Who will qualify from Semifinal 1 2024?

[Realest]

Lets predict the 10 Qualifier from Semifinal 1.

 

[empo21]

Harder to predict than SF2 imo. I think Luxembourg closing has solidified it as sure Q at the expense of

 

[BorisBubbles]

I'll just C+P from the other thread:

Locks: , , - these will be the top 3 in the semi, no matter what the rest of the r/o looks like. Impossible any of them NQs

Likely qualifiers:
- pleasant midrange pop and it closes. It's basically the same as Snap, which was similarly received before the TikTok virality.
- A really nice draw for Portugal that should secure an already likely Q thanks to diasporia votes from Luxembourg. Needs more belting to really bring it home.
- Even under the worst vocals imaginable, Poland simply have too many allies in this semi to miss out on the final

Borderline qualifiers:
They're so lucky to be in the second half I swear. First half (or second semi) and they'd be DEDGE.
The R/O allows Raiven to make a strong impression as the best vocalist in the semi, and her good song is surrounded by insipid shit nobody cares about. Y'all need to believe. IT IS YOUR LACK OF BELIEF THAT WILL KILL HER, AND NOTHING ELSE
I don't really see how this gets a metric ton of votes, but I honestly feel there are too many songs below Azer on the totem pole for them to miss out here - but who knows
This draw is terrible for Serbia, and really brings out the flaws in Ramonda more. Visuals are more lasting if you're in the second half, and she just risks dying based on the audience's short term memory.
Before the draw I said Cyprus needed to dodge the first three spots in order to qualify, and lo and behold, they did not. This would be dead in a strong field. Semi 1 however, is not strong.


Unlikely qualifiers
- Going after Finland's.... much of something could benefit them, and it IS Moldova... but surely they'll NQ this year, right?
- This is a fairly okay draw on paper, but there hasn't been such a lack of hype for an Australian entry since Technocolour which everyone quasi-instantly identified as an NQ upon release. This one is heading towards the same path unless the staging is brilliant.

Dead on Arrival
The Witcher parts in Doomsday Blue are just... really abrasive, and I think they'll struggle to win enough people over right after Luktelk.
Bless Their Heart

So all in all: , , , , , , , , & .

 

[Realest]

Current Standings:

01
01
01
04
05
06
07
07
07
10
11
12
13
14
15

 

[94ayd]

 

[heke1988]

can also qualify instead of

No change

 

[Jupiter]

Basically sure qualifiers:

Very likely (partly bcs of running order):
(IMO Raivens RO isn't great, but she's just bloody awesome and will be incredible anyway)

I have no idea:

There are so many factors here. Staging & performance will play a huge role. In the end I went for Ireland (it's so unique and has it's completely own lane), Australia (bcs I think EF will give the best performance out of these acts) and Poland (100% only because of their diaspora).
This I guess would make Serbia my "shock NQ" prediction (likely influenced by me not liking the song much tbh).

Likely no chance at all:
(I'm sorry Hera I still like you. Just not that song...)

 

[ati0111]

SURE
1.Croatia
2.Ukraine
3.Lithuania

LIKELY
4.Slovenia
5.Serbia

MAYBE
6.Finland
7.Ireland
8.Luxembourg
9.Cyprus
10.Poland

11.Portugal
12.Australia

UNLIKELY
13.Moldova
14.Azerbaijan

NO
15.Iceland

 

[Realest]

Current Standings:

01
01
01
04
04 :fi
06
07
07
09
10

_________


11
12
12
14
15

 

[lasse braun]

semi 1 is for me the weaker one - have only found 7 countries,where i think they will make the cut (other much tougher semi full 10 voted .)

 

[Navn Navnes]

My prediction of placement order(This is not my personal preference, i will post in the other thread for that, though i of course coul overestimate the musictaste of the televoters)

Q
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Nq
11
12
13
14
15

Poland is borderline, Slovenia outside chance. Last 3 i would be shocked if any of them qualified.

 

[Realest]

Final Standings before the Rehearsals:

01 32
01 32
01 32
04 26
04 26
06 25
07 22
07 22
09 21
10 16

______________

11 15
12 13
13 11
14 09
15 02