Who from Semi 1 and 2 will qualify?

[goncalovieira]

NaltSEMI 1

I am sure about them


You are likely there


Get ready to struggle


Out



About Azerbaijan, I am expecting to fix them on "You Are Likely There".

 

[heke1988]

First semifinal:

Sure qualifiers:

Perhaps:

No change:

Second semifinal:

Sure qualifiers:

Perhaps:

No change:

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

SF1. Excluding Azerbaijan as we haven't heard their song yet.
Safe: Norway, Sweden, Moldova, Finland, Serbia, Czechia
Probably safe: Israel, Netherlands, Portugal.
NQ: Croatia, Latvia, Ireland, Switzerland, Malta.

Switzerland could save itself if the vocal performance and staging turn out to be top notch. Unlikely imo.
Portugal feels very borderline NQ/Q to me.
I am a little worried that Netherlands may NQ.

SF2. Excluding Georgia and Armenia not yet released. This is extremely hard as in my opinion most of the songs in this SF are poor and barely distinguishable in terms of quality.
Safe: Australia, Austria, Slovenia, Estonia
Probably Safe: Iceland, Denmark, Albania, Cyprus.
NQ: San Marino, Poland, Romania, Lithuania, Belgium, Greece.

I feel like Lithuania, Belgium and Greece do have hope of qualifying. I can't see it for San Marino, Poland and Romania

 

[heke1988]

First semifinal:

Sure qualifiers:

Perhaps:

No change:

Second semifinal:

Sure qualifiers:

Perhaps:

No change:

 

[Looren]

1st semi :

100% :

80% :

60% :

50% :

40% :

20% :

0% :

 

[Sabrewulf238]

First Semi Final (I'm assuming Loreen and Mimicat will win their national finals)

Solid:
Likely:
Borderline:
Unlikely:
No Chance:

10 Qualifiers:
Non Qualifiers:

I debated between Malta, Netherlands and Latvia for the last spot. I think people might be underestimating Malta a little, it's not going to rock the vote or anything but I could see it doing enough to get over the line. I'm also a bit suspicious of Netherlands chances in the televote with their song. De Diepte last year came 7th in the semi televote last year and it was a better song.

I know we haven't heard Azerbaijans song yet but I'm not getting the vibe that it'll be too competitive so I've just put it in borderline for now.

I'll wait to predict the second semi when we get the last few songs.

After hearing all of the songs my opinion on the qualifiers hasn't changed, although I'd move Azerbaijan from "borderline" down to "unlikely".

 

[ayzelto]

From 1st semifinal (random order)

Croatia
Norway
Serbia
Czechia
Israel
Moldova
Portugal
Sweden
Malta
Finland

 

[dannytr24]

 

[simori95]

So, we finally have all entries for the first semi and I will give a ranking with how I assume the Acts Will do. That said, I do have some caveats, for example that I see a chance for all my 3rd-5th places to possibly tank.

1st/ 2nd: Sweden and Finland
3rd / 4th / 5th: Moldova, Czechia and Norway
6th / 7th / 8th: Israel, Serbia and Croatia
9th till 12th: Portugal, Latvia, Netherlands and Malta
13th till 15th: Switzerland, Ireland and Azerbaijan

If I had to guess who will for sure qualify, I would go for . are quite likely to Qualify but somehow I am unsure, and the last two Spots will probably go to but I would not Count out and either.

 

[Mainshow]

Semi 1:
My guess/prediction from "100% to NQ".

------- 100% chance:
1
2
3
------- 90% chance:
4
5
------- 75% chance:
6
------- 50% chance:
7
8
9
------- 25% chance:
10
11
12
13
------- 0% chance:
14
15

 

[midnightsun]

Semi 1

Safe:
Probably:
Good chances:
Sneaks in:

out:

Of course I‘m doing my best to vote Latvia in! :-)

 

[akoz]

We got all songs for 1 semifinal, so my thoughts:
- no chance that they will miss the final
- very safe
- most likely, if performances will be at least half decent, they should be in the final.
- sure nq
- most likely nq

All others are borderline and everything will be decided in Liverpool. At the moment I'd say it's something like:
- 45% chance to qualify
- 22% to qualify
- 11% to qualify
Performances will be crucial for them.

 

[mauve]

First semi:



The first nine are quite certain, I think, but I struggled to find the 10th place. People believe that is a certain Q, but I am not so certain. I have no idea how will sound live, but I could see them Q. Wish that would too.

My own hopes:
- the rest I don't care about.

 

[12Pointsgoto.....]

I personally don't believe Azerbaijan will qualify sadly. Semi 1 is too strong, and I do not see a universe in which Israel does not qualify.

 

[simori95]

So, we finally have all entries for the first semi and I will give a ranking with how I assume the Acts Will do. That said, I do have some caveats, for example that I see a chance for all my 3rd-5th places to possibly tank.

1st/ 2nd: Sweden and Finland
3rd / 4th / 5th: Moldova, Czechia and Norway
6th / 7th / 8th: Israel, Serbia and Croatia
9th till 12th: Portugal, Latvia, Netherlands and Malta
13th till 15th: Switzerland, Ireland and Azerbaijan

If I had to guess who will for sure qualify, I would go for . are quite likely to Qualify but somehow I am unsure, and the last two Spots will probably go to but I would not Count out and either.

Actually I Kind of have to backtrack on this. I just watched a recap from Misja Eurowizja on YouTube, and this is one of the „loudest“ semi Finals we‘ve ever had, meaning there are very few Slow Songs. I think Switzerland and the Netherlands, maybe even Azerbaijan might profit from this, while Croatia and Czechia for example could do worse than expected because there is an „overflow“ of spectacle going on, so to speak. Also, I unfortunately fear that Malta, Croatia, Ireland and Latvia will cancel each other out. I know they’re not the same, but they were back to back in the recap and that felt to me as though the same Song just continued on and on, despite me knowing they’re very different. (Let’s hope they’re far from each other in the actual Contest).

 

[Hatari2600]

Guaranteed:
Likely:
Maybe:
No chance:

So my current guess:
Yep, there's probably way too many "guaranteed" and "likely" here but I feel like there's so many damn pieces of nothing here that would be dead on arrival in a larger semi. And of course this prediction will change back and forth all the way up to the evening of the semi.

 

[MopManMoss]

Having listened to the 15 semi 1 songs several times together I am beginning to think that The Netherlands might be in trouble



Czechia is pretty shakey for me though unless they seriously sort out their live performance also have some doubts as to how accessible Serbia is

 

[gigi_copp3]

Pretty sure about NQing in SF1. I think and will fight for last qualification placement.

 

[MAD20]

Now that Semi 1 is completed, let's go:

-Sure:
-Most likely:
-Probably:
-Most likely not:
-No chance at all:

I personally would love Malta and Latvia in the final instead of Croatia and Israel...

 

[midnightsun]

…while Croatia and Czechia for example could do worse than expected because there is an „overflow“ of spectacle going on, so to speak.

I was inclined to put as a FFF but since it’s televote only its Q chances are pretty good since it’s in the Semi with , and . I guess these four countries (their audiences, respectively) will vote for each other the most and will all gather votes from these countries.

, and will vote for each other in first place(s), securing their spots in the final (which they probably did without voting for each other). Juries of a country tend to put favourites of the "opponents" lower than the televote does (which is more honest in this case unless… bought) so good for all of them we don’t have them in the semis.

So these seven countries are pretty much safe. The remaining songs fight for votes from a) Western Europe or b) Eastern Europe. Musical preferences are pretty different in both parts of Europe.

I can see Western televoters going for , Eastern probably . and will get the same amounts from both parts.

is the biggest loser that there are no juries; otherwise they‘d be in. doesn’t have UK or Australia in the semi who‘d vote for them. is a hopeless case unless people are touched by the "don’t wanna be a soldier" narrative and … oh well.