I think, in the end,
will gain the most votes amongst the novelty acts: it has some gimmicks, but I feel it has a more "professional" attitude than
, that will split the votes of the "pure fun". Not sure about jury support, but he might gain some votes like Käärijä last year and end in a respectable top 7: Baby Lasagna improved a lot, he is a lot better on both vocals and charisma.
is there: Angelina will get some jury support and have a decent televote score (maybe top 5 if the "producer's choice" is transformed into a R/O around 20), she's fantastic, and I really hope she wins because she deserves it.
I feel
's performance might be too "strange" for a casual viewer and even the juries: The Code is an unconventional song, and their outfit it's way too distractive. Nemo has the vocals, but
2018 and
2015 had as well, and they received poor jury votes. I think Nemo has a shot to win, but their window is shortening and shortening: I predict low top 10, the staging is good and it might avoid a Who The Hell Is Edgar?
is the most likely jury winner, it might be even a runaway jury winner. I'm not that sure about the televote support: I can see some people voting it because it's "emotional", in a Marco Mengoni scenario, but a lot of coincedences has to happen in order to win: runaway jury winner+good televoting+no one getting runaway televote win.
... well... as I said in the Baby Lasagna paragraph, the Croatian left the "pure fun novelty act group", meanwhile Joost fully entered it, with the chicken and the funny images on the background. He has to split his votes with
and maybe
, which are worse, but all 3 appeal to the Let 3 public and not to the Käärijä public.
I'll give a mention to my dark horse,
. I'm the only one on their hype train, but everything about their performance is perfect. If they get a good R/O in the final, they might have a Shum. There's more Scandinavian countries this year than Eastern countries in 2021, there's a lot of room for an high number of votes. If juries respect them and they get an high score in the televoting, they might get their top 3.
In the end, I forgot someone. Yes,
: I don't think EBU/Swedish productors should want them to win, it would be too close to 2022 and give some kind of backlash to the contest. Political interferences aside, the song's quite there: there's rap, there's a good voice, there's 1944, there's Solovej, there's Shum, there's Stefania. Televote will be good, maybe top 3, maybe a win (not runaway), but I can see some "neutrals" not voting Ukraine because "they're tired of Ukraine" or whatever: it's sad, it's quite disrespectful by me saying this, but I sadly have this feeling. I fear juries will underestimate this: remember, there's rap, and rap is a repellent for juries.
Oh, there's
as well: they're not out of contention, since there's a lot of Israel supporters all around Europe that will vote for this whatever they like the song or not. This will transform into a massive televote score. Juries, on the other side, will have a strange attitude towards it: a lot will blank it and make it lose some low points, but some might reward Israel over their own merits because "they're here" or whatever. As I said before, EBU should really avoid an Israeli win: if an Ukranian win, as I said earlier, would "give some kind of backlash to the contest", an Israeli win would kill Eurovision Song Contest and make it lose its credibility.
