Qualifier tiers (R/O update)
SF1:
Locks: 
,
,
- these will be the top 3 in the semi, no matter what the rest of the r/o looks like. Impossible any of them NQs
Likely qualifiers:
- pleasant midrange pop and it closes. It's basically the same as Snap, which was similarly received before the TikTok virality.
- A really nice draw for Portugal that should secure an already likely Q thanks to diasporia votes from Luxembourg. Needs more belting to really bring it home.
- Even under the worst vocals imaginable, Poland simply have too many allies in this semi to miss out on the final
Borderline qualifiers:
They're so lucky to be in the second half I swear. First half (or second semi) and they'd be DEDGE.
The R/O allows Raiven to make a strong impression as the best vocalist in the semi, and her good song is surrounded by insipid shit nobody cares about. Y'all need to believe. IT IS YOUR LACK OF BELIEF THAT WILL KILL HER, AND NOTHING ELSE
I don't really see how this gets a metric ton of votes, but I honestly feel there are too many songs below Azer on the totem pole for them to miss out here - but who knows
This draw is terrible for Serbia, and really brings out the flaws in Ramonda more. Visuals are more lasting if you're in the second half, and she just risks dying based on the audience's short term memory.
Before the draw I said Cyprus needed to dodge the first three spots in order to qualify, and lo and behold, they did not. This would be dead in a strong field. Semi 1 however, is not strong.
Unlikely qualifiers
- Going after Finland's....
much of something could benefit them, and it IS Moldova... but surely they'll NQ this year, right?
- This is a fairly okay draw on paper, but there hasn't been such a lack of hype for an Australian entry since Technocolour which everyone quasi-instantly identified as an NQ upon release. This one is heading towards the same path unless the staging is brilliant.
Dead on Arrival
The Witcher parts in Doomsday Blue are just... really abrasive, and I think they'll struggle to win enough people over right after Luktelk.
Bless Their Heart
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SF 2
Locks:
- Closers have to be absolutely hopeless to NQ, and this being put last telegraphs to me that NL might have a good act planned in Sweden
- Yeah absolutely zero way this NQs and I refuse to consider otherwise
- Yes ofc this is in you idiots.
Likely qualifiers:
- Sixth and before the very statically staged Denmark is definitely a lot better than most other slots in the first half for an uptempo banger. They were already likely in but a shock NQ appears to have been dodged
- This was always a High Risk, High Reward entry in my eyes, and the r/o did nothing to persuade me to think otherwise
- same principle as Poland in SF1. Ladaniva could be at risk under some semis but Armenia simply have too many allies in this one to be NQ
- is without question doing the worst out of the last five songs in the semi, (having a bad song with a terminally unlikeable lead has to account for something even though it
is Israel in 2024) but whatever the result, it'll never bad enough to get worse than tenth.
Borderline qualifiers
- I still don't see the vision with this strange, abrasive song. However, high betting odds have to account for something, and the songs further down the pecking order are less likely to receive high-mid points than a well-executed Greece.
-- Same as Greece, really, except they don't have a diasporia.
- The 10th slot in the final certainly feels like it's between Malta and Denmark, and Denmark's draw is a bit more favourable. Sand also just... sounds Eurovisiony, but whether it's in a good way or in a very dated, tinned way who can tell.
- I currently have her 11th, but I can definitely imagine a scenario where Sarah outsells Loop like she did at MESC, and leapfrogs over Saba into the finale. Opening the semi is not ideal however, so hopefully she has something memorable prepared to overcome the short term memory loss the audience suffers from.
Unlikely qualifiers.
- The weakest of the girlbops in this semi. It's already precarious to have three of them (Austria, Greece and Malta) make the final from the same semi. Georgia won't be a fourth.
Dead on arrival
- This is getting double digits in the semi thanks to Spain, but double digits won't be enough to reach a final.
- The vocals and song are giving Hozier, his face and draw are giving ET go home.
- the r/o is okay, but what really did Czechia in for me was adding a high note in the revamp when Aiko has already become synonymous with terminal vital capacity in my mind and that of many others. And she's on
before Slimane too, to add further insult to injury.
- falls fully within the Fairytale / World / Fall from the Shite wastescape of hopeless Albanian revamps that only Looren (and thankfully NOBODY ELSE) likes
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