I have been one of the big “vocals first” supporters, but “vocals first” doesn’t mean vocals only.
As for the odds, looks like UK is in a similar spot to this time last year — right outside the top 10 most likely to win, and near/at most likely to lose. I’d assume this means another lower-mid-table finish.
So, I was right lol.
The issue remains. You need strong vocals, which they more or less achieved, but you also need a strong song. This isn't uniquely a UK problem, but it has been demonstrated (especially this year) that each country has different expectations placed on them. This is further supported by the statements from others in this and the previous thread about the UK being among the top 3 largest exporters of music and musical talent. The UK needs to submit not just "a" song, or even a "passable" song, but the cleanest and most stage-ready song they can muster in order to score a top 10 placing (or higher). Italy is rewarded year over year for this exact reason. While the BBC seems allergic to the idea of doing a British "Melodifestivalen" or a "Sanremo," they should at least invest the funds needed to produce a Sanremo-quality internally selected package of vocals + song + performance.
Mae Muller said during Eurovision week (
https://x.com/maemuller_/status/1923129229127917954):
"sorry but they put me up there to sing a song which is meant to be sung with heavy auto tune (just the vibe of the song) with no proper background vocals, and i was nervous as hell which didn’t help but like they fed me to the LIONSSSS omfg"
I think this summarizes where the UK has been song-wise + how ill-prepared the artists feel throughout the whole process. Mae herself went one to have a song with several million streams the same summer she participated.