Public vs. Jury top. 10's (semi qualifiers) (speculation thread)

[Schlagerman1]

I think you're letting your personal feelings for Serbia get in the way of your predictions. It's not generally regarded as a forgettable song, and like Sweden should benefit from opening the show. I agree that it is fighting for votes with Macedonia, but I think it will likely do better than Macedonia, especially with the juries. Obviously staging will be important with such fine margins, but I have more faith in the Serbian delegation for the visuals, and I expect Serbia to make it through in 4th or 5th place. Bear in mind the incredibly low quality of the second semi, and I see it easily qualifying.

Well sure my personal feelings might a thing here, but what else should I go on?
I mean, all the Eurovision-votes in the world could never fully guess how the outcome would be. Sure I listen to them, cause they do have some kind of impact in the end, but there are millions of facts to go through. It might be so that Macedonia would fail, I can agree on that the score for them is a bit over the top, and that the jury one for Serbia might be a little too few points in total, but I still don't see how Serbia can be a secure finalist. The little I've seen of Tijana is that she seems to be a singer that lacks quite a lot of charisma and her voice isn't standing out either. Even with a strong visual effect, I wouldn't be certain for people to really emotionally connect to the song. The semi has slightly lower quality, but it also has a lot of songs that really "steals" the spot light, like Romania and Belarus, which will get a good feeling in the arena and still will do very well in the televote (Romania could be top 3 in the televote I believe). I think at least one or perhaps two of the former yugoslav countries will qualify to the final, and in my opinion Macedonia is a clear finalist (if they don't screw up live). Then Croatia and Serbia has to battle it out for the 2nd spot, but it isn't a certain one, thinking that this semi is basically all over the place and the ones that nails it on the night might take those last spots.

 

[ZoboCamel]

I think you're letting your personal feelings for Serbia get in the way of your predictions. It's not generally regarded as a forgettable song, and like Sweden should benefit from opening the show. I agree that it is fighting for votes with Macedonia, but I think it will likely do better than Macedonia, especially with the juries. Obviously staging will be important with such fine margins, but I have more faith in the Serbian delegation for the visuals, and I expect Serbia to make it through in 4th or 5th place. Bear in mind the incredibly low quality of the second semi, and I see it easily qualifying.

I've got Serbia as a qualifier in my own predictions, but I can see where he's coming from. Yes, it's well-produced, opens the show, and is from a country traditionally boosted by diaspora votes... but it just doesn't seem to have any unique selling point whatsoever. It's a midtempo song with no real distinguishing features, performed by a singer who has so far shown little charisma live, and sees a slew of vaguely similar songs performing later than it in the running order, which could push it to the back of people's memories. It seems like the kind of thing that may suffer from being #5 or something in a lot of people's rankings but only vary rarely that #1-#3 that people tend to vote for.

Now, I do think it stands a slightly better chance than the songs directly after it - the opening batch of SF2 seems rather weak, and I'm predicting #2 Austria, #3 Macedonia, and #4 Malta to all fall slightly short. If that happens, we're probably seeing Serbia qualify. If one or more of them give a pleasant surprise with their live performance, though... then I think Serbia could be in real trouble.

Again, I think they're probably squeezing through as things stand; I'm just saying I can see both sides here.

 

[SwedishFailurez]

As we now know how all the entries will perform on stage and what we are expecting from them, I updated my prediction-list.

SF 1

Overall Rank	Country	Televote	Jury
1		1	3
2		3	2
3		2	6
4		6	1
5		5	4-5
6		7	4-5
7		4	13
8		9	7
9		8	12
10		10	9

SF 2

Overall Rank	Country	Televote	Jury
1		1	1
2		3	3
3		2	17
4		8	2
5		6	5
6		7	7
7		4	11
8		10	6
9		9	10
10		5	14

• I think the margin between points will the larger in the televotes. That's why I think entries like Romania, Armenia and Portugal may get the upper hand compared to most juries top 3's.
• I still think Portugal will be beloved by the general viewers. This will do well with the juries, but Salvador has to compete with other top contenders to get enough attention from the juries.
• Great staging is indeed the key to success. There are big gainers and losers regarding that.
  Winners = and .
  Losers = and
• I think Bulgaria will be the overall winner of all the semi finals followed by Portugal, Sweden, Armenia, Denmark and Finland. But alot can change in the grand final

 

[Alaska49]

oops wrong thread.

anyway BELGIUM IS QUALIFYING good day

 

[ParadiseES]

After SF 1 this is my speculation:

TELEVOTING
1-
2-
3-
4-
5-
6-
7-
8-
9-
10-
11-
12-
13-
14-
15-
16-
17-
18-

JURY
1-
2-
3-
4-
5-
6-
7-
8-
9-
10-
11-
12-
13-
14-
15-
16-
17-
18-

So, the overall result would look like this:
1- PORTUGAL
2/3- ARMENIA/SWEDEN
4- AZERBAIJAN
5/6- BELGIUM/AUSTRALIA
7/8- MOLDOVA/POLAND
9- CYPRUS
10- GREECE
11/12- Slovenia/Finland
13- Latvia
14- Czech Republic
15- Georgia
16- Albania
17- Iceland
18- Montenegro

 

[94ayd]

& made the viewers' top 10, whereas & didn't.

 

[tuorem]

Both juries/viewers might have shared these:
Juries favoured:
Viewers favoured:
Out in both tops:

I guess both parties disagreed about the borderline qualifiers only, and and bore the brunt of it.