So, like everyone else... I have no clue. And I love it!
But I'll throw in a few guesses (to laugh at later). We'll definitely have a better idea once rehearsals start, and then I'll probably switch all my guesses around, but that won't stop me from throwing random ideas out now =D
Potential Jury winners/top 5:
▪︎France, if Slimane keeps the Dora acapella stunt & others don't deliver or don't qualify
▪︎Belgium & Switzerland if they nail the staging and live vocals. Belgium is 'easier' to stage but they're track record is meh, while Switzerland is a wholeass uber risky pot of awesome but Switzerland often stages well
▪︎Italy, bcs Angelina is so charismatic and has that certain youthfulness mixed with a great security on stage. They do need to get the staging right, lively but IMO with a very, very clear focus on Angelina, bcs she's a Star
▪︎Portugal. I'm worried for their qualification, but if they make it to the GF it could be a big Jury pleaser - purposeful, very well performed with lovely vocals. It might be too 'artsy' tho I guess.
▪︎Ukraine & Sweden are also just two safe picks, but I think they're 'beatable' depending on how some riskier entries with more potential perform
▪︎for more 'unusual' picks: both UK & Slovenia might do well with Juries IMO if they get the staging truly right, and Olly and Raiven are two artists I see having a great Vision. Ollys performance abilities and Raivens siren notes might help too
Overall prediction: Switzerland nails everything and wins the jury, with Portugal, Italy, Belgium or France, and either Sweden or UK making the top 5.
Potential televote winners/top 5:
▪︎generally horrible to predict because there is so much televote bait this year
▪︎Netherlands/Estonia/Finland/Croatia are all kinda going for the "fun" vote. Croatia has the most hype in the bubble, but needs to clean up staging/live vocals to really work live. Netherlands has some hype too, less bubble-centric, but I find it harder to predict if it can have 'universal' appeal in several countries. But likely these two will beat the other two
▪︎Italy feels like the best 'girl bop' this year and might garner those votes. The biggest competition is Austria IMO
▪︎Switzerland with great staging could truly stand out
▪︎the ballad lovers might split their votes between Serbia & Portugal (the two best ballads IMO) and France for sheer vocals
▪︎Armenia or Greece could get a lot of "ethnic & fun song" lovers, tho my money is on Armenia. Might struggle bcs of Estonia & Co tho too
▪︎ Ukraine & Israel, not least bcs of 'political reasons'. Additionally both countries can stage well, and Ukraines song is very popular too while standing out for being calmer in an upbeat year. They're a sure top 5 in tele IMO, with Israel being more of a wildcard
▪︎Norway is just a complete Wildcard. Might win tele, might come last - I have no clue
Overall prediction: Ukraine will win the televote in a year very split between many acts, followed by Croatia. Then some combination of Netherlands, Switzerland, Italy, Armenia/Greece & Israel will round out the top 5.
Overall: the strongest contenders with Jury & tele to me are Switzerland & Italy, maybe Ukraine. So, for now I'm saying Switzerland. I think we'll have the jury winner win again, tho nobody will get Loreen kinda numbers. Televote might be very even between many acts, so something like jury #1 and tele #3/#4 might even win. Or a Duncan type of win. Somehow, I think the televote winner won't win again, just like last year. And we'll get some huge splits between jury & tele, more than usual.
is considered as a contender by 90 percent of people. The song is absolutely no winner material. And the war situation doesn’t produce a 300 televoting points situation anymore. Between 150 and 200 televoting points is possible again and maybe up to 100 jury points. But why should juries give this song more than 150 points or so?? It’s no jury song at all.
