rajo
Active member
- Joined
- March 10, 2011
- Posts
- 2,147
Hi there! 
How dare I say that the victories of the next 10 years are already given away?
Well, look at this map:
And now look it these records, starting with the era of overall televoting in 1999:
Winners:
1999 - Sweden
2000 -Denmark
2001 -Estonia
2002 -Latvia
2003 -Turkey
2004 -Ukraine
2005 -Greece
2006 -Finland
2007 -Serbia
2008 -Russia
2009 -Norway
2010 - Germany
2011 - Azerbaijan
2012 - Hot Favourites: Sweden Russia Serbia Spain
Do you miss something? I definitely do: it's any country that would've been highlighted in a lightblue colour!
What do these countries in the list have in common? Well, most obviously they won, but most important for me, they all belong to some sort of voting points generating families. And also hard to deny, most of them (not all for sure) were rather generic and the victory felt not fairly justified (outstanding example, Russia 2008).
So it's easy to predict these colour patterns live on for the next 10 years at least. Why is that?
The red family: 2 become 16
I appreciate the fall of communism and the rise of democracy in the former USSR and I fancy the new born countries. I also appreciate the fall of communism throughout Eastern Europe as a whole, and also for Yugoslavia. But I don't see a point in splitting up into small countries, just because there is no religious consent? Well, let's not get too political here.
Within the red blocks the countries fancy each other and high points are always shared, come what may.
Of course, some profit more, some less, because of extra connections due to diaspora voters who miss there home countries most, when it's Eurovision time. Some countries of these blocks just don't have diaspora at all, but also do their part to keep the precious points within the family.
Most advantages always for Bosnia & Hercegovina (diaspora, and ethnic constituency: Croatians, Serbians and Muslims), Serbia (lots of diaspora throughout Europe), Russia (big mother, favoured by ethnic constituencies of their satellites), Ukraine (second flavour within the ex USSR) and Azerbaijan (extra ties with the Turkish people).
I wouldn't be surprised, if 5 winners within 10 years came from these two families.
The blue family: our lovely neighbours!
The Scandinavians favourite sports is Eurovision, and the second most favourite sports is loving their neighbours - a lot! They have a lot of love to give! So it's no wonder, that the northernly countries who brought us generic schlager sounds, managed to bring the ESC trophy quite often to old Europe. Each of them once since 1999, except for Iceland, who also played well in recent history.
We can take it for granted to welcome Eurovision 3-4 times in Sweden and its lovely neighbours within the next couple of years.
Better off alone
Greece and Turkey are not family, of course. What they have in common is an island called Cyprus. But what makes them so strong, is rather not their generic ethnic music, but their huge diaspora throughout Western Europe. And if Turkey fails, then Azeri music tastes also good.
I think Greece should put more effort into Eurovision, because their entries get weaker every year, but they still qualify so easily. They got sniffy and should try harder!
Still, there is always a chance for a Greek and Turkish win!
No party without us
The old hags of Western Europe with the big money in the purse award themselves for being so generous to the EBU by passing directly into the final each year. This doesn't grant success automatically, but it lifts the chances, since there is not qualifying round. Well, Germany's victory 2010 was very well deserved, but still a big surprise, since it is - Germany. It was a refresher for Eurovision to see Germany win, although I wouldn't bet on a Big 5 win for the next ten years. Though it seems like Italy could be the jury's flavour to keep them motivated to stay in.
A problem on the horizon: What if Turkey, Russia and maybe Ukraine decided one day to claim to be "big" too?
It would spare out winning and qualifying chances for the rest, if this wish was granted.
And what about us???
Has someone counted how often and regularly Portugal, Andorra, Monaco, Belgium, the Netherlands, San Marino, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, Albania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Malta and Israel failed to qualify or even got last?
I can guarantee you, one of them will be the last of the results list every year and find its way into the Guiness Book of Records for the most failed participations in a row, longest period without any victory at all or the most last places ever. The next one who quits the Eurovision will also be one of them.
Why is that? Are these countries worse than the others?
What more do they have common? Exactly, none of them is part of any sort of family. Their being together and splitting up has been so long ago, nobody can't remember.
I spared out Romania, because it seems like they have a stronghold in South Western Europe. I don't know if it's the diaspora, the similar language or just the "awesome" music.
And what about you?
Have your say!
How dare I say that the victories of the next 10 years are already given away?
Well, look at this map:
And now look it these records, starting with the era of overall televoting in 1999:
Winners:
1999 - Sweden
2000 -Denmark
2001 -Estonia
2002 -Latvia
2003 -Turkey
2004 -Ukraine
2005 -Greece
2006 -Finland
2007 -Serbia
2008 -Russia
2009 -Norway
2010 - Germany
2011 - Azerbaijan
2012 - Hot Favourites: Sweden Russia Serbia Spain
Do you miss something? I definitely do: it's any country that would've been highlighted in a lightblue colour!
What do these countries in the list have in common? Well, most obviously they won, but most important for me, they all belong to some sort of voting points generating families. And also hard to deny, most of them (not all for sure) were rather generic and the victory felt not fairly justified (outstanding example, Russia 2008).
So it's easy to predict these colour patterns live on for the next 10 years at least. Why is that?
The red family: 2 become 16
I appreciate the fall of communism and the rise of democracy in the former USSR and I fancy the new born countries. I also appreciate the fall of communism throughout Eastern Europe as a whole, and also for Yugoslavia. But I don't see a point in splitting up into small countries, just because there is no religious consent? Well, let's not get too political here.
Within the red blocks the countries fancy each other and high points are always shared, come what may.
Of course, some profit more, some less, because of extra connections due to diaspora voters who miss there home countries most, when it's Eurovision time. Some countries of these blocks just don't have diaspora at all, but also do their part to keep the precious points within the family.
Most advantages always for Bosnia & Hercegovina (diaspora, and ethnic constituency: Croatians, Serbians and Muslims), Serbia (lots of diaspora throughout Europe), Russia (big mother, favoured by ethnic constituencies of their satellites), Ukraine (second flavour within the ex USSR) and Azerbaijan (extra ties with the Turkish people).
I wouldn't be surprised, if 5 winners within 10 years came from these two families.
The blue family: our lovely neighbours!
The Scandinavians favourite sports is Eurovision, and the second most favourite sports is loving their neighbours - a lot! They have a lot of love to give! So it's no wonder, that the northernly countries who brought us generic schlager sounds, managed to bring the ESC trophy quite often to old Europe. Each of them once since 1999, except for Iceland, who also played well in recent history.
We can take it for granted to welcome Eurovision 3-4 times in Sweden and its lovely neighbours within the next couple of years.
Better off alone
Greece and Turkey are not family, of course. What they have in common is an island called Cyprus. But what makes them so strong, is rather not their generic ethnic music, but their huge diaspora throughout Western Europe. And if Turkey fails, then Azeri music tastes also good.
I think Greece should put more effort into Eurovision, because their entries get weaker every year, but they still qualify so easily. They got sniffy and should try harder!
Still, there is always a chance for a Greek and Turkish win!
No party without us
The old hags of Western Europe with the big money in the purse award themselves for being so generous to the EBU by passing directly into the final each year. This doesn't grant success automatically, but it lifts the chances, since there is not qualifying round. Well, Germany's victory 2010 was very well deserved, but still a big surprise, since it is - Germany. It was a refresher for Eurovision to see Germany win, although I wouldn't bet on a Big 5 win for the next ten years. Though it seems like Italy could be the jury's flavour to keep them motivated to stay in.
A problem on the horizon: What if Turkey, Russia and maybe Ukraine decided one day to claim to be "big" too?
It would spare out winning and qualifying chances for the rest, if this wish was granted.
And what about us???
Has someone counted how often and regularly Portugal, Andorra, Monaco, Belgium, the Netherlands, San Marino, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, Albania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Malta and Israel failed to qualify or even got last?
I can guarantee you, one of them will be the last of the results list every year and find its way into the Guiness Book of Records for the most failed participations in a row, longest period without any victory at all or the most last places ever. The next one who quits the Eurovision will also be one of them.
Why is that? Are these countries worse than the others?
What more do they have common? Exactly, none of them is part of any sort of family. Their being together and splitting up has been so long ago, nobody can't remember.
I spared out Romania, because it seems like they have a stronghold in South Western Europe. I don't know if it's the diaspora, the similar language or just the "awesome" music.
And what about you?
Have your say!
