I’m a bit hit or miss. I’ve had some predictions which I can loudly say “I told you so!” such as when I predicted that Occidentali’s Karma would not even be considered close to win, but I also predicted Azerbaijan 2014 to end top 3 soo
I personally think that I have some sort of intuition when it comes to predicting the outcome of the grand final AFTER both semi finals + rehearsal clips of the Big 5 + host entry. - Last year, I ended up being #2 of 30 participants of a "private Eurovision fans+friends party) of predicting the actual outcome.
However, I usually just predict 6-7 semi finalists correctly (last year's semi 2 as an exception).
Also, my predictions based on studio versions alone isn't good either but to be fair, we all know that the performances are the most important factor in the end.
I'm rather good at making bold, quite out there predictions. That's my specialty. If I'd been a betting man I'd probably be incredibly rich by this point. Some of my best predictions which went very much against what other fans thought:
- Suus would go top 5
- Maybe would bring Valentina to the final
- Cezar's It's My Life would reach the final and slay - To The Sky to storm the top 5
- Rise Like A Phoenix would win (and I said this the VERY moment it was revealed)
- 1944 would win (again, the very moment it was revealed)
- Midnight Gold would reach the final
- Say Na Na Na would reach the final and get San Marino their best result
- Proud would get Macedonia their best ever result
If I love a song (especially ballads) immediately from the very first listen, it's usually an amazing sign. If a song is one of my favourites but took a while to grow on me, that can end in disaster (Blackbird, World etc). The one time I didn't predict trusting my emotions was with Salvador back in 2017. I didn't believe at all it was possible for him to win.
Also, like Ashley I'm quite good at successfully pointing out the fanwanks, but then that's never particularly a difficult thing to do.
I've always failed in predictions. I hardly saw the best song win. I want to talk about the last 3 editions: in 2019, when he had to win Mahmood or Lundvik won Duncan Lawrence, in 2018, when he had to win Cesar Sampson won Netta ..., in 2017, he won Sobral and I can say "Ok" (I I preferred the Sunstroke Project) even if the victory of the Portuguese singer was unpredictable! In polls and betting odds "Amar pelos dois", if I remember correctly, she never entered the "Top 5".
Honestly, I'm pretty blind when it comes to figuring out who will be the winner. Even when it's time for rehearsal week and bookies are pretty much set on the victor I don't fully process it. So when the final night comes I somehow always end up surprised.
And anyway, when I try to predict I always fail so why bother.
I am terrible at predicting because I often have a very different taste from many in the current ESC bubble which maybe has to do with my age. So I had to realize no song will ever win that I imagine people my age and older would like. Our time is over and I have to accept ESC has become modern (well... that’s what I always wanted when I was younger and hoped Eurovision would get rid off that old fashioned music - and it finally did!).
So, speaking of predicting... there was only one winner I ever predicted correctly (taken aside I believed Arcade could be a probable winner - though I said Norway and in a way, it’s true somehow). And that was Rybak 2009 because it‘s simply THE most typical ESC song ever. If this had not won, what else? Thing song is everything Eurovision is about.