - . I think all can get something respectable from the juries, between 150-200 points. I think has the strongest televote appeal, but still has the lowest jury ceiling. has the big televote advantage because it lacks serious competition in its genre (the only one worth talking about is and as much as it is a fan fave, I really doubt that many people are actually gonna pick up their phone for that song). is very difficult to predict, but at the end of the day, I am unconvinced the televote is there - 100 points, maybe, 150 with some imagination, anything over that - no.
won't have the juries, not when all the other songs are there. Same for and .
is the biggest unknown. Normally, the juries would score it mid to high and televote mid to low. Under the political climat, I think the eventual result could be mid for both, but it is possible the juries won't be affected and the televote will get some boost. Still, I don't think it's very likely.
's song's problem is the rap part. Decent jury score is possible, but rap is a no go to make it good enough.
Lastly, where are and in all this, one might wonder? And the answer is - on the part of the map that has "hic sunt leones" written over and the juries give bugger all about. The only 3 acts to crack 200 jurypoints from this part of Europe since 2016 are Jamala 2016, Kristian 2017 and Tamara 2019, which is 5 years ago, when we also had 4-5 more countries in the competition. I am not counting on the juries here - though I very much hope they can prove me wrong
Did I mention Kristian? Need I say more as for why I believe might actually not flop in the televote this time?
To sum up, I predict and as the frontrunners, and as the possibilities and and as the dark horses. My gut feeling is , but that's probably more of a wishful thinking.
Who will score big with the juries? There is only one big fat certainty -
. Compared to most other frontrunners, we know exactly how the package will look like and if previous years are of any indication, the juries are bound to swallow the hook. Most probably not exactly Loreen style with 340, but something akin to 250 points as with Benjamin, Jon Lundvig and Cornelia is very likely.Then, there is the 2021 trio as has been pointed out -
. I think all can get something respectable from the juries, between 150-200 points. I think has the strongest televote appeal, but still has the lowest jury ceiling. has the big televote advantage because it lacks serious competition in its genre (the only one worth talking about is and as much as it is a fan fave, I really doubt that many people are actually gonna pick up their phone for that song). is very difficult to predict, but at the end of the day, I am unconvinced the televote is there - 100 points, maybe, 150 with some imagination, anything over that - no. won't have the juries, not when all the other songs are there. Same for and . is the biggest unknown. Normally, the juries would score it mid to high and televote mid to low. Under the political climat, I think the eventual result could be mid for both, but it is possible the juries won't be affected and the televote will get some boost. Still, I don't think it's very likely.'s song's problem is the rap part. Decent jury score is possible, but rap is a no go to make it good enough.Lastly, where are
and in all this, one might wonder? And the answer is - on the part of the map that has "hic sunt leones" written over and the juries give bugger all about. The only 3 acts to crack 200 jurypoints from this part of Europe since 2016 are Jamala 2016, Kristian 2017 and Tamara 2019, which is 5 years ago, when we also had 4-5 more countries in the competition. I am not counting on the juries here - though I very much hope they can prove me wrong Did I mention Kristian? Need I say more as for why I believe
might actually not flop in the televote this time?To sum up, I predict
and as the frontrunners, and as the possibilities and and as the dark horses. My gut feeling is , but that's probably more of a wishful thinking.
Sammy
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Songwise there is no clear favorite here. So again the staging and the dynamics in the two weeks prior to the contest will be decisive.
Everything is looking good for Croatia, but we‘ve seen bigger favorites loosing their momentum close to the contest, so it’s not in the bag yet, but as for now chances are high for Zagreb 2025.
Personally I don’t think Israel can do a Ukraine 2022, because the fandom is really devided on that topic whereas in 2022 the support for Ukraine was more or less unanimous.
Everything is looking good for Croatia, but we‘ve seen bigger favorites loosing their momentum close to the contest, so it’s not in the bag yet, but as for now chances are high for Zagreb 2025.
Personally I don’t think Israel can do a Ukraine 2022, because the fandom is really devided on that topic whereas in 2022 the support for Ukraine was more or less unanimous.
DonHamstre
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- April 15, 2024
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Mix of hopes and fears:
1 Italy
2 Switzerland
3 Croatia
4 Ukraine
5 Luxembourg
6 Israel
7 Netherlands
8 Sweden
9 Finland
10 Armenia
1 Italy
2 Switzerland
3 Croatia
4 Ukraine
5 Luxembourg
6 Israel
7 Netherlands
8 Sweden
9 Finland
10 Armenia
ZoboCamel
Well-known member
I've spent some time (too much time) over the last couple of days making a spreadsheet that takes some of the prediction metrics/proxies we have so far, and extrapolates from those to try and find the final results; thought I'd share them here!
Details/methodology below for anyone interested, though I've spoilered them out for people who just want to see the projection without all of that waffle. I'll note here, though, that the specific point values noted for the semifinals will be far from correct. Specifically, the winning songs of each semi are shown with more points than is mathematically possible, and the lower-ranked songs are shown with far less points than they will inevitably get. The rankings are still a reasonable metric, though, and there's no issue with the points distribution for the final. I might try to update the sheet at some point to fix the weird semifinal scores. In short, the nature of the data I'm using (e.g. OGAE results only showing the top 10 per country) make it hard to show per-semi-final results for each voter, so the semifinal results here are more just used to determine what countries will qualify, as opposed to trying to accurately predict how many points a country will get in the semi.
Apologies in advance for the ugly stats; I'm not a graphic designer!
SF1:
SF2:
Final:
Note that this isn't my personal prediction, and there are plenty of things it doesn't take into account: voting allies/diaspora in semifinals, running order advantages, odds, recent live performances, staging in May, songs that casual viewers like more than the fandom, etc. This is just what the EuroJury and OGAE figures (and to a lesser extent, Scoreboard and Discord rankings) would point to. I'm pretty sure it's underrating the televote for Finland, the Netherlands, and probably Ukraine, for example, and overrating the televote for Belgium and Slovenia. But I find it interesting to see!
I've gotta say, though, I would find it hilarious if Germany actually winds up coming in 7th place with a single televote point...
Details/methodology below for anyone interested, though I've spoilered them out for people who just want to see the projection without all of that waffle. I'll note here, though, that the specific point values noted for the semifinals will be far from correct. Specifically, the winning songs of each semi are shown with more points than is mathematically possible, and the lower-ranked songs are shown with far less points than they will inevitably get. The rankings are still a reasonable metric, though, and there's no issue with the points distribution for the final. I might try to update the sheet at some point to fix the weird semifinal scores. In short, the nature of the data I'm using (e.g. OGAE results only showing the top 10 per country) make it hard to show per-semi-final results for each voter, so the semifinal results here are more just used to determine what countries will qualify, as opposed to trying to accurately predict how many points a country will get in the semi.
Apologies in advance for the ugly stats; I'm not a graphic designer!
SF1:
SF2:
Final:
Note that this isn't my personal prediction, and there are plenty of things it doesn't take into account: voting allies/diaspora in semifinals, running order advantages, odds, recent live performances, staging in May, songs that casual viewers like more than the fandom, etc. This is just what the EuroJury and OGAE figures (and to a lesser extent, Scoreboard and Discord rankings) would point to. I'm pretty sure it's underrating the televote for Finland, the Netherlands, and probably Ukraine, for example, and overrating the televote for Belgium and Slovenia. But I find it interesting to see!
I've gotta say, though, I would find it hilarious if Germany actually winds up coming in 7th place with a single televote point...
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