Public vs. Jury top. 10's (semi qualifiers) (speculation thread)

[A-lister]

So,

Just for the fun of speculation, what do you predict will be the public top. 10 versus the juries' top. 10 in the semis?

So I guess I'll start, here's my predictions:

SF1
Public - Jury

1. Sweden - 1. Finland
2. Belgium - 2. Belgium
3. Armenia - 3. Australia
4. Moldova - 4. Portugal
5. Finland - 5. Iceland
6. Poland - 6. Czechia
7. Greece - 7. Azerbaijan
8. Azerbaijan - 8. Sweden
9. Australia - 9. Cyprus
10. Cyprus - 10. Georgia

SF2
1. Romania - 1. Netherlands
2. Bulgaria - 2. Bulgaria
3. Hungary (Russia if they take part) - 3. Ireland
4. Estonia - 4. Austria
5. Belarus - 5. Macedonia
6. Serbia - 6. Denmark (Russia if they take part)
7. Macedonia - 7. Switzerland
8. Israel - 8. Croatia
9. Denmark - 9. Estonia
10. Croatia - 10. Malta

 

[carl1]

SF1 Public SF1 Jury
1.Sweden 1.Portugal
2.Belgium 2.Australia
3.Armenia 3.Finland
4.Moldova 4.Belgium
5.Australia 5.Sweden
6.Poland 6.Azerbaijan
7.Cyprus 7.Latvia
8.Azerbaijan 8.Czech Republic
9.Iceland 9.Poland
10.Finland 10.Cyprus

SF2 public SF2 jury
1.Bulgaria 1.Bulgaria
2.Estonia 2.Netherlands
3.Romania 3.Hungary
4.Israel 4.Israel
5.Serbia 5.Denmark
6.Denmark 6.Serbia
7.Macedonia 7.Norway
8.Hungary 8.Ireland
9.Austria 9.Malta
10.Belarus 10.Belarus

 

[henhu]

SF1 public SF1 jury
1. 1.
2. 2.
3. 3.
4. 4.
5. 5.
6. 6.
7. 7.
8. 8.
9. 9.
10. 10.

SF2 public SF2 jury (assuming that Russia doesn't participate)
1. 1. <--- only because I have no clue
2. 2.
3. 3.
4. 4.
5. 5.
6. 6.
7. 7.
8. 8.
9. 9.
10. 10.

 

[midnightsun]

SF 1 Public | Juries

01. Greece | Belgium
02. Azerbaijan | Poland
03. Belgium | Finland
04. Sweden | Azerbaijan
05. Finland | Sweden
06. Poland | Australia
07. Australia | Armenia
08. Armenia | Greece
09. Latvia | Moldova
10. Georgia | Georgia

SF 2 Public | Juries

01. Estonia | Romania
02. Romania | Estonia
03. Russia | Russia
04. Hungary | Hungary
05. Macedonia | Austria
06. Bulgaria | Bulgaria
07. Israel | Denmark
08. Denmark | Macedonia
09. Austria | Switzerland
10. Switzerland | Croatia

One of the favs here will fail hard as the big favourite Italy is not in the semis this year. So all the voters for Italy will probably vote for a nice, pleasant song like Austria or Finland in the semi which didn't do well in the finals.

 

[ParadiseES]

I think you're exaggerating a bit the difference between televoters and juries. Except for Romania or maybe Croatia and Hungary I don't see such big difference in both votings.

SF 1 Televoting / Juries
1. Belgium - 1. Portugal
2. Sweden - 2. Azerbaijan
3. Armenia - 3. Sweden
4. Portugal - 4. Belgium
5. Azerbaijan - 5. Armenia
6. Greece - 6. Finland
7. Poland - 7. Australia
8. Moldova - 8. Czech Republic
9. Latvia - 9. Greece
10. Cyprus - 10. Iceland
(T: 11-Australia, 12-Georgia, 13-Iceland, 14-Albania, 15-Finland, 16-Montenegro, 17-Slovenia, 18-Czech Republic)
(J: 11-Georgia, 12-Cyprus, 13-Slovenia, 14-Latvia, 15-Moldova, 16-Poland, 17-Albania, 18-Montenegro)

SF 2 Televoting/Juries
1. Romania - 1. Bulgaria
2. Belarus - 2. FYR Macedonia
3. FYR Macedonia - 3. Serbia
4. Hungary - 4. Denmark
5. Bulgaria - 5. Netherlands
(Russia)
6. Serbia - 6. Ireland
7. Estonia - 7. Israel
8. Croatia - 8. Switzerland
9. Israel - 9. Belarus
10. Denmark - 10. Estonia
(T: 11-Switzerland, 12-Norway, 13-Netherlands, 14-Ireland, 15-San Marino, 16-Lithuania, 17-Austria, 18-Malta)
(J: 11- Norway, 12- Hungary, -Russia-, 13-Romania, 14-Austria, 15-Croatia, 16-San Marino, 17-Malta, 18-Lithuania)

 

[WhoKnows]

Semi 1
JURY
Australia
Finland
Belgium
Azerbaijan
Poland
Sweden
Czech Republic
Armenia
Iceland
Cyprus
-
Portugal
Georgia
Latvia
Albania
Greece
Moldova
Slovenia
Montenegro

TELEVOTE
Sweden
Australia
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Greece
Belgium
Moldova
Finland
Poland
Georgia
-
Iceland
Latvia
Cyprus
Slovenia
Montenegro
Albania
Portugal
Czech Republic

Overall
1-Australia 2-Azerbaijan 3-Sweden 4-Belgium 5-Finland 6-Armenia 7-Poland 8-Greece 9-Moldova 10-Cyprus 11-Iceland 12-Georgia 13-Latvia 14-Czech Republic 15-Portugal 16-Albania 17-Slovenia 18-Montenegro

Semi 2
JURY
Bulgaria
Ireland
Serbia
Belarus
Macedonia
Israel
Malta
Denmark
Netherlands
Estonia
-
Norway
Austria
Hungary
Romania
Switzerland
Croatia
San Marino
Russia
Lithuania

TELEVOTE
Bulgaria
Romania
Serbia
Belarus
Israel
Ireland
Estonia
Hungary
Russia
Macedonia
-
Norway
Denmark
Austria
Malta
Netherlands
Lithuania
Croatia
Switzerland
San Marino

Overall
1-Bulgaria 2-Serbia 3- Ireland 4-Belarus 5-Israel 6-Macedonia 7-Romania 8-Estonia 9-Hungary 10-Norway 11-Denmark 12-Malta 13-Netherlands 14-Austria 15-Russia 16-Switzerland 17-Croatia 18-Lithuania 19-San Marino 36

 

[SwedishFailurez]

My predictions are only based on the songs themselves and voting patterns through history. The forthcoming performances may prove my predictions wrong.

SF 1

Overall Rank	Country	Televote	Jury
1		1	4-5
2		2-3	2
3		4-5	1
4		2-3	3
5		4-5	6-7
6		8-11	4-5
7		9-11	4-5
8		6-7	12
9		6-8	11-14
10		7-8	14

SF 2

Overall Rank	Country	Televote	Jury
1		1-3	1
2		1-3	4
3		5	5
4		2	15-19
5		7	3
6		16-19	2
7		6	10
8		4	11-12
9		8	8-11
10		10	7-10

 

[SirPeterGriffin]

My predictions are only based on the songs themselves and voting patterns through history. The forthcoming performances may prove my predictions wrong.

SF 1

Overall Rank	Country	Televote	Jury
1		1	4-5
2		2-3	2
3		4-5	1
4		2-3	3
5		4-5	6-7
6		8-11	4-5
7		9-11	4-5
8		6-7	12
9		6-8	11-14
10		7-8	14

SF 2

Overall Rank	Country	Televote	Jury
1		1-3	1
2		1-3	4
3		5	5
4		2	15-19
5		7	3
6		16-19	2
7		6	10
8		4	11-12
9		8	8-11
10		10	7-10

I would just change our position between televoting and juries. I have no doubts that the juries will fall in love with Amar pelos Dois. And after the draw it seems quite realistic looking at that table.

Wouldn't be nice to have out beloved contest in Lisboa? Or even Porto? So come on in and join Salvador's train!

 

[JonnyWest]

I would just change our position between televoting and juries. I have no doubts that the juries will fall in love with Amar pelos Dois. And after the draw it seems quite realistic looking at that table.

Wouldn't be nice to have out beloved contest in Lisboa? Or even Porto? So come on in and join Salvador's train!

Yea I agree with you, I think he's going to be 1st place with the juries and around 5th place with televote

 

[SwedishFailurez]

Yea I agree with you, I think he's going to be 1st place with the juries and around 5th place with televote

I would just change our position between televoting and juries. I have no doubts that the juries will fall in love with Amar pelos Dois. And after the draw it seems quite realistic looking at that table.

Wouldn't be nice to have out beloved contest in Lisboa? Or even Porto? So come on in and join Salvador's train!

I think Salvador may fall victim for being too ''old-fashioned'' like how the juries punished Austria and Poland last year. But as how good and charismatic this song is, this still may going really well with the juries. But this may doing much better with the televotes for the same reason. Most thought Grande Amore was going to be the obvious jury favorite, but ending up winning the televote instead that year. The same can happen with Salvador.

 

[JonnyWest]

I think Salvador may fall victim for being too ''old-fashioned'' like how the juries punished Austria and Poland last year. But as how good and charismatic this song is, this still may going really well with the juries. But this may doing much better with the televotes for the same reason. Most thought Grande Amore was going to be the obvious jury favorite, but ending up winning the televote instead that year. The same can happen with Salvador.

The tricky thing is that we almost have no one from the past years to compare with Salvador, many things are unpredictable regarding this year

 

[SwedishFailurez]

The tricky thing is that we almost have no one from the past years to compare with Salvador, many things are unpredictable regarding this year

I agree, Amar pelos Dois are purley retro unlike Austria and Poland which feeled more like modernized 80's song. (Belgium being so high with the juries last year despite being even more outdated is a mystery for me...)

I'm still sure that Salvador may get a huge momentum by the televotes. Thats a song few viewers had heard for a very long time on their own, with the right performence and final draw Portugal may compete at the top of the televotes.

 

[Kaz]

SEMI 1

Jury / Televote / Overall
01.
02.
03.
04.
05.
06.
07.
08.
09.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.

SEMI 2

Jury / Televote / Overall
01.
02.
03.
04.
05.
06.
07.
08.
09.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.

 

[Schlagerman1]

I don't know where to post this, and making an own thread seems a little pointless, but I guess the best place might be here.

Every year, since 2008 I believe, I make something called "Guess the vote", where I guess how the countries will vote in each semifinal. This is made for fun and often I am totally wrong in the end. It has also been harder for each year, when trying to judge how the juries will vote and then how the viewers will react to the songs. But despite that, I still do it, cause you never know, this year it might be a better prediction.

So here below I have done a juryvote result, a televote result and a total score result for both semifinals. Here is what I think:

Semifinal 1 - Jury vote:

Semifinal 1 - Televote:

Semifinal 1 - Total score:

Semifinal 2 - Jury vote:

Semifinal 2 - Televote:

(Not sure how it is with San Marinos televote this year, is it the same as last year, or does they not count their televote at all?)

Semifinal 2 - Total score:

Disclaimer: It might be so that each vote may not be perfect, but I suggest that you take each vote as it is and look more closely on the total scores.

 

[popavapeur]

it's always tricky to rank Juries as the pattern is never the same over the years due to the different juries we have each contest. While Televoting can be predictable I think we often put juries in the skin of old guys only listening to Celine Dion while they showed us some times they're more fond of "actual" modern pop music or "fun" music and tend to underscore serious entries that seem outdated. Poland, Belgium and Malta are good examples of songs that "should" have been liked-disliked-disliked by the juries and that was the opposite.

SF1
JURY _ TELEVOTE










Juries and Public will probably agree on SF1, public will rank Australia 11th , Moldova will be 11th at the juries, they're gonna disagree on Finland, Iceland and Latvia and Montenegro, two of them will get the chop. I think Finland and Montenegro will go to the final.

SF2
JURY _ TELEVOTE










I guess they're gonna disagree a lot on this SF. Norway is 11th in the juries, Israel 12th. Hungary will bomb with the televoting and Romania won't bomb that much in the jury, actually I think they could put this entry between 9-15. The biggest fail will be Estonia (even if a top ten is not really a fail) and The Netherlands while our "shock qualifier" is gonna be Israel, specially when we're gonna have the actual votes and see the country actually high in the voting.

I can't wait to see how wrong I was

 

[NNR]

I don't know where to post this, and making an own thread seems a little pointless, but I guess the best place might be here.

Every year, since 2008 I believe, I make something called "Guess the vote", where I guess how the countries will vote in each semifinal. This is made for fun and often I am totally wrong in the end. It has also been harder for each year, when trying to judge how the juries will vote and then how the viewers will react to the songs. But despite that, I still do it, cause you never know, this year it might be a better prediction.

So here below I have done a juryvote result, a televote result and a total score result for both semifinals. Here is what I think:

Semifinal 1 - Jury vote:

Semifinal 1 - Televote:

Semifinal 1 - Total score:

Semifinal 2 - Jury vote:

Semifinal 2 - Televote:

(Not sure how it is with San Marinos televote this year, is it the same as last year, or does they not count their televote at all?)

Semifinal 2 - Total score:

Disclaimer: It might be so that each vote may not be perfect, but I suggest that you take each vote as it is and look more closely on the total scores.

Surprised at how terribly you think Cyprus, Austria and Serbia will do tbh. They've all definitely a decent shot at qualifying.

 

[QwaarJet]

Surprised at how terribly you think Cyprus, Austria and Serbia will do tbh. They've all definitely a decent shot at qualifying.

I'm more surprised that he has Estonia not qualifying. That would be as shocking as it gets.

 

[Schlagerman1]

Surprised at how terribly you think Cyprus, Austria and Serbia will do tbh. They've all definitely a decent shot at qualifying.

I thought in the beginning that Cyprus would qualify, mainly cause Greece has a bad song and at least one of these will qualify....but I have now rethought and think that Greece will just make it, mainly because it is uptempo in a ballad heavy semi, so I don't think there is enough space for Cyprus. Semi 1 is also very hard to predict, I feel there are a lot of songs that feels sorta similar to each other, that might cancel each other out (Albania/Georgia with big female ballads, Iceland/Cyprus of melancholic pop and so on).

Austria is a hard one to judge, but I just can't see it qualify. Maybe I was a little rough with the jury vote for them, but I totally can't see people remember Nathan after all 18 songs, the song ain't good enough for it and Austria hasn't enough friends to secure a qualification. Sure that they have a good track record recently, but I got a gutfeeling that it might be pretty bad live...

Serbia is for me the most forgettable song this year. I like it when I hear it, but when it ends I really have to concentrate to remember the chorus, that is the worst sign a Eurovision song can get. Take into account that it is drawn as number 1, a horrible draw for a forgettable song, who will remember this after all songs? I can see though, because of the strong Serbian diaspora that it can make it through, but it has to take points from a total trainwreck on stage from Macedonia (which for sure can happen, it is Macedonia after all..), who is fighting basically for the same votes. Also even if Serbia ended 13th in total, it is just 9 points up to the 10th place, so they do still have a shot of qualifying, it just didn't make it on this occasion.

 

[Schlagerman1]

I'm more surprised that he has Estonia not qualifying. That would be as shocking as it gets.

Estonia is the hardest one to judge for me out of all songs. They got a good draw, a chorus that you remember and a nostalgic ESC-feeling that many people, mainly in the older generation, might like and vote for. At the same time, it has a touch of being too polished and it feels cold and predictable, a bit like the swedish entries in the late 00s, and that doesn't usually work in Eurovision nowadays. I can see it qualifying (it is 11th, just 3p behind what I call "shock qualifier" Croatia), but I think it might get really high votes by some countries (Denmark, Malta, Lithuania, Norway mainly) while getting 0 from quite many as well.

 

[QwaarJet]

I thought in the beginning that Cyprus would qualify, mainly cause Greece has a bad song and at least one of these will qualify....but I have now rethought and think that Greece will just make it, mainly because it is uptempo in a ballad heavy semi, so I don't think there is enough space for Cyprus. Semi 1 is also very hard to predict, I feel there are a lot of songs that feels sorta similar to each other, that might cancel each other out (Albania/Georgia with big female ballads, Iceland/Cyprus of melancholic pop and so on).

Austria is a hard one to judge, but I just can't see it qualify. Maybe I was a little rough with the jury vote for them, but I totally can't see people remember Nathan after all 18 songs, the song ain't good enough for it and Austria hasn't enough friends to secure a qualification. Sure that they have a good track record recently, but I got a gutfeeling that it might be pretty bad live...

Serbia is for me the most forgettable song this year. I like it when I hear it, but when it ends I really have to concentrate to remember the chorus, that is the worst sign a Eurovision song can get. Take into account that it is drawn as number 1, a horrible draw for a forgettable song, who will remember this after all songs? I can see though, because of the strong Serbian diaspora that it can make it through, but it has to take points from a total trainwreck on stage from Macedonia (which for sure can happen, it is Macedonia after all..), who is fighting basically for the same votes. Also even if Serbia ended 13th in total, it is just 9 points up to the 10th place, so they do still have a shot of qualifying, it just didn't make it on this occasion.

I think you're letting your personal feelings for Serbia get in the way of your predictions. It's not generally regarded as a forgettable song, and like Sweden should benefit from opening the show. I agree that it is fighting for votes with Macedonia, but I think it will likely do better than Macedonia, especially with the juries. Obviously staging will be important with such fine margins, but I have more faith in the Serbian delegation for the visuals, and I expect Serbia to make it through in 4th or 5th place. Bear in mind the incredibly low quality of the second semi, and I see it easily qualifying.