This year is very open which could lead to a frustrating result like 2011, because diaspora votes would have more weight in an open year. So, the The Tower by Poland will get a much better result than the The Tower if it were presented by Czechia.
I would say the winner gets an overall score below 450, maybe even below 400. Azerbaijan would have gotten 405 points under the new system with a massive field of 43 countries participating.
Diaspora-wise, Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania should have all shots at winning or a top result.
There are also way too many uptempo songs this year like in 2011. So I would rule out all the up tempo songs from the get-go.
On paper, and musically, I would anticipate a battle between France and the UK. Both are very jury friendly and could garner enough televotes to sneak in the win. For France it would mean redemption after their colossal flop in 2011 when they started as favourites.
This will be a year of fan favourite and betting flops like never before. Could be exciting, unless a country really wins bluntly thanks to their diaspora. Then everyone would be pissed.
My favourites for last place in the final are Finland, Norway, Australia, Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, Czechia, Germany, Austria, Armenia, Israel, Spain and Belgium, but still with decent scores. Hm, I think I go with Spain here. There is just no jury potential and maybe 3 points from Portugal.
