So, like everyone else... I have no clue. And I love it!
But I'll throw in a few guesses (to laugh at later). We'll definitely have a better idea once rehearsals start, and then I'll probably switch all my guesses around, but that won't stop me from throwing random ideas out now =D
Potential Jury winners/top 5:
▪︎France, if Slimane keeps the Dora acapella stunt & others don't deliver or don't qualify
▪︎Belgium & Switzerland if they nail the staging and live vocals. Belgium is 'easier' to stage but they're track record is meh, while Switzerland is a wholeass uber risky pot of awesome but Switzerland often stages well
▪︎Italy, bcs Angelina is so charismatic and has that certain youthfulness mixed with a great security on stage. They do need to get the staging right, lively but IMO with a very, very clear focus on Angelina, bcs she's a Star
▪︎Portugal. I'm worried for their qualification, but if they make it to the GF it could be a big Jury pleaser - purposeful, very well performed with lovely vocals. It might be too 'artsy' tho I guess.
▪︎Ukraine & Sweden are also just two safe picks, but I think they're 'beatable' depending on how some riskier entries with more potential perform
▪︎for more 'unusual' picks: both UK & Slovenia might do well with Juries IMO if they get the staging truly right, and Olly and Raiven are two artists I see having a great Vision. Ollys performance abilities and Raivens siren notes might help too
Overall prediction: Switzerland nails everything and wins the jury, with Portugal, Italy, Belgium or France, and either Sweden or UK making the top 5.
Potential televote winners/top 5:
▪︎generally horrible to predict because there is so much televote bait this year
▪︎Netherlands/Estonia/Finland/Croatia are all kinda going for the "fun" vote. Croatia has the most hype in the bubble, but needs to clean up staging/live vocals to really work live. Netherlands has some hype too, less bubble-centric, but I find it harder to predict if it can have 'universal' appeal in several countries. But likely these two will beat the other two
▪︎Italy feels like the best 'girl bop' this year and might garner those votes. The biggest competition is Austria IMO
▪︎Switzerland with great staging could truly stand out
▪︎the ballad lovers might split their votes between Serbia & Portugal (the two best ballads IMO) and France for sheer vocals
▪︎Armenia or Greece could get a lot of "ethnic & fun song" lovers, tho my money is on Armenia. Might struggle bcs of Estonia & Co tho too
▪︎ Ukraine & Israel, not least bcs of 'political reasons'. Additionally both countries can stage well, and Ukraines song is very popular too while standing out for being calmer in an upbeat year. They're a sure top 5 in tele IMO, with Israel being more of a wildcard
▪︎Norway is just a complete Wildcard. Might win tele, might come last - I have no clue
Overall prediction: Ukraine will win the televote in a year very split between many acts, followed by Croatia. Then some combination of Netherlands, Switzerland, Italy, Armenia/Greece & Israel will round out the top 5.
Overall: the strongest contenders with Jury & tele to me are Switzerland & Italy, maybe Ukraine. So, for now I'm saying Switzerland. I think we'll have the jury winner win again, tho nobody will get Loreen kinda numbers. Televote might be very even between many acts, so something like jury #1 and tele #3/#4 might even win. Or a Duncan type of win. Somehow, I think the televote winner won't win again, just like last year. And we'll get some huge splits between jury & tele, more than usual.
has winner vibes all over
