Betting Odds 2021

[midnightsun]

I wouldn’t give a sh... about betting odds in Eurovision because it’s rigged! Not rigged in the usual sense but betting in Eurovision is a self fulfilling prophecy!

The higher the songs in the betting odds the more juries will vote for it (In general. Not in every case. I made a posting here about that a few years ago when I compared the betting odds with the final jury ranks of the past years).

Juries always tend to make safe choices because, you know, since their results are made public they are a bit afraid to stand out.

This year I have a feeling it could be different for the first time. Of course, juries will vote for the usual suspects (aka rank 1-5 in the betting odds) but I suppose we will have some surprises this year because I feel there‘s a different atmosphere this year.

You can already tell by the choice of songs that many countries do their thing, didn’t send typical winning material and didn’t even try. We didn’t have such a variety of genres and musical throwbacks in decades!
And this spirit will certainly influence juries this year. I‘m pretty sure they will be courageous enough this year to vote for outstanding songs because it’s a special year. A year where winning isn’t the most important.

 

[Ezio]

The betting odds are rigging the running order after all.

Cesar Sampson got the same amount of televotes than Netta in Semi 1, but was pushed to the wrong end of the running order and got lost in the recency bias in the Grand Final, just because his betting odds were poor.

 

[esc87fan]

The odds have a new leader - Switzerland has overtaken Iceland!

 

[Slabsson79]

And Belarus still having a (slightly) higher chance of winning the ESC than does....well, I guess we´re doomed.

 

[EscGeek]

And Belarus still having a (slightly) higher chance of winning the ESC than does....well, I guess we´re doomed.

Your avatar..

 

[njdevils94]

Victoria up to 2nd in the odds now after Dadi's release of 10 years.

 

[Realest]

Victoria up to 2nd in the odds now after Dadi's release of 10 years.

She was there already before, NJ.

 

[esc87fan]

Malta knocks Bulgaria out of the #2 spot, Switzerland now has almost a 20% chance of winning

 

[heke1988]

Norway jumped over San Marino and Finland to #10 spot. Stone Cold Steve Austin would say "WHAT!".

 

[heke1988]

took 1 place from .

 

[Realest]

Now that Belarus is finally out, these are the official first complete Betting Odds of the Season.

1		Malta Destiny - Je Me Casse	16%	4.33	4.25	4.25	4.5	4.5	4	4	3.5	4.5	4.5	4.25	5.2	4.5	4.5	5	5.4	5.4
2		Switzerland Gjon's Tears - Tout l'univers	14%	4.33	5	5	5	5.5	6	6	5.5	4	3.85	4.25	6.3	5.5	5	6	7.2	7.2
3		France Barbara Pravi - Voilà	10%	7.5	8	8	7	7	7	7	6	7.5	7.5	7	8	7	7	7	8.2	8.2
4		Bulgaria Victoria - Growing Up Is Getting Old	8%	9	10	10	9	10	9	10	8	8	8	10	11	9	10	11	13	13
5		Italy Måneskin - Zitti e buoni	7%	10	11	11	10	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	11	10	10	11	13	13
6		Sweden Tusse - Voices	7%	12	10	10	11	11	13	11	10	10	10	12	13	10	10	11	14	14
7		Lithuania The Roop - Discoteque	5%	15	15	15	15	17	17	19	14	15	15	15	19	15	15	15	17	19
8		Iceland Daði & Gagnamagnið - 10 Years	5%	15	15	15	15	17	17	13	18	17	17	19	17	12	17	13	17	17
9		Cyprus Elena Tsagrinou - El Diablo	3%	29	26	26	20	26	21	26	25	26	26	34	20	23	26	26	30	32
10		Finland Blind Channel - Dark Side	2%	34	21	21	25	34	26	34	25	34	34	34	28	26	29	34	36	40
11		San Marino Senhit - Adrenalina	2%	41	34	34	35	34	26	34	25	31	31	34	33	26	26	26	29	36
12		Norway TIX - Fallen Angel	2%	34	34	34	30	34	26	34	25	31	31	34	32	29	34	34	30	40
13		Russia Manizha - Russian Woman	2%	41	41	41	40	34	34	41	25	34	34	34	42	34	34	41	40	40
14		Greece Stefania - Last Dance	2%	41	51	51	40	51	41	41	25	41	41	51	45	34	41	34	44	44
15		Moldova Natalia Gordienko - Sugar	2%	41	51	51	45	41	34	51	25	41	41	34	50	51	41	51	60	65
16		Romania Roxen - Amnesia	1%	51	51	51	65	51	51	51	50	51	51	67	50	51	51	51	70	70
17		Azerbaijan Efendi - Mata Hari	1%	81	67	67	70	81	51	81	50	41	41	51	60	81	51	67	120	130
18		Belgium Hooverphonic - The Wrong Place	1%	71	81	81	100	81	67	81	75	67	67	101	80	81	51	101	120	130
19		Croatia Albina - Tick-Tock	1%	126	81	81	75	81	51	81	75	67	67	101	80	81	67	101	140	150
20		Ukraine Go_A - Shum	1%	101	81	81	85	67	81	81	75	81	81	101	80	81	51	101	150	160
21		United Kingdom James Newman - Embers	1%	101	101	101	100	101	51	101	75	81	81	101	100	126	51	101	200	200
22		Australia Montaigne - Technicolour	1%	151	67	67	150	151	81	101	75	101	101	101	100	151	101	101	280	290
23		Austria Vincent Bueno - Amen	1%	151	101	101	120	101	101	101	100	101	82	101	150	151	101	101	280	300
24		Israel Eden Alene - Set Me Free	1%	201	151	151	200	176	101	101	100	151	151	101	150	126	101	101	100	100
25		Latvia Samanta Tīna - The Moon Is Rising	1%	201	101	101	150	126	101	151	100	101	101	101	120	251	101	101	500	640
26		Portugal The Black Mamba - Love Is On My Side	1%	201	101	101	200	201	126	151	75	126	126	101	150	201	101	101	300	360
27		Denmark Fyr & Flamme - Øve os på hinanden	<1%	201	81	81	200	201	126	101	100	151	151	101	150	251	101	101	300	350
28		Ireland Lesley Roy - Maps	<1%	151	151	151	150	151	126	151	100	126	126	101	200	251	67	101	300	410
29		Poland Rafał - The Ride	<1%	201	101	101	150	201	151	126	75	101	101	101	120	301	101	101	500	810
30		Netherlands J. Macrooy - Birth of a New Age	<1%	201	101	101	200	151	151	101	100	126	126	101	120	251	151	101	500	710
31		Germany Jendrik - I Don't Feel Hate	<1%	201	151	151	200	176	126	151	100	84	101	101	200	251	151	101	300	400
32		North Macedonia Vasil - Here I Stand	<1%	201	201	201	200	201	126	101	100	101	101	101	200	251	126	101	300	410
33		Serbia Hurricane - Loco Loco	<1%	201	151	151	200	126	151	151	75	126	126	101	200	251	101	101	500	710
34		Georgia Tornike Kipiani - You	<1%	201	151	151	200	151	151	101	100	126	126	101	150	251	151	101	500	880
35		Estonia Uku Suviste - The Lucky One	<1%	201	151	151	175	251	151	151	100	151	151	101	200	301	151	101	500	560
36		Slovenia Ana Soklič - Amen	<1%	201	201	201	200	201	201	201	100	151	151	101	200	301	251	101	300	410
37		Czech Republic Benny Cristo - Omaga	<1%	201	151	151	200	251	151	201	100	151	151	101	200	301	251	101	500	750
38		Spain Blas Cantó - Voy a quedarme	<1%	201	151	151	200	251	201	251	100	151	151	101	200	301	251	101	500	800
39		Albania Anxhela Peristeri - Karma	<1%	251	251	251	250	251	201	251	100	201	201	101	200	301	251	101	500	940

 

[Ianp16]

I still can't bear that the producers are allowed to organise the running order, and like some have mentioned, CLEARLY give the betting odds favourites the best places towards the end of the first or second half. It's so unfair to other entries. I'm completely happy with random order.

A prime example of this is Sweden. Not once have they been placed in the first 5 songs in the last ten years when they have drawn the first half, and they have usually been really high in the betting odds.

I think the producers should place the top 3 bookies favourites as the first 3 songs. THEN we will see if the running order doesn't make a difference. (Obviously this will never happen!), Would be interesting tho!

 

[midnightsun]

@Realest Do you know how Azerbaijan 2011 ranked before the final?

 

[Realest]

@Realest Do you know how Azerbaijan 2011 ranked before the final?

I only found this:

The full odds for Eurovision 2011 are:

6/4 France, 11/4 Ireland, 10/1 Azerbaijan, 10/1 UK, 12/1 Denmark, 14/1 Estonia, 16/1 Bosnia Herzegovina, 18/1 Sweden, 20/1 Austria, 20/1 Germany, 22/1 Finland, 22/1 Hungary, 50/1 Iceland, 50/1 Ukraine, 66/1 Georgia, 66/1 Russia, 80/1 Slovenia, 100/1 Serbia, 100/1 Switzerland, 100/1 Romania, 125/1 Greece, 125/1 Italy, 150/1 Moldova, 200/1 Lithuania, 200/1 Spain.

 

[midnightsun]

I only found this:

Wow. The odds were miles away from the final result. I mean I knew that year was strange but I didn't knew how much. Azerbaijan was 3rd at least in the betting odds... I had in mind they were about 6th or so.

 

[Realest]

3 Years ago.

 

[Iker]

Victoria up to 2nd in the odds now after Dadi's release of 10 years.

People falling into coma will not be able to vote though?

 

[EscUKFan]

3 Years ago.

Belgium 6th
Cyprus 23rd
Albania 38th

 

[Iker]

Belgium 6th
Cyprus 23rd
Albania 38th

Well in the hindsight it looks hilarious but Belgium had terrible life performance while Cyprus was great live.

 

[mauve]

Albania was 38th????? Holy Moly, never thought that. Or Germany 18th when it was 4th in the end. Cyprus 23th in the end 2nd, Betting odds can be really confusing.