Estonia ESTONIA 2024 - 5miinust & Puuluup - (nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi

[ESC United Mod Team]

 

[laululind]

I've seen zero buzz for Nele-Liis, so I'm not expecting her to do all that much personally. I'm sure her song will have some fans, and her vocals will probably be decent.. but we also have Daniel Levi and Uudo Sepp going after the ballad votes, so I don't really see Nele-Liis in televote top 5. Wouldn't be surprised to see her in bottom 3 actually, but perhaps I underestimate her fanbase, who knows. I guess if the other ballads disappoint vocally, she could benefit. Neither Danier nor Uudo is really a vocal powerhouse.. but I do expect their songs to be more popular.

 

[lasse braun]

Official photoshoot from ERR.

can we name the 2 backgroundcolors "bridges"?

 

[henhu]

Looks like 5 Miinust and Ollie are 50:50 in odds. I am totally team 5 Miinust now

 

[laululind]

I don't even know which to root for. Both, I guess! It's not a bad position to be in when you like both front-runners. As a song I'd listen to on my own time, I prefer Ollie.. 5Miinust does gets a little repetitive after a while. But if you add in a visual element & (surprisingly strong) live performance, they're about on par for me. So I guess I'm waiting for the live shows to see who brings the best staging and package to the table! I think both would be pretty cool winners tho'.

In regards to potential ESC results, Ollie would be the more safe option I guess. Rock songs tend to do decently (as long as they're decent anyway), and unless we ended up in a really strong semi, or had to go against several other good rock songs.. I think he'd be a pretty safe qualifier. Hard to say what he'd do in the final, but mid-table or lower top ten could possibly happen. Finland 2021 had a similar slightly dated Linkin Park vibe and they were 4th with televoters. Juries could go any which way tho', some rock songs they love (Australia last year), some they totally sink.

What 5Miinust would achieve is harder to predict. Seems like the kind of song televoters would like, but then we've seen fun/weird/joke entries sink without a trace too. The fact we might have an overload of them this year is a bit worrying. Some of them will be bound to flop. So anything could happen in the semi, depending on who we were up against & how much we stood out. Could be top 3, or surprise NQ. If we did make the final, I don't think we'd have much success with the juries.. but televoters could help us out. Maybe mid-table in the end? Top 10 would require at least some jury love, or really high televote score.

Guess we'll have a better idea once we get more songs.. and semi allocation.. and running order.. But first we have to see what actually happens in Eesti Laul! Will the rock fans & Ollie stans get their revenge this year? Or will the quirky antics & popularity of 5Miinust leave poor Ollie in second place yet another time? Or will Daniel Levi sneak up from behind, wow all the moms and dads and grab a surprise victory? Or will someone else surprise and enter the fray? Last one seems less likely, but you never know. Bring on the semi!

 

[eerik]

Weekly YouTube stats update. Main uploads only, though for Oblivion I also tracked the record label upload.

Performer	Song	Views	Likes	Comments
5MIINUST x Puuluup	(nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi	383,636	5,675	512
OLLIE	My Friend	150,977	3,502	459
YONNA	I Don't Know About You	97,710	311	39
Traffic	Wunderbar	67,695	1,148	78
Daniel Levi	Over the Moon	50,691	1,080	171
Anet Vaikmaa	Serotoniin	49,078	730	87
Brother Apollo	Bad Boy	47,066	398	39
Cecilia	FOMO	45,996	1,006	119
Cartoon, Ewert Sundja	Oblivion	27,931	530	51
Ingmar	Dreaming	26,594	679	119
INGA	No Dog on a Leash	22,979	412	51
Sofia Rubina	Be Good	22,910	116	35
Peter Põder	Korra veel	22,739	273	28
Uudo Sepp, Sarah Murray	Still Love	22,689	290	25
Nele-Liis Vaiksoo	Käte ümber jää	19,484	206	9
Carlos Ukareda	Never Growing Up	18,540	275	24
Ewert and The Two Dragons	Hold Me Now	18,100	235	29
Laura	Here's Where I Draw the Line	17,113	189	31
Antsud	Vetevaim	14,587	246	50
Silver Jusilo	Lately	14,104	156	19
Cartoon, Ewert Sundja	Oblivion (Liquicity upload)	9,506	494	22

Weekly views only

Performer	Song	Weekly views
5MIINUST x Puuluup	(nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi	74,904
OLLIE	My Friend	19,842
Traffic	Wunderbar	11,232
Anet Vaikmaa	Serotoniin	7,171
Cecilia	FOMO	6,925
Daniel Levi	Over the Moon	5,713
Sofia Rubina	Be Good	5,427
INGA	No Dog on a Leash	4,576
Cartoon, Ewert Sundja	Oblivion (Liquicity upload)	4,064
Brother Apollo	Bad Boy	2,720
Cartoon, Ewert Sundja	Oblivion	2,681
YONNA	I Don't Know About You	2,309
Ingmar	Dreaming	2,069
Laura	Here's Where I Draw the Line	2,025
Carlos Ukareda	Never Growing Up	2,018
Uudo Sepp, Sarah Murray	Still Love	1,978
Nele-Liis Vaiksoo	Käte ümber jää	1,955
Antsud	Vetevaim	1,875
Ewert and The Two Dragons	Hold Me Now	1,796
Silver Jusilo	Lately	1,700
Peter Põder	Korra veel	1,647

 

[lasse braun]

5MIINUST x Puuluup	(nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi	74,904
OLLIE	My Friend	19,842

it seems that the olliemania loosing ground - i like that.

 

[SpZ]

it seems that the olliemania loosing ground - i like that.

I do not think that olliemania has ever been a thing outside of ESC forums. E.g. haven't really heard anyone speaking about Ollie this year .

 

[outsynk]

5MIINUST will flop hard at Eurovision if they win lol but good luck to us.

 

[laululind]

I do not think that olliemania has ever been a thing outside of ESC forums. E.g. haven't really heard anyone speaking about Ollie this year .

Since the shows are yet to happen, many people don't know anything about the songs yet anyway and our data points are rather limited. But from the few articles and posts we've had in social media, I've seen plenty of mentions of Ollie in the comments. About on par (if not slightly higher) than 5Miinust, with Daniel Levi trailing a bit behind. We'll have a much better idea about their popularity and winning chances after the semi, obviously. But I've found social media comments and likes to be a pretty reliable metric for judging our televote results. In some cases, you can tell what foreign fans think, vs what our televoters will go for. In 2020, all the foreigners were predicting Jaagup to win, but you only needed to look at a random EL post to see hundreds of UKU! UKU! UKU! comments, and you could tell what will happen... So, from what limited data we have thus far, I don't think Ollie is only a foreign fave, he seems to have plenty of local fans this year too. Whether it'll be enough to win tho' is hard to say. Could see it happen, or see him ending up 2nd again.. I definitely wouldn't take YT views or spotify charts as confirmation that 5Miinust has it in the bag either, those have been wrong pretty often. Personally I think it's going to be a pretty close run between 5Miinust and Ollie (with Daniel as potential dark horse), and I've no idea who will come out on top in the end! Perhaps in another week, we'll have a better idea!

 

[eerik]

Tommy Cash for Eesti Laul 2025 please!

It's been a pipedream for a decade, but I think it becomes more realistic with each day. He already has a handful of Eurovision related collabs in the past few years. Most recent being with Käärijä 2023 (UMK interval act maybe?)

Before that with Danny L Harle 2024 (fun fact, Caroline Polachek is credited as a writer on this)

and before that a couple with Little Big 2020

 

[BorisBubbles]

Estonian reviews have started: Part 1 is here

 

[laululind]

Rehearsals are underway! Somewhat small stage, but guess that was expected. Let's hope it looks good on camera!

From the pics, it seems the most prevalent staging is 'band with instruments on stage'. Ollie (he's also got a piano), Peter Põder, Anet, Ingmar (tiny string orchestra), Antsud and Ewert with the Dragons all have the band setup going. Couple of people are going solo: Inga, Yonna, Laura & Silver are all on their lonesome by the looks of it. Sofia Rubina and Cecilia have dancers. 5Miinust is doing their own dance thing. Traffic has something going on, but hard to say what.. treadmills? Taking a page out of the Robin Bengtsson playbook? And Ewert + Cartoon have everyone (aside from Ewert) wearing black jumpsuits. Wonder if that's just for style or if they're planning some camera effects.

I'd say my guess for qualification chances would be something like this:

80% / Good odds: Ollie "My Friend", 5miinust ja Puuluup "(nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi"
60% / Tentative yes: Anet Vaikmaa "Serotoniin", Traffic "Wunderbar"
50% / Fighting for that last spot: Cartoon + Ewert Sundja "Oblivion", Ingmar "Dreaming", Cecilia "FOMO"
35% / Tiny glimmer of hope: Ewert and The Two Dragons "Hold Me Now", Yonna "I Don't Know About You", Antsud "Vetevaim"
20% / Quite unlikely: Peter Põder "Korra veel", Inga "No Dog On a Leash", Laura "Here's Where I Draw the Line"
5% / Need a miracle: Silver Jusilo "Lately", Sofia Rubina "Be Good"

But in such a big semi, anything could happen. I'd only really be surprised if Ollie & 5Miinust failed to make it, or Silver & Sofia somehow qualified. Televote seems reasonably easy to predict, but if the juries have very different ideas, things could get messy. Well, in another 2 days, we shall see what happens!

 

[eerik]

Seeing 10-second clip from the rehearsal was enough to convince me that 5MIINUST x Puuluup are going to win 100%.

Estonian language is back on the Eurovision Song contest stage after a decade of absence, and not with a random generic ballad, but with an exciting upbeat crossover by one of the most popular Estonian bands of the past decade, and a neo-folk duo using traditional instruments.

We did it!

 

[eerik]

Here's some random kids rating the semi-finalists for ERR's kids' show.

They loved 5MIINUST x Puuluup. What they said:
"Already from the title you can tell this is a good song because drugs are bad."
"I like that it is a mix of folk and modern music, but I don't know if I would send it ot Eurovision."
"The dance is cool."

Their top 5:
1. 5miinust x Puuluup "(nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi"
2.-3. Traffic "Wunderbar"
2.-3. Cartoon ja Ewert Sundja "Oblivion"
4. Ingmar "Dreaming"
5. Anet Vaikmaa "Serotoniin"

If ERR wants to use regular people from different age groups as part of their final jury (as stated in the rules), please use these kids!

 

[laululind]

Is that 10-second clip available somewhere?
I wouldn't pop the champagne just yet, in any case. Wouldn't be the first time when EL results end up being unexpected! Not that Ollie or Daniel winning would be that unexpected, I guess. Going to wait and see what the feedback and consensus will be after the semi myself. Whoever is getting the most buzz & best ratings after Saturday will probably have the best chances.
It's another year where I wish we could send two songs! Would love to see what both Ollie and 5Miinust would accomplish in May. Alas, only one will (probably) get the chance!

 

[eerik]

From Ringvaade.

Is that 10-second clip available somewhere?

From Ringvaade

 

[laululind]

From Ringvaade

Tänud! Totally missed that one! Wouldn't mind if they did another (longer) clip tomorrow, showing more of the semi-finalists! But if not, guess we don't have long to wait until we see them all anyway!

5Miinust does look pretty strong! Hope they've been working on their stamina so they don't get out of breath after all that dancing. They're lucky we've got a 3-song superfinal these days! If it was still 2, I could definitely see some anti-voting taking place in favor of a more safe song. It'll be interesting to see what the juries make of them! Having good vocals should net them a little favor perhaps, but will they do better than expected.. or will the weirdness be too much for the juries' (usually conservative) tastes.

 

[eerik]

YT stats update before the semifinal.

Performer	Song	Views	Likes	Comments
5MIINUST x Puuluup	(nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi	473,402	6,629	587
OLLIE	My Friend	173,521	3,791	485
YONNA	I Don't Know About You	100,838	335	40
Traffic	Wunderbar	84,786	1,347	89
Anet Vaikmaa	Serotoniin	58,364	808	93
Daniel Levi	Over the Moon	57,266	1,151	179
Cecilia	FOMO	56,017	1,135	129
Brother Apollo	Bad Boy	50,580	425	44
Cartoon, Ewert Sundja	Oblivion	31,908	592	52
INGA	No Dog on a Leash	30,713	483	53
Sofia Rubina	Be Good	29,876	130	35
Ingmar	Dreaming	29,669	705	123
Peter Põder	Korra veel	25,628	304	31
Uudo Sepp, Sarah Murray	Still Love	25,444	305	26
Nele-Liis Vaiksoo	Käte ümber jää	22,618	220	20
Carlos Ukareda	Never Growing Up	21,548	294	25
Ewert and The Two Dragons	Hold Me Now	20,816	263	N/A
Laura	Here's Where I Draw the Line	20,346	208	32
Antsud	Vetevaim	17,809	279	49
Silver Jusilo	Lately	16,934	165	19
Cartoon, Ewert Sundja	Oblivion (Liquicity upload)	11,365	545	22

Comments have been disabled on "Hold Me Now". Last number I got was 29 comments on Thursday (18th).

Just weekly views:

Performer	Song	Weekly views
5MIINUST x Puuluup	(nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi	89,766
OLLIE	My Friend	22,544
Traffic	Wunderbar	17,091
Cecilia	FOMO	10,021
Anet Vaikmaa	Serotoniin	9,286
INGA	No Dog on a Leash	7,734
Sofia Rubina	Be Good	6,966
Daniel Levi	Over the Moon	6,575
Cartoon, Ewert Sundja	Oblivion	3,977
Brother Apollo	Bad Boy	3,514
Laura	Here's Where I Draw the Line	3,233
Antsud	Vetevaim	3,222
Nele-Liis Vaiksoo	Käte ümber jää	3,134
YONNA	I Don't Know About You	3,128
Ingmar	Dreaming	3,075
Carlos Ukareda	Never Growing Up	3,008
Peter Põder	Korra veel	2,889
Silver Jusilo	Lately	2,830
Uudo Sepp, Sarah Murray	Still Love	2,755
Ewert and The Two Dragons	Hold Me Now	2,716
Cartoon, Ewert Sundja	Oblivion (Liquicity upload)	1,859

 

[lasse braun]

have heard all songs again - like now also the song from antsud because it has a "guitarbreak".
a lot of so named juryfood in this semi - everything can happen.

 

[njdevils94]

5Miinust + Puuluup, Ollie, Anet Vaikmaa, Antsud and Yonna would be my preferences to make the final.

Only feel absolutely confident on the first two though. Inga, Cartoon & Ewert Sundja or Cecilia would be making it would be alright as well depending on how their performances go.