ok so this semi is more interesting. I have not a clue who wins the semi. It could be
anyone from Lithuania, Australia, Belgium, Armenia, Austria and Slovenia, and some of them might still NQ.
this semi has two guaranteed qualifiers:
and
. There's no way either NQ. Lithuania have too many friends (and a VERY good qualification record in the televote) and Australia are closing with a fucking metal song.
Behind those two there's a big gap.
i think are the third most safe by default because they're guaranteed 2
's, and
is bad enough for all the hellene votes to flock towards Andrew instead. I'm apprehensive about ORF's
ability to do Teyalena justice, so I'm cautiously placing
here.
are stupidly underrated (have you heard the song?!) and will easily qualify i think, but again there's a chance europe just can't be bothered to care about Slovenia. roundin up this tier is
who have an excellent draw, a positive vibe and are stuck between two miserable ballads.The semi has a slow start, which will help Belgium kick it into motion.
OK so the borderlines. ALL OF THIS IS 100% STAGING DEPENDENT so take this with a several grains of salt.
are here ONLY because I have doubts about Brunette's on-stage presence. She seems... a bit low energy? If she gets it together she Qs, if she's a lamus she does not. Too early to call which is which. I'm leaning Q though.
is here because they're getting the 12 from Cyprus and a goodish mark from Denmark. The song's fucking rotten enough to die in the semi in spite of diasporia ties :-) (is this where i point out that both times Greece NQ'd they were in the SAME semi as Cyprus?)
's stupid nonsense could make it through on the merit of Iru's vocal prowess but well, you just read my assessment of her song. Could go either way.
On paper,
's song has merit, but its current presentation is a hyperactive mess. Diljá needs a foil to triumph over (a choir, a dancer, an LED screen). If she gets this together, she could Q, carried by
more than Denmark's
.
is on the cusp for being a screamy Tako-style ballad. could swing either way, I think it depends less on Alika's efforts and more on the above being
worse than expected.
are an act I like, and Teodor is pretty charming but the response to his song has been negative AND he has a very unfortunate draw. It'll be close, but I'm leaning 11th rn. Still,
are usually a televote qualifier (he
is getting votes from Belgium and Spain), so he could sneak in.
are probably an NQ, in part because nobody seems to care and also in part because it's a rather underwhelming opener. Iceland are the only country giving this a high mark. Reiley could make it in by raking in a bunch of mid votes, at the expense of an Alika or an Iru, but I'm feeling it less atm.
have a wide diasporia but the diasporia HATES blanka and since they didn't show up for Rafal I fear for her odds. Also um, we know what she sounds like.
have their fans but the Kelmendi's are very awkward live. There is a chance they find footing, but it's
tiny.
no amount of divine (or satanic) intervention will save
from last place.
tiers (in order)
Locks:
,
Qualifiers:
,
,
,
Borderline:
,
,
,
Probable NQs:
,
,
,
,
DoA:
