Flops
Azerbaijan - too dull and way too serious. Don't think the audience will fall in love with this. Perhaps around 10th place?
Armenia - I don't think it will fail massively, but I don't think the first 1,5 minutes of the song will be too appealing. Top 5.
I also think that Sweden (sadly), Hungary or UK (one of them) will flop completely and end up 20th-26th.
Dark horses
Iceland - maybe I'm biased
but outside the Eurovision world I think the audience will really like this. It's fun, catchy and memorable. Top 15.
The Netherlands - a calm, radio friendly song. Top 15.
Montenegro - a Balkan ballad is always appealing. Top 15.