Ireland IRELAND 2024 - Bambie Thug - Doomsday Blue

[ESC United Mod Team]

 

[Cathan]

Isn't the song itself a complete disaster?
Don't get me wrong, I really like that it's something different and daring for a chance, it is just really not my cup of tea and I can easily see this NQing

Saying a song is a disaster or not is a matter of opinion.

It doesn't really matter if it's youre cup of tea or not, it's still going to qualify and saying it won't is just setting yourself up to be suprprised/disappointed.

Tbh I hope this doubt is reflected in the qualifying betting odds as anything longer than 2.00 in the odds (essentially 50%) and I'm throwing the mortgage at it, easiest money I'll ever make!

 

[Cathan]

Yep

I think SF1 is easier to qualify from than SF2. Azerbaijan and Iceland feel to me like almost certain NQs. I also think Cyprus and Poland are in danger in the first half. And in the second half, I think Australia and Luxembourg are at risk (I'm not writing off Moldova yet). I'm not convinced about Portugal either.

Ireland stands out enough to qualify. I think all of the countries above have lower Q chance than Ireland.

Bar a complete disaster of a performance Ireland should beat pretty much every song mentioned here (although with Poland's diaspora it wouldn't surprise me if they finish higher than expected). This doesnt even include countries like Slovenia and Serbia who i'd expect Ireland to beat also.

 

[0scar]

Saying a song is a disaster or not is a matter of opinion.

It doesn't really matter if it's youre cup of tea or not, it's still going to qualify and saying it won't is just setting yourself up to be suprprised/disappointed.

Tbh I hope this doubt is reflected in the qualifying betting odds as anything longer than 2.00 in the odds (essentially 50%) and I'm throwing the mortgage at it, easiest money I'll ever make!

Nah I don't really think the song is a disaster, that was just lame joke of me. Still not my cup of tea though.
I would be really thrilled to see Ireland back in the final, even more when they decided to send something different, I hope that pushes them to stop sending the most beige songs like they did the past couple of years.

So no disappointment for me if it qualifies, I hope you're not setting yourself up for disappointment because Doomsday Blue doesn't click with a lot of people instantly this IS in danger of NQing.

 

[han-g]

Bar a complete disaster of a performance Ireland should beat pretty much every song mentioned here (although with Poland's diaspora it wouldn't surprise me if they finish higher than expected). This doesnt even include countries like Slovenia and Serbia who i'd expect Ireland to beat also.

I think luxembourg is getting the pimp slot so I wouldn't rule out them getting a higher televote score than Ireland. And of course we have yet to hear the revamp.

 

[Cathan]

Nah I don't really think the song is a disaster, that was just lame joke of me. Still not my cup of tea though.
I would be really thrilled to see Ireland back in the final, even more when they decided to send something different, I hope that pushes them to stop sending the most beige songs like they did the past couple of years.

So no disappointment for me if it qualifies, I hope you're not setting yourself up for disappointment because Doomsday Blue doesn't click with a lot of people instantly this IS in danger of NQing.

Oh okay no worries!

Yeah I get that part!

The point is it's the sort of song that will click with a lot of people, it also has a strong USP and is the only real song of its type in the semi so there's very little reason why it wouldn't Q in a 100% semi final where you cant vote down a song. The only way I see it NQing is if it has a complete disaster of a live performance. Yes it may not click with everyone but it will definetly click with enough people to Q. The amount of people it clicks with will determine if it only finishes 7th-8th in the SF or if it finishes 3rd-5th.

 

[Cathan]

I think luxembourg is getting the pimp slot so I wouldn't rule out them getting a higher televote score than Ireland. And of course we have yet to hear the revamp.

Unless there is some dodgy voting going on (i.e the same sort of thing San Marino are known for getting themselves involved in) then no I don't see it even with the pimp slot bar an incredible revamp. All the pimp slot will do is push Luxembourg from 11th-12th up to 8th-9th place. Songs like Fighter just don't tend to get massive televotes, they tend to get decent borderline sort of TV's and then get a strong jury score and Q of course there is no jury in this SF.

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

Unless there is some dodgy voting going on (i.e the same sort of thing San Marino are known for getting themselves involved in) then no I don't see it even with the pimp slot bar an incredible revamp. All the pimp slot will do is push Luxembourg from 11th-12th up to 8th-9th place. Songs like Fighter just don't tend to get massive televotes, they tend to get decent borderline sort of TV's and then get a strong jury score and Q of course there is no jury in this SF.

Tali isn't a particularly compelling performer either, based on the NF performance.

 

[han-g]

Unless there is some dodgy voting going on (i.e the same sort of thing San Marino are known for getting themselves involved in) then no I don't see it even with the pimp slot bar an incredible revamp. All the pimp slot will do is push Luxembourg from 11th-12th up to 8th-9th place. Songs like Fighter just don't tend to get massive televotes, they tend to get decent borderline sort of TV's and then get a strong jury score and Q of course there is no jury in this SF.

Well I do, I'm sorry Ireland I can't see many casuals warming to this quickly enough with just one listen. Is the irish diaspora plus fandom enough to see this qualify. It was enough for Serbia last year, but that's because the televote pulled very hard towards 9 songs. I don't think that will happen this year so Ireland is very much in borderline territory.

Actually I could potentially see a world where Moldova Australia and Azerbaijan (3 countries who can often pull staging out of the bag) in addition to luxembourg get more votes than Ireland, I could see the reverse happening too but its far from the certainty you're claming

 

[Cathan]

Well I do, I'm sorry Ireland I can't see many casuals warming to this quickly enough with just one listen. Is the irish diaspora plus fandom enough to see this qualify. It was enough for Serbia last year, but that's because the televote pulled very hard towards 9 songs. I don't think that will happen this year so Ireland is very much in borderline territory.

Actually I could potentially see a world where Moldova Australia and Azerbaijan (3 countries who can often pull staging out of the bag) in addition to luxembourg get more votes than Ireland, I could see the reverse happening too but its far from the certainty you're claming

Well you are in for a big surprise this year but don't say I didn't warn you! I hate to break it to you but Ireland is safely qualifying and will only be in the borderline territory if it has a terrible performance, like Serbia did last year.

Sorry, there is no world where Moldova, Australia & Azerbaijan get a higher TV than Ireland regardless of how good their staging is. No amount of staging can save a mediocre/boring song that they have.

It's fairly certain, not as certain as Croatia, Lithuania & Ukraine, but it's probably the next likely qualifier along with Finland.

About you're view of enough people not getting it on the first listen, I do think the poll of this forum is fairly accurate on how this song will do with the public. Yes it will alienate large sections, the highest score here is 0!, but if you count the amount of people that gave this song a top 3 score it ranks 4th behind the 3 I mentioned. I pretty much confirmed what I've always suspected that granted its not going to be for everyone on a first listen it's going to grab enough people and if it does it will definitely get votes whereas the 4 songs you mentioned while might offend less people those people are unlikely to pick up the phone for it compared to others.

 

[Cathan]

So Ireland get slot 4, not the best it could have been but considering the make up of the SF I think Ireland can be satisfied. Avoid the first 3 slots and got 2 mid tempo song's either side of it so should standout even more.

I also think the picture of SF 1 has been made clearer, we've never had the first 3 song's in a SF qualify before and with Lithuania being a certain Q then it's a safe bet to suggest that one of Cyprus or Serbia is going home in the SF.

Iceland, Azerbaijan, Australia & Moldova were always going home and still are and now it's safe to say one of Cyprus or Serbia is likely going to join them. Personally if there was any justice it would be Cyprus as Serbia deserves to Q.

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

So Ireland get slot 4, not the best it could have been but considering the make up of the SF I think Ireland can be satisfied. Avoid the first 3 slots and got 2 mid tempo song's either side of it so should standout even more.

I also think the picture of SF 1 has been made clearer, we've never had the first 3 song's in a SF qualify before and with Lithuania being a certain Q then it's a safe bet to suggest that one of Cyprus or Serbia is going home in the SF.

Iceland, Azerbaijan, Australia & Moldova were always going home and still are and now it's safe to say one of Cyprus or Serbia is likely going to join them. Personally if there was any justice it would be Cyprus as Serbia deserves to Q.

I've always thought Cyprus is in danger in this SF. It's a very average song and I don't see them bringing an amazing enough performance to Malmo to make it qualify.

Serbia I've thought was a borderline Q. Personally I don't like the song at all but the fans seem to...does it have wider appeal? Horrible running order slot might sink it now.

Australia's only hope of qualifying is if they bring a BIG performance that gets everyone moving. Turning up the didgeridoo in the mix would help. If the performance is bland with dull staging then it's a NQ.

Moldova I wonder if people are writing it off too soon because of the (admittedly poor) NF performance. I think it could qualify if they present a better package on the night.

I agree Azerbaijan and Iceland are dead on arrival - and for once I wouldn't mind Azerbaijan qualifying because I think it's one of their better entries, personally.

All in all I think Ireland is pretty safe, I see it coming 6th or 7th in this SF.

 

[han-g]

Well you are in for a big surprise this year but don't say I didn't warn you! I hate to break it to you but Ireland is safely qualifying and will only be in the borderline territory if it has a terrible performance, like Serbia did last year.

Sorry, there is no world where Moldova, Australia & Azerbaijan get a higher TV than Ireland regardless of how good their staging is. No amount of staging can save a mediocre/boring song that they have.

It's fairly certain, not as certain as Croatia, Lithuania & Ukraine, but it's probably the next likely qualifier along with Finland.

About you're view of enough people not getting it on the first listen, I do think the poll of this forum is fairly accurate on how this song will do with the public. Yes it will alienate large sections, the highest score here is 0!, but if you count the amount of people that gave this song a top 3 score it ranks 4th behind the 3 I mentioned. I pretty much confirmed what I've always suspected that granted its not going to be for everyone on a first listen it's going to grab enough people and if it does it will definitely get votes whereas the 4 songs you mentioned while might offend less people those people are unlikely to pick up the phone for it compared to others.

Considering I have it borderline I'm not going to be surprised if it qualifies and I'm also not going to be surprised if it nqs.

However I don't think casuals are going to surprise me. This is a song that needs more than one listen and yet one listen is all most people on the semis will get. If it qualifies it could then do better as its now the 2nd time people will listen to it possibly more if they seek it out on YouTube. The semi however, boderline

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

It won the public vote in the NF despite vast majority of the audience hearing it for the first time on the night. It was up against some much more 'conventional' entries and wasn't the favourite in the odds to win before the show.

 

[Cathan]

Considering I have it borderline I'm not going to be surprised if it qualifies and I'm also not going to be surprised if it nqs.

However I don't think casuals are going to surprise me. This is a song that needs more than one listen and yet one listen is all most people on the semis will get. If it qualifies it could then do better as its now the 2nd time people will listen to it possibly more if they seek it out on YouTube. The semi however, boderline

It could be borderline but it would take a poor performance for that to happen.

They will surprise you if you think this isn't going to get a strong tv. It might require more than 1 listen for people who are on the fence, but the reality is its target audience it will only require 1 listen. I think right now you are guilty of over thinking how the casual viewer vote, the reality is you probably think it will take more than one listen because you are basing it off your reaction to the song but the fact is, judging my comments of it, you probably aren't its target audience so were unlikely to vote for it anyway.

 

[Ted Talks]

It could be borderline but it would take a poor performance for that to happen.

They will surprise you if you think this isn't going to get a strong tv. It might require more than 1 listen for people who are on the fence, but the reality is its target audience it will only require 1 listen. I think right now you are guilty of over thinking how the casual viewer vote, the reality is you probably think it will take more than one listen because you are basing it off your reaction to the song but the fact is, judging my comments of it, you probably aren't its target audience so were unlikely to vote for it anyway.

And therein lies a problem for me. For a song to qualify, it has to appeal as widely as possible. To just dismiss some people as 'not in the target audience' and only pander to those that are in it is highly risky. Also comes across as widely arrogant too if you ask me.

I have always been a bit so-so with Ireland this year. It's nice they've gone different, but it could come across as a joke act to the general public - those who will see it once in the semi (and possibly never again) - depending on its staging. It's a risky song and I'm pleased they've risked it for once and not gone generic beige pop song.

I still think it's a borderline qualifier simply due to the divisive nature of the song.

 

[Cathan]

And therein lies a problem for me. For a song to qualify, it has to appeal as widely as possible. To just dismiss some people as 'not in the target audience' and only pander to those that are in it is highly risky. Also comes across as widely arrogant too if you ask me.

I have always been a bit so-so with Ireland this year. It's nice they've gone different, but it could come across as a joke act to the general public - those who will see it once in the semi (and possibly never again) - depending on its staging. It's a risky song and I'm pleased they've risked it for once and not gone generic beige pop song.

I still think it's a borderline qualifier simply due to the divisive nature of the song.

That's actually not true, in fact that's actually how song's NQ, they try to reach a wide range of viewers but ultimately only grab a handful and end up accidentally finishing 11th or 12th and NQ. Reaching a wide range of people works perfectly for a jury song but not a tele vote song. You can call it arrogant if you like but it's the reality of the situation.

No offence but none of the reasons you've given would lead to it struggling, in fact the reasons you've given are exactly why it'll easily make it.

 

[HarryUK]

Not Bambie going before Olly's preview performance

Y'all are doomed-sday blues

 

[MopManMoss]

Not Bambie going before Olly's preview performance

Y'all are doomed-sday blues

Bambie sticks out regardless of running order, the question is whether or not there is enough of an audience for them and whether or not it looks cheap.

I won't be voting if it's anything like the eurosong performance I hated the Cabaret esque performance of some parts of the song.

 

[Ted Talks]

That's actually not true, in fact that's actually how song's NQ, they try to reach a wide range of viewers but ultimately only grab a handful and end up accidentally finishing 11th or 12th and NQ. Reaching a wide range of people works perfectly for a jury song but not a tele vote song. You can call it arrogant if you like but it's the reality of the situation.

No offence but none of the reasons you've given would lead to it struggling, in fact the reasons you've given are exactly why it'll easily make it.

Blimey, the arrogance from yourself is astounding in that reply and some of your others earlier upthread by the looks of things. You seem to be taking it very personally that not everyone agrees with your opinion.

Are you seriously trying to say a poor performance - one of the reasons I highlighted as a potential problem - would not affect Ireland's qualification chances?

Another point I raised was the divisive nature of the song - which it is going by online reactions and this thread's poll - and how it could also play a part in NQing, but again you've dismissed it. Why are you arrogantly saying it won't? Those factors would affect any song, not just Ireland's.

And songs getting votes from lots of countries and a wide range of fans is surely better than just one section of fans? To me, that clearly makes more sense. But obviously not to you...

 

[Etanna]

It won the public vote in the NF despite vast majority of the audience hearing it for the first time on the night. It was up against some much more 'conventional' entries and wasn't the favourite in the odds to win before the show.

how many and which type of people are likely to have watched the NF and voted? Was it mostly just enthusiastic Eurovision fans or can it give us a glimpse of ordinary people's opinions?