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NSC Predictions Thread

Schlagerman1
sweden

Schlagerman1

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Here is my guess for the NSC 198 final:

1. ::rah
2. ::bel
3. ::luz
4. ::slf
5. ::kam
6. ::tuz
7. ::hyp
8. ::nbs
9. ::vyl
10. ::com
11. ::ous
12. ::doi
13. ::yap
14. ::sun
15. ::sol
16. ::fer
17. ::red
18. ::bif
19. ::ora
20. ::noi
21. ::tro
22. ::nal
23. ::ems
24. ::szk
25. ::bal
26. ::riy
27. ::ufe
28. ::blm

I think the top 2 will probably have quite a bit distance to the rest, but that it will be a really tight race. But who knows, I may probably have missed some song totally as usual. :lol:
 
Ewigkeit
turkey

Ewigkeit

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en un buen momento
Winner
 
anselm
yugoslavia

anselm

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Semi 1:

::grf Griffin Empire
::ems Emsfrynt
::hyp Hypjø
::zch Zechonia
::tan Tanoiro
::slf Kordavian Islands
::bel Belvist
::sol Solentoya
::nal Ic-Sa-Calli
::lac Lacrea
::che Cherniya
::beg Begonia


Semi 2:

::yap Yaponesia
::ora Orangualia
::ous Oussou Empire
::rah Rahasia-Diati
::svo Svobodnia
::tad Tamausia & Deltannor
::ros Roseland
::tch Tcher-Racoi
::mor Mormadorei
::sun Sundfør
::tro Trollheimr
 
Last edited:
anselm
yugoslavia

anselm

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anselm said:
Semi 1:

::grf Griffin Empire
::ems Emsfrynt
::hyp Hypjø
::zch Zechonia
::tan Tanoiro
::slf Kordavian Islands
::bel Belvist
::sol Solentoya
::nal Ic-Sa-Calli
::lac Lacrea
::che Cherniya
::beg Begonia


Semi 2:

::yap Yaponesia
::ora Orangualia
::ous Oussou Empire
::rah Rahasia-Diati
::svo Svobodnia
::tad Tamausia & Deltannor
::ros Roseland
::tch Tcher-Racoi
::mor Mormadorei
::sun Sundfør
::tro Trollheimr
Click to expand...
5/11 in both semis... maybe I should resort to random.org next time xexcuseme
 
Rmetr0
armenia

Rmetr0

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Not exactly a prediction, but a simulation!

While listening to semis, I made some notes on how, on my opinion, juries and televoters in real contest, such as ESC, could vote for each entry in semis. And based on these notes (which are simply some numerical coefficients), I simulated 28 (in first semi) and 27 (in second semi) sets of votes (regular ESC system).

So, here are the finalists I ended up with based on simulated juries and televotes 😏
And yes, my country is included too, and its result here has nothing to do with my expectations in NSC 😆
But still, interesting to see if they would resemble real NSC results in any way, or not 🙃
I just like simulations after all, just decided to share with y'all this time 😉


NSC 208 Semi-Finals Simulation

Semi-Final 1



* Out of jury's top-11, 8 entries qualified - all from 1st to 8th
* Thanks to televoters, their 14th, 17th and 21st qualified too
* Out of televote's top-11, 8 entries qualified - all from 1st to 9th, except 7th (which also came 12th overall)
* Thanks to juries, their 12th, 14th and 18th qualified too

Semi-Final 2



* Out of jury's top-11, 9 entries qualified - all except 7th (which also came 12th overall) and 10th
* Thanks to televoters, their 14th and 16th qualified too
* Out of televote's top-11, only 7 entries qualified - all from 1st to 4th and from 8th to 10th
* Thanks to juries, their 12th, 13th, 14th and 18th qualified too

​
Full Semi simulated results and Final simulation after NSC Final voting ddl x
 
Last edited:
Rmetr0
armenia

Rmetr0

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Rmetr0 said:
Not exactly a prediction, but a simulation!
Click to expand...
Soooooooo 6/11 in SF1 and 6/11 in SF2. Well, it seemed little better while watching results 😅😅

::kam came 2nd (8th by jury; 2nd by televote)
::eff came 3rd (1st by jury; 9th by televote)
::vyl came 6th (4th by jury; 14th by televote)
::luz came 7th (17th by jury; 3rd by televote)
::tan came 11th (21st by jury; 5th by televote)

Other ones, that qualified in NSC, but not in simulation: ::bel ::cal ::moi ::szk ::tyb
They are (non-respectively) 12th (7th by televote), 17th (with 0 from televote), 18th, 22nd and 24th (with less than 10 points from both jury, televote and overall 😅)

::ros came 2nd (3rd by jury, only 1 point away from 2nd and 1st; 8th by televote)
::ins came 3rd (2nd by jury; 9th by televote)
::riy came 5th (1st by jury; 14th by televote)
::bal came 8th (14th by jury; 3rd by televote)
::sak came 10th (8th by jury; 12th by televote)

Other ones, that qualified in NSC, but not in simulation: ::aim ::beg ::doi ::tro ::uto
They are (non-respectively) 15th (7th by televote), 18th, 19th (with only 2 points from jury), 22nd (only 4 points from televote) and 24th (with 0 points from jury and less than 10 points from televote 😅)
 
Rmetr0
armenia

Rmetr0

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NSC 208 Final Simulation

Jury vote



Televote (1-5/29)



Televote (6-10/29)



Televote (11-15/29)



Televote (16-20/29)



Televote (21-25/29)



Televote (26-28/29)



Televote (29/29)



​
 
Last edited:
Rmetr0
armenia

Rmetr0

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Rmetr0 said:
Full Final Results



Full Semi-Final 1 Results



Full Semi-Final 2 Results

Click to expand...
Sooooooo my late response here as well!

The simulation guessed the winner! xyaay

And the actual top-2 (::tch ::cyd) is the top-2 of televote!
Also guessed ::lac being high, but in the juries.
::slf are managed to go even higher.
::mor is on its place!
::sun has same place as in televote.
::kad and ::grf are actually little lower, but still very close!
::nbs is not that close to winning, but deserves to be higher IMO 😁
::cal is close to its place in juries and ::rah is on its televote place.
::doi is very close, but slightly higher.
::szk did unexpectedly well as for me tbh.
::tro is very close to its televote result.
::ser is lower than in both juries and televote, closer to the latter.
::svo is hitting the bull's eye in televote 😁
::kim is unexpectedly lower.
::beg - one more bull's eye in televote 😁
::bel - bull's eye in juries and pretty close overall.
::ora actually did better, no last place.
::bif is very close in juries.
::aim is way off in both juries and televote, but really close overall 😳
::moi turned out to be not THAT high 🤔
::uto ::tyb - well... in the bottom as well 😅
::per is much closer to the televote result, but still even lower... 😅
::com - 100% hit in televote 😅
::tad - 100% hit overall 😁
::ufe - not last in both simulation and my expectations, but... guess, it's nice to achieve that farewell rare 29th place 🙃
 
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