Who will qualify from each SF?

[Realest]

Who will qualify from Semifinal 1 2024?

Lets predict the 10 Qualifier from Semifinal 1.

www.escunited.com

Who will qualify from Semifinal 2 2024?

Lets predict the 10 Qualifiers from Semifinal 2.

www.escunited.com

 

[goncalovieira]

After RO...

Semifinal 1

Locks



Almost there



Borderline




Low Chance



The last three are chanceless, in my opinion.
The RO it self made Serbia and Slovenia really dirty. Portugal and Luxembourg were the lucky ones here.
About Ireland, even though the RO spot is not great, all the concept about the videoclip took some points here.
Semifinal 2 is way stronger, tho.

 

[anabanana2000]

My predictions (before pre-parties/ post RO)

Semi Final 1
Q -
Borderline -
NQ -

Semi Final 2
Q -
Borderline -
NQ -

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

I'm starting to think Georgia could make it, if Nutsa gives a strong performance and if the staging is energetic enough. I'm not convinced that Albania will be saved by diaspora votes.

 

[ESC Athens]

I'm starting to think Georgia could make it, if Nutsa gives a strong performance and if the staging is energetic enough. I'm not convinced that Albania will be saved by diaspora votes.

Diaspora votes or allies can't save a song if it's bad. Last year, Greece was in a very good R.O. and in easy SF with lots of allies and diaspora votes chances. Yet, it only got 14 points (12 from Cyprus and 2 from Armenia). Albania has to show a very interesting staging to advance, but for now this doesn't seem so likely.

 

[randajad]

Diaspora votes or allies can't save a song if it's bad.

True, they need something that they can get behind, either a great song or a recognisable face. There are artists that diaspora would vote even if their songs were just silence.

 

[ati0111]

My current prediction
Semi1
SURE
1.Croatia
2.Ukraine
3.Lithuania

LIKELY
4.Slovenia
5.Serbia

MAYBE
6.Finland
7.Ireland
8.Luxembourg
9.Cyprus
10.Poland

11.Portugal
12.Australia

UNLIKELY
13.Moldova
14.Azerbaijan

NO
15.Iceland

Semi2
VERY LIKELY
1.Netherlands
2.Belgium
3.Israel
4.Switzerland

LIKELY
5.Armenia
6.Norway

MAYBE
7.Estonia
8.Austria
9.Greece
10.Albania

11.Latvia
12.San Marino
13.Denmark
14.Georgia

UNLIKELY
15.Czechia
16.Malta

 

[GRE]

I will try to predict the exact order =>

SF1 =>
1. Ukraine
2. Croatia
3. Finland
4. Lithuania
5. Luxembourg
6. Poland
7. Serbia
8. Ireland
9. Azerbaijan
10. Australia
--------------------
11. Cyprus
12. Moldova
13. Portugal
14. Iceland
15. Slovenia


SF2=>
1. Netherlands
2. Estonia
3. Armenia
4. Austria
5. Greece
6. Israel
7. Belgium
8. Switzerland
9. San Marino
10. Denmark
----------------------
11. Norway
12. Georgia
13. Czechia
14. Albania
15. Latvia
16. Malta

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

I'm unconvinced that Portugal is safe. Personally I've tried a few times and can't gel with the song, nor can I hum it. I suspect viewers may not connect with it.
For now I think it will qualify but I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't.

 

[goncalovieira]

Portugal is a lock Q.
No chance.

Iceland, Moldova, Azerbaijan and Australia are chanceless. Apart from the fact that Ireland and Slovenia are not that strong...

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

Updating my SF2 NQs to: Albania, Denmark, Malta, Czechia, San Marino and Latvia.

I have moved Georgia to a 'borderline Q' and moved Denmark to a NQ.

 

[Synergise]

Okay, final prediction for Semi 1 having seen the rehearsal clips. I really thought Moldova would absolutely bring it with the staging this year, but they've left her hanging to dry, so she's gone from a borderline qualifier to an almost guaranteed NQ for me. I have Australia going through instead but on a very low score - this semi has ended up feeling quite weak, and I feel like of the borderline entries this year, Australia has the best chance of scoring a consistent amount of low points from many countries to get into a qualifying position ahead of Slovenia, who I can't help but feel is going to struggle outside of Croatia and Serbia.

Mediocre staging, vocals, and the poor running order are going to hurt Cyprus, but even though I have them 12th here, I think they're a more likely qualifier than Slovenia because they're more likely to get the low positions (8th-10th) in most countries than Slovenia is (at the expense of Australia).

Country	Points	12 points from:
Croatia	163	Serbia, Slovenia, Australia Germany
Ukraine	148	Lithuania, Poland, Moldova, Azerbaijan
Ireland	120	Finland, United Kingdom
Lithuania	113	Ireland
Luxembourg	111	Cyprus, Portugal, RoW
Portugal	103	Luxembourg
Finland	93	Iceland, Sweden
Poland	75	Ukraine
Serbia	50	Croatia
Australia	37	(4 points from Luxembourg)
Slovenia	28	(10 points from Croatia and Serbia)
Cyprus	23	(8 points from Azerbaijan and Australia)
Moldova	23	(8 points from Portugal)
Azerbaijan	9	(4 points from Moldova)
Iceland	6	(4 points from Finland)

 

[Sabrewulf238]

My predictions based on everything we've seen so far...

Semi Final One
01. Croatia
02. Ukraine
03. Lithuania
04. Finland
05. Ireland
06. Luxembourg
07. Portugal
08. Cyprus
09. Poland
10. Serbia
11. Australia
12. Slovenia
13. Moldova
14. Azerbaijan
15. Iceland

Semi Final Two
01. Netherlands
02. Switzerland
03. Norway
04. Greece
05. Armenia
06. Israel
07. Georgia
08. Belgium
09. Estonia
10. Austria
11. Denmark
12. Malta
13. San Marino
14. Albania
15. Latvia
16. Czechia

 

[gigi_copp3]

SCHEME AFTER THE 2ND REHEARSALS.

SF1
LOCKOUTS:
LIKELY QUALIFIERS:
BORDERLINE:
UNLIKELY QUALIFIERS:
DOA:

SF2
LOCKOUTS:
LIKELY QUALIFIERS:
BORDERLINE:
UNLIKELY QUALIFIERS:
DOA:

My bold predictions:
-Albania will qualify over Georgia;
-Cyprus won't qualify.

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

San Marino has grown on me, I'd like to see it qualify but I agree it likely won't.

Will we see all but 1 (or even all) acts from H1 of SF1 qualify? Has this ever happened.

 

[GermanBango]

Prediction for Semi 1

Placement​	Country​	Points​	12 points from ...​
1	Croatia	175	FIN/ICE/SER/SLO/UKR/GER/ROW
2	Ukraine	160	AZE/CYP/LIT/MOL/POL/POR
3	Ireland	126	AUS
4	Lithuania	104	IRE/UKN/SWE
5	Finland	72	x
6	Serbia	69	CRO
7	Poland	60	x
8	Azerbaijan	59	x
9	Portugal	58	LUX
10	Luxembourg	55	x
11	Australia	48	x
12	Cyprus	40	x
13	Moldova	32	x
14	Slovenia	27	x
15	Iceland	17	x

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

I can't believe I'm saying this because I normally dislike Azeri entries, but I hope Azerbaijan qualifies.

 

[GRE]

My predictions after the 2nd rehearsals

Semifinal 1 =>
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
---------------
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.


Semifinal 2=>
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
--------------
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.

 

[Citelis]

Let me try...

SF1
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
------
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

SF2
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
------
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.

 

[Synergise]

I feel a lot less confident in my predictions for semi 2...
I still think Albania will sneak in over a stronger entry because of their incredible diaspora support in this semi. Had they been drawn into semi 1, there's no way they'd be advancing. I think Armenia will do surprisingly well based on how immediately charming it is, though maybe I'm over-rating its general appeal a bit here. I have Estonia as a non-qualifier here, but it could easily qualify over the Netherlands. Despite it being close here, I think Greece is somewhat safe, because I currently have it getting a few high, relative secure points, rather than it picking up many more of the lower, more variable points like the Netherlands is, which could easily be taken by any of my predicted NQ countries.

Country	Points	12 points from:
Netherlands	154	Czechia, Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Norway
Switzerland	153	Malta, San Marino
Armenia	147	Georgia, Israel
Israel	144	France, Spain, RoW
Norway	111	Denmark
Georgia	107	Armenia
Austria	73	(6 points from the Netherlands)
Albania	60	Greece, Switzerland, Italy
Greece	48	Albania
Belgium	44	Netherlands
Estonia	42	Latvia
San Marino	27	(7 points from Spain)
Denmark	17	(6 points from the San Marinese jury)
Malta	16	-
Latvia	12	(7 points from Estonia)
Czechia	5	-