Who will qualify from each SF?

[SpiritofKeiino]

Anyone fancy having a go? I've decided not to listen to the songs in advance this year bar UK and Ireland. I have listened to France and Lux. So I can't really give much of an opinion but I think Lux is a NQ and Ireland is a Q.

 

[gigi_copp3]

I think there's no country, by now, that it's totally out of qualifications.

SF1
Lock qualifiers:
Likelywelcome back present)
Fighting for qualification:
Not enough informations:

SF2
Lock qualifiers:
Likely:
Fighting for qualification:
Unlikely:
Not enough informations:
Will they compete?:

 

[Realest]

Ill do 2 Prediction-Threads with a Poll when the Time has come.

For now (right Order):

Semi1:

//

Semi2:

//

 

[BorisBubbles]

here's my tier list:

QF - guaranteed qualifier, impossible that they NQ
LQ - likely qualifier, almost certainly in, but may flop live (usually internals or weaker qualifiers in strong semis)
BL - borderline. these can swing either way
AR - At Risk. Likely on the outs, but can benefit if they serve, and a country from a higher tier does not
NQ - Always 100% missing the final

and now for each semi so far. Countries with zero info are in BL by default.

SEMI 1:
QF: , ,
LQ: , , ,
BL: , , , ,
AR: ,
NQ:

Azer are BL by default because we have no info, but I'm faaaairly sure the NQ based on the little info we know. Iceland and Serbia are LQ based on the projected winners (Bashar and Breskvica respectively) and can rise or drop if someone else wins. None of the options in Portugal put them higher than BL.

SEMI 2

QF: , ,
LQ: ,
BL: , , , , ; ,
AR: , ,
NQ: n/a
DQ:

Israel will be DQ'd so i don't count them. We know Austria's song, they're defo in. Semi 2 is EXTREMELY open though, since there's a few question marks (armenia, georgia, greece) and several songs are being adjusted (albania, czechia, malta)

 

[Realest]

Ill do 2 Prediction-Threads with a Poll when the Time has come.

For now (right Order):

Semi1:

//

Semi2:

//

Small Update:

Semi1:
//

Semi2:

//

 

[gigi_copp3]

Iceland got out of the likely: this is great news for all the borderline countries.

SF1
Lockouts:

Likely:

Borderline/fighting:

Unlikely:

Not enough informations:


SF2
Lockouts:

Likely:

Borderline/fighting:

Unlikely:

Not enough informations:

Probably DQd:

 

[0scar]

Assuming Grito wins in Portugal, (and Azerbaijan being DOA) my guess for semi-final 1 would be at this moment, from most-to-least-likely-to
Q / Likely Q:
NQ / Likely NQ:

I'll come back to semi-final 2 when Greece, Armenia and Georgia are released, and we'll now if Israel is gonna participate or not.

 

[rasmuslights]

Assuming Grito wins in Portugal, (and Azerbaijan being DOA) my guess for semi-final 1 would be at this moment, from most-to-least-likely-to
Q / Likely Q:
NQ / Likely NQ:

I'll come back to semi-final 2 when Greece, Armenia and Georgia are released, and we'll now if Israel is gonna participate or not.

Completely the same prediction but I would switch Finland and Serbia. Also think Slovenia and Portugal are more likely to qualify than Lux. and Australia.

For semi 2:

Q:
Likely Q:
Borderline:
Likely NQ:
NQ:

And for Albania and Georgia too hard to say but definitely in the q section.

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

Ok after listening to SF1 songs let's give this a go.
This SF is not as strong as I expected it to be after the draw was announced.

SF1
Q :
Borderline Q/NQ
NQ:
Not enough info:

If pushed I would say that Poland and Moldova will be the last 2 NQs. I don't see the first half of the show having only one NQ namely Cyprus. I've heard talk about Poland benefiting from the diaspora but I believe if the diaspora don't like the song they won't support it.

Azerbaijan could be in trouble too but let's see the song.

 

[randajad]

SF1
Q
Borderline Q/NQ

Let's go slavic girlies

 

[henhu]

SF 1
Q:
NQ:

SF 2
Q:
NQ:

 

[Kev4000]

NQs so far

1 Luxembourgh > Australia > Iceland

2 Czechia > Latvia > San Marino

 

[GRE]

If Iceland withdraw, then ebu should make equal semifinals by taking 1 country from semifinal 2, and putting this country to semifinal 1.

 

[goncalovieira]

SF1
Q :
Borderline Q/NQ :
NQ

For me, semifinal 1 is pretty obvious for predictions. However, about the real borderlines, I would appoint Slovenia and Luxembourg.

 

[martin]

Semi 1: If Iceland take part with Hera or Withdraw

Nearly 100% sure to Q = Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania,
Very likely to Q = Serbia, Poland and Portugal
Should Q, but could get some trouble = Slovenia and Cyprus
Borderline + = Moldova and Finland
Borderline - = Australia, Luxembourg and Ireland
Less chance but not out = Iceland and Azerbaijan

Comment = Top 3 is going to be a bomb if one of them not Q
Serbia should Q pretty easy. Also get ok score in Balkan and some other country
Poland will get free points from Ireland, UK, Lithuania and also some nordic country. Should be enough
Portugal = Like Serbia this will stand enough out. Only bad news they don,t have many safe friends
Slovenia = Well normally not 3 country from Balkan Q, but this should still get enough points to Q.
Cyprus = Normally this type of songs Q. But not very safe
Moldova = They always step up in Eurovision and Barbu going to put a lot of money into this performance. I think that could save it
Finland = Well good help with 2 nordic country, UK, Ireland and Germany. Could get some small points around Europa

NQ
Australia = With jury this would Q, but only with televoting and not a very strong song. Australia could get they 2 NQ
Luxembourg = Ok songs and it feels a little bit French. But popsongs in French not doing well in Televoting and do they have friends with French, Belgium and Netherlands voting in SF 2?
Ireland = I could easy see this Q, but Ireland have a horrible voting result and we have Croatia and Finland also in this SF
Iceland = Hera is Awesome, but the songs goes nowhere and i,m afraid it will get lost
Azerbaijan = We don,t know anything about this. But he is not a star in his country and Azerbaijan is not in good form. Televoting is not longer helping Azerbaijan last years.

 

[0scar]

I'll come back to semi-final 2 when Greece, Armenia and Georgia are released, and we'll now if Israel is gonna participate or not.

Well now we've got Israel and Georgia, and I assume Armenia is coming with a good song, my prediction is something like this, again from most-to-least-likely-to

Q: / Likely Q:
NQ: / Likely NQ:

I think it'll be either Czechia or Denmark as 10th qualifier, but I would prefer them both to qualify and Estonia to NQ.
Albania and Georgia won't qualify, or either one will sneak through - not both.
I can see Greece or Norway as a surprise NQ, but probably both will qualify.
Belgium needs a GOOD staging, if it gets a Sennek/Elliot staging they could be in danger as well.

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

Well now we've got Israel and Georgia, and I assume Armenia is coming with a good song, my prediction is something like this, again from most-to-least-likely-to

Q: / Likely Q:
NQ: / Likely NQ:

I think it'll be either Czechia or Denmark as 10th qualifier, but I would prefer them both to qualify and Estonia to NQ.
Albania and Georgia won't qualify, or either one will sneak through - not both.
I can see Greece or Norway as a surprise NQ, but probably both will qualify.
Belgium needs a GOOD staging, if it gets a Sennek/Elliot staging they could be in danger as well.

This pretty much aligns with what I think will happen too.
Of the 10 you have as qualifiers, I agree that Denmark seems the most at risk.
I'm fairly sure that Malta and San Marino are dead on arrival, and probably Latvia too.

I am finding it more difficult to land on SF1 qualifiers.

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

I can only see Australia sneaking through in SF1 if they deliver a BIG performance near the end of the show that gets the arena moving, maybe turning up the didgeridoo in the mix.
Otherwise I think it's dead, if the stage show is bland or a bit 'pretentious' it will get lost.

I still think Ireland is safe Q in SF1 despite its poor history and the stacked 1st half of that SF1.

 

[Realest]

Small Update:

Semi1:
//

Semi2:

//

Next Update:

Semi1:

//

Semi2:

//

 

[gigi_copp3]

SF2 is officially complete.
My guess:

SURE QUALIFIERS :
LIKELY QUALIFIERS :
BORDERLINE :
UNLIKELY :