I think Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, or Armenia are safe bets. They are the most competitive bops with sexy productions and big names. All three of them are top 5 minimum.
Japan also has a chance I suppose, but it’s a song people either LOVE or getting really annoyed of. I can see this getting high points from many, but getting the last place in the rankings by the rest. Not sure if that’s enough for a victory, but polarized songs use to do great in the Eurovision point system. So I think I will get a top 5 this time as well.
Sao Tome and Israel will probably get a big portion of the right-side pot votes. As “Pariah” is a very solid rock ballad with the sharp songwriting of Steven Wilson, people who are into that will vote for it. “Te Amo” is a very simple and easily digestible song, with the down-to-earth quality and the surprisingly efficient use of the African elements in the composition that might generate Pot F votes.
And lastly, stuff like Vietnam and Thailand are probably in the top 10 too. They don’t scream winners, but all of them have the right features most listeners will find enjoyment in and might get points from at least half of the vote sets.