Do you think Ukraine is going to win Eurovision because of the war?

[EfendiFanSpain]

In a lot of bet houses the number one is ukraine, do yo think that they are going to recube a lot of points of the country juries because they want to look more great? Do you think this is fear?

 

[HayashiM]

I am biased, as Ukraine is my n°1. But it had been very high (top 5 level of high) in the odds pre-war, even with Kalush. Should it collect any "pity points", these would only push it from a big favourite into an even bigger one. If Ukraine wins, it is still a very deserved victory for me - I am really tired of people shouting "if it wins, it is only because of the war as the song has no merit".
Besides, I suggest we don't underestimate the opposite effect. I am pretty sure that by May, there's gonna be plenty of people thinking "oh no, not Ukraine again, they are everywhere, give us a break... shouldn't they rather be at home rebuilding their country?" (not thoughts I would agree with) and judge the song with this in mind.

The net effect might slightly improve Ukraine's chances, but it's not that big a thing. We would surely have a different n°1 had they sent a different song with less universal appeal (say, Barleben's).

 

[EfendiFanSpain]

I am biased, as Ukraine is my n°1. But it had been very high (top 5 level of high) in the odds pre-war, even with Kalush. Should it collect any "pity points", these would only push it from a big favourite into an even bigger one. If Ukraine wins, it is still a very deserved victory for me - I am really tired of people shouting "if it wins, it is only because of the war as the song has no merit".
Besides, I suggest we don't underestimate the opposite effect. I am pretty sure that by May, there's gonna be plenty of people thinking "oh no, not Ukraine again, they are everywhere, give us a break... shouldn't they rather be at home rebuilding their country?" (not thoughts I would agree with) and judge the song with this in mind.

The net effect might slightly improve Ukraine's chances, but it's not that big a thing. We would surely have a different n°1 had they sent a different song with less universal appeal (say, Barleben's).

I want to think that the judges of other countries are going to give the points as other years, if Ukraine doesn't do it well (i hope they do it very well) tthwy don't have a lot of points. I suport ukraine but Eurovision is not a way to prove it, so, i hope that not all the word televote Ukraine because of the war and i hope that esc 2022 will be a big party.

 

[Bobjan FR]

There is two questions in one.... The first question "Do you think ukraine is gonna win", i would say "that's probable". But i don't want, Stefania is not very high in my top and i am too frustrated the song of Alina pash won't compete.

The second question "if they win, it's because of the war".... I would say "that's probable" as well. Ok, The song is quite popular, and Ukraine always does well to elevate the performance, but If they win the televote with a excessively high score ( > 400 points ) , something never reached before, i would say it's obvious the situation helped them to win.

But we can wait for the live performances. Last year, a lot of people started to like SHUM from the moment they saw the live performance. Maybe Kalush orchestra will provide an amazing live, but maybe not, Maybe they will have to perform in live-on-tape.... and it depends of what the others contestants will do as well. so this question will be easier to answer when the rehearsals will begin. (Even if we know that people are never all agreeing on anything...!)

 

[Decayingbooks]

The question is posted on the wrong board, it should have been posted in "Måneskin's Mansion"

 

[ArmpitOfEurope]

I an a '' normal '' year, Stefania would bring a great result (3-6) thanks to a very strong televote, because its an amazingly televote friendly entry.
This year, with the possibility of some jurors being affected from whats happening and wanting to express solidarity to Ukraine too, a win is very possible, yes. Because jurors would normally have stopped it from winning, but that is not that certain this year.
Considering the lack of another clear big favourite as well.. Yeah they can totally do it, with a huge televote score and a decent jury score.
I hope it doesnt happen tho, for me its not a winning song.

 

[A-lister]

If Ukraine wins, it will be on the entry's own merits and not because of sympathy votes alone. It's just so much sympathy can do, it might push a song somewhat but certainly not to victory if it isn't a song universally liked. The song was top. 5 in the odds even prior to the invasion, so this whole narrative is starting to become tiring. It's one of the few standout songs with personality in a sea of mostly very meh ballads.

Plus, isn't this in the wrong thread?

 

[Mrm]

French OGAE gave 1 point to Ukraine, so it won't be the fave of hardcore ESC fans probably, but everything is possible..

 

[dany rose]

Ukraine was my winner from the very first moment and as other songs were released none convinced me as much as " Stefania"

 

[A-lister]

French OGAE gave 1 point to Ukraine, so it won't be the fave of hardcore ESC fans probably, but everything is possible..

I wouldn't use OGAE as a measurement really They aren't representative of the general public, and they are almost wrong every year (if we'd use their voting as "prediction"). Their taste is usually very cliché Eurovision bubble and more representative of the "old guard" of Eurovision fans, I mean their winner last year was Malta while Italy wasn't even in their top. 5, I rest my case.

With that said, I also don't think Ukraine will actually win, but this whole tiring narrative that if they would, it would be due to sympathy votes, clearly doesn't take into consideration that it was high in the odds and polls even prior to the contest and that it is really standing out compared to the rest and has like televote top. 3 (at least) written all over itself (even without the war).

 

[94ayd]

Nah, especially if vocals aren't improved.

 

[I bims]

With that said, I also don't think Ukraine will actually win, but this whole tiring narrative that if they would, it would be due to sympathy votes, clearly doesn't take into consideration that it was high in the odds and polls even prior to the contest and that it is really standing out compared to the rest and has like televote top. 3 (at least) written all over itself (even without the war).

I don't know why you use early polls and odds as a basis for an argument. Generally these early polls/odds are kinda worthless and we didn't even have all songs at the time. Ukraine also had the whole Alina Pash situation going on. Kalush was then confirmed just two days before to the invasion. So the odds had no time to properly adjust.

 

[Mrm]

@A-lister

I see what you mean, it really stands out because, beside Ukraine and France we do not have more ethno this year (AZE yes one small part).. ethno will be canceled at ESC very soon as I can notice and that makes me really sad.

 

[A-lister]

I don't know why you use early polls and odds as a basis for an argument. Generally these early polls/odds are kinda worthless and we didn't even have all songs at the time. Ukraine also had the whole Alina Pash situation going on. Kalush was then confirmed just two days before to the invasion. So the odds had no time to properly adjust.

Well, it's still an argument which at least is based on some sort of data, more so than this tiring hypothesis that "Ukraine will only win due to the war", which is not based on anything really just some ideas some people have. I can't find any trace that this song was somehow generally disliked or low in polls/odds, but that's just one part of my argument though, the other is simply looking at the rest of the competition and what we kind of can expect from at least televoters based on voting patterns.

Sure, I completely get that this is not everyone's cup of tea, but I also don't buy the "sympathy" narrative because it makes it look as we talk about an entry that was completely out of the picture (let's take Israel as an example), and would only succeed based on sympathy, it takes more than that to win Eurovision imho. It might give it an extra push, but that alone won't make it.

Still though, I don't think it will actually win, and I still think it will struggle with juries (because they are as they are), just saying that if it will win, let's not discredit its merits.

 

[A-lister]

@A-lister

I see what you mean, it really stands out because, beside Ukraine and France we do not have more ethno this year (AZE yes one small part).. ethno will be canceled at ESC very soon as I can notice and that makes me really sad.

It's sad indeed, we can all thank juries for that!

 

[timmy121]

If Ukraine wins, it will be on the entry's own merits and not because of sympathy votes alone. It's just so much sympathy can do, it might push a song somewhat but certainly not to victory if it isn't a song universally liked. The song was top. 5 in the odds even prior to the invasion, so this whole narrative is starting to become tiring. It's one of the few standout songs with personality in a sea of mostly very meh ballads.

Plus, isn't this in the wrong thread?

18/1 into evens hmmm.. We all know why the odds have shortened.

 

[Ana Raquel]

Tbh, if it was Alina, yes - and I dare say she would come close to or even surpass Salvador's result.

With Kalush, I don't think so? A top 5, maybe even 3 seems very likely but I don't see the juries supporting it enough for a victory (I did say the same about Maneskin though )

 

[Citelis]

Well, Maneskin were 4th in juries and they won so a 4th or even 5th place in juries and too much t/v and everything is possible. Unlikely to happen imo but possible.

 

[hijirio]

Let's not kid ourselves, if it wins it will be because of the war.
And when Kalush were chosen for Eurovision, it was 2 days prior to the war and the situation between Russia and Ukraine was already tense, the war was a matter of days and everyone already had sympathy for Ukraine. Also, Kalush had already benefited from Alina's momentum, many people already had their money in Ukraine. Kalush were slowly sliding after Alina's withdrawal but they suddenly shot up with the war breaking out.
Yes, the entry has its own merits, maybe it would come top 10 or top 5, but if they were supposed to win with the entry's own merits, the entry would have already jumped to 1st place after their announcement as winners, which didn't happen until the war.

 

[Decayingbooks]

I think the invasion will help Ukraine's chances of victory, the public and judges may support it as a way to show solidarity, but it won't be underserved, Stephania is a top5 song and in their nf there were at least more 3 songs that were also top5(Alina, Wellboy and Roxolana).
What I'm more curious is who will be second place, with the situation in Ukraine I don't think that they will be able to host in 2023 and although EBU may give the duty of hosting to one of the big5, I do hope that it is the second place that wins that responsibility.