escYOUnited
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Please post any and all discussions regarding the contest itself, host country and city, organisation, rumours and other topics not related to any specific country's selection process.
EUROVISION 2022 - General Discussion Thread
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Nienor
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Because the state of emergency in Italy ends on March 31st and apparently before that they are not allowed to release any official ticket sales. But I read that they plan to release tickets first thing in April in one wave.
Nienor
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So we just need a duo with a ballad to win this year and the circle is complete
Mainshow
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I think it´s a very good idea to focus on "peace" and "unity" as a theme - of course, it shouldn´t turn into an "overdramatic portion of cheese" but honestly, I think it would be such a great idea to see Jamala performing "1944", maybe even getting Toto on board to perform "Insieme" (maybe with some former Italian ESC participants) or letting this year´s/former Eurovision participants perform a medley of winning entries such "Ein bisschen Frieden" or "Love Shine A Light".
These are no "refreshing" or "brand new" ideas since we got such performances before and honestly, some Eurovision editions have already relied on such themes, anyway.
These are no "refreshing" or "brand new" ideas since we got such performances before and honestly, some Eurovision editions have already relied on such themes, anyway.
Etanna
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I'm very relieved to hear that, Eurovision wouldn't be the same without your coverage! But is it going to be only you, though? Surely they will let at least one more person to come with you - you cannot be expected to do all the coverage by yourself
Sammy
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Italys odds dropped because they perform in the 9th spot. Seriously the odds are like a religious cult! Everyone who knows the basics of stats laughs his or her ass of if they hear statements like „spot x has a higher/ lower chance of winning than spot y“ #corrlationdoesnotequalcausation #thesampleistoosmalltomaketheseclaims
Etanna
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Yeah especially since the running order is determined by the producers who give the favourites better positions. Of course the songs in those positions then do better than the song in the second spot which had barely scraped through the semisItalys odds dropped because they perform in the 9th spot. Seriously the odds are like a religious cult! Everyone who knows the basics of stats laughs his or her ass of if they hear statements like „spot x has a higher/ lower chance of winning than spot y“ #corrlationdoesnotequalcausation #thesampleistoosmalltomaketheseclaims
ChiversLookDivine
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I was trying to find somewhere to post this the other day, but since we've started a discussion on betting odds again I figure this is as good a place as any. Eurovoix recently posted a link to a betting odds article from the 15th of March last year, we all know betting is about as accurate as a Czechian jury (especially 2 months from the contest) but I thought it was interesting to see just how wrong the bookmakers were this time last year!
https://eurovoix.com/2021/03/15/betting-odds-switzerland-favourite-malta-second-place/
Finished Lower than predicted
Finished Lower than predicted, NQ
Finished Higher than predicted
Finished Exactly as predicted
01) Switzerland – Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers – 19% | ACTUAL: 3rd
02) Malta – Destiny – Je Me Casse – 12% | ACTUAL: 7th
03) Bulgaria – Victoria – Growing Up Is Getting Old – 9% | ACTUAL: 11th
04) France – Barbara Pravi – Voilà – 7% | ACTUAL: 2nd
05) Italy – Måneskin – Zitti e buoni – 7% | ACTUAL: 1st
06) Sweden – Tusse – Voices – 6% | ACTUAL: 14th
07) Lithuania – The Roop – Discoteque – 5% | ACTUAL: 8th
08) Iceland – Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years – 4% | ACTUAL: 4th
09) Cyprus – Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo – 3% | ACTUAL: 16th
10) San Marino – Senhit – Adrenalina – 2% | ACTUAL: 22nd
11) Finland – Blind Channel – Dark Side – 2% | ACTUAL: 6th
12) Norway – TIX – Fallen Angel – 2% | ACTUAL: 18th
13) Russia – Manizha – Russian Woman – 2% | ACTUAL: 9th
14) Azerbaijan – Efendi – Mata Hari – 2% | ACTUAL: 20th
15) Moldova – Natalia Gordienko – Sugar – 2% | ACTUAL: 13th
16) Greece – Stefania – Last Dance – 2% | ACTUAL: 10th
17) Romania – Roxen – Amnesia – 1% | ACTUAL: 28th
18) Belgium – Hooverphonic – The Wrong Place – 1% | ACTUAL: 19th
19) Ukraine – Go_A – Shum – 1% | ACTUAL: 5th
20) Croatia – Albina – Tick-Tock – 1% | ACTUAL: 27th
21) United Kingdom – James Newman – Embers – 1% | ACTUAL: 26th
22) Australia – Montaigne – Technicolour – 1% | ACTUAL: 34th
23) Austria – Vincent Bueno – Amen – 1% | ACTUAL: 30th
24) Poland – Rafał – The Ride – 1% | ACTUAL: 33rd
25) The Netherlands – Jeangu Macrooy – Birth of a New Age – 1% | ACTUAL: 23rd
26) Georgia – Tornike Kipiani – You – 1% | ACTUAL: 38th
27) Portugal – The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side – 1% | ACTUAL: 12th
28) Latvia – Samanta Tina – The Moon Is Rising – 1% | ACTUAL: 39th
29) Ireland – Lesley Roy – Maps – 1% | ACTUAL: 37th
30) Denmark – Fyr & Flamme – Øve os på hinanden – <1% | ACTUAL: 29th
31) Israel – Eden Alene – Set Me Free – <1% | ACTUAL: 17th
32) Serbia – Hurricane – Loco Loco – <1% | ACTUAL: 15th
33) North Macedonia – Vasil – Here I Stand – <1% | ACTUAL: 35th
34) Germany – Jendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate – <1% | ACTUAL: 25th
35) Estonia – Uku Suviste – The Lucky One – <1% | ACTUAL: 31st
36) Czech Republic – Benny Cristo – Omaga – <1% | ACTUAL: 36th
37) Spain – Blas Cantó – Voy a quedarme – <1% | ACTUAL: 24th
38) Slovenia – Ana Soklič – Amen – <1% | ACTUAL: 32nd
39) Albania – Anxhela Peristeri – Karma – <1% | ACTUAL: 21st
Questions for this year are:
-What song, like Shum, is predicted to be Top 20 but will actually finish Top 5?
Konstrakta – In Corpore Sano or The Rasmus - Jezebel
-What song, like Love Is On My Side, will be predicted to NQ but then qualify and finish on the left-hand side?
Monika Liu – Sentimentai or Vladana – Breathe
-What song, like Amnesia or Tick-Tock, is currently predicted to be Top 20 but will fail to qualify altogether?
Marius Bear - Boys Do Cry (I like this song, don't hate me...)
01) Ukraine – Kalush Orchestra – Stefania – 33%
02) Italy – Mahmood & Blanco – 17%
03) Sweden – Cornelia Jakobs – Hold Me Closer – 8%
04) United Kingdom – Sam Ryder – Space Man – 4%
05) Greece - Amanda Tenfjord – Die Together – 4%
06) Poland – Ochamn – River – 3%
07) Norway – Subwoolfer – Give That Wolf a Banana – 3%
08) Netherlands – S10 – De Diepte – 2%
09) Spain – Chanel – SloMo – 2%
10) Australia – Sheldon Riley – Not The Same – 2%
11) France – Alvan & Ahez – Fulenn – 2%
12) Belgium – Jérémie Makiese – Miss You – 1%
13) Portugal – Maro – Saudade, saudade – 1%
14) Azerbaijan – Nadir Rustamli – TBA – 1%
15) Finland – The Rasmus – Jezebel – 1%
16) Switzerland – Marius Bear – Boys Do Cry – 1%
17) Armenia – Rosa Linn – TBA – 1%
18) San Marino – Achille Lauro – Stripper – 1%
19) Cyprus – Andromache – Ela – 1%
20) Serbia - Konstrakta – In Corpore Sano – 1%
21) Malta – Emma Muscat – Out of Sight – 1%
22) Estonia – Stefan – Hope – 1%
23) Austria – Lumix feat. Pia Maria – Halo – 1%
24) Latvia – Citi Zēni – Eat Your Salad – 1%
25) Germany – Malik Harris – Rockstars – 1%
26) Albania – Ronela Hajati – Sekret – 1%
27) Iceland – Sigga, Beta & Elin – Með hækkandi sól – 1%
28) Czech Republic – We Are Domi – Lights Off – <1%
29) Moldova – Zdob și Zdub and Frații Advahov – Trenulețul – <1%
30) Denmark – Reddi – The Show – <1%
31) Lithuania – Monika Liu – Sentimentai – <1%
32) Bulgaria – Intelligent Music Project – Intention – <1%
33) Croatia – Mia Dimšić – Guilty Pleasure – <1%
34) Montenegro – Vladana – Breathe – <1%
35) Romania – WRS – Llámame – <1%
36) Ireland – Brooke – That’s Rich – <1%
37) Georgia – Circus Mircus – Lock Me In – <1%
38) Israel – Michael Ben David – I.M – <1%
39) North Macedonia – Andrea – Circles – <1%
40) Slovenia – LPS – Disko – <1%
https://eurovoix.com/2021/03/15/betting-odds-switzerland-favourite-malta-second-place/
Finished Lower than predicted
Finished Lower than predicted, NQ
Finished Higher than predicted
Finished Exactly as predicted
01) Switzerland – Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers – 19% | ACTUAL: 3rd
02) Malta – Destiny – Je Me Casse – 12% | ACTUAL: 7th
03) Bulgaria – Victoria – Growing Up Is Getting Old – 9% | ACTUAL: 11th
04) France – Barbara Pravi – Voilà – 7% | ACTUAL: 2nd
05) Italy – Måneskin – Zitti e buoni – 7% | ACTUAL: 1st
06) Sweden – Tusse – Voices – 6% | ACTUAL: 14th
07) Lithuania – The Roop – Discoteque – 5% | ACTUAL: 8th
08) Iceland – Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years – 4% | ACTUAL: 4th
09) Cyprus – Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo – 3% | ACTUAL: 16th
10) San Marino – Senhit – Adrenalina – 2% | ACTUAL: 22nd
11) Finland – Blind Channel – Dark Side – 2% | ACTUAL: 6th
12) Norway – TIX – Fallen Angel – 2% | ACTUAL: 18th
13) Russia – Manizha – Russian Woman – 2% | ACTUAL: 9th
14) Azerbaijan – Efendi – Mata Hari – 2% | ACTUAL: 20th
15) Moldova – Natalia Gordienko – Sugar – 2% | ACTUAL: 13th
16) Greece – Stefania – Last Dance – 2% | ACTUAL: 10th
17) Romania – Roxen – Amnesia – 1% | ACTUAL: 28th
18) Belgium – Hooverphonic – The Wrong Place – 1% | ACTUAL: 19th
19) Ukraine – Go_A – Shum – 1% | ACTUAL: 5th
20) Croatia – Albina – Tick-Tock – 1% | ACTUAL: 27th
21) United Kingdom – James Newman – Embers – 1% | ACTUAL: 26th
22) Australia – Montaigne – Technicolour – 1% | ACTUAL: 34th
23) Austria – Vincent Bueno – Amen – 1% | ACTUAL: 30th
24) Poland – Rafał – The Ride – 1% | ACTUAL: 33rd
25) The Netherlands – Jeangu Macrooy – Birth of a New Age – 1% | ACTUAL: 23rd
26) Georgia – Tornike Kipiani – You – 1% | ACTUAL: 38th
27) Portugal – The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side – 1% | ACTUAL: 12th
28) Latvia – Samanta Tina – The Moon Is Rising – 1% | ACTUAL: 39th
29) Ireland – Lesley Roy – Maps – 1% | ACTUAL: 37th
30) Denmark – Fyr & Flamme – Øve os på hinanden – <1% | ACTUAL: 29th
31) Israel – Eden Alene – Set Me Free – <1% | ACTUAL: 17th
32) Serbia – Hurricane – Loco Loco – <1% | ACTUAL: 15th
33) North Macedonia – Vasil – Here I Stand – <1% | ACTUAL: 35th
34) Germany – Jendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate – <1% | ACTUAL: 25th
35) Estonia – Uku Suviste – The Lucky One – <1% | ACTUAL: 31st
36) Czech Republic – Benny Cristo – Omaga – <1% | ACTUAL: 36th
37) Spain – Blas Cantó – Voy a quedarme – <1% | ACTUAL: 24th
38) Slovenia – Ana Soklič – Amen – <1% | ACTUAL: 32nd
39) Albania – Anxhela Peristeri – Karma – <1% | ACTUAL: 21st
Questions for this year are:
-What song, like Shum, is predicted to be Top 20 but will actually finish Top 5?
Konstrakta – In Corpore Sano or The Rasmus - Jezebel
-What song, like Love Is On My Side, will be predicted to NQ but then qualify and finish on the left-hand side?
Monika Liu – Sentimentai or Vladana – Breathe
-What song, like Amnesia or Tick-Tock, is currently predicted to be Top 20 but will fail to qualify altogether?
Marius Bear - Boys Do Cry (I like this song, don't hate me...)
01) Ukraine – Kalush Orchestra – Stefania – 33%
02) Italy – Mahmood & Blanco – 17%
03) Sweden – Cornelia Jakobs – Hold Me Closer – 8%
04) United Kingdom – Sam Ryder – Space Man – 4%
05) Greece - Amanda Tenfjord – Die Together – 4%
06) Poland – Ochamn – River – 3%
07) Norway – Subwoolfer – Give That Wolf a Banana – 3%
08) Netherlands – S10 – De Diepte – 2%
09) Spain – Chanel – SloMo – 2%
10) Australia – Sheldon Riley – Not The Same – 2%
11) France – Alvan & Ahez – Fulenn – 2%
12) Belgium – Jérémie Makiese – Miss You – 1%
13) Portugal – Maro – Saudade, saudade – 1%
14) Azerbaijan – Nadir Rustamli – TBA – 1%
15) Finland – The Rasmus – Jezebel – 1%
16) Switzerland – Marius Bear – Boys Do Cry – 1%
17) Armenia – Rosa Linn – TBA – 1%
18) San Marino – Achille Lauro – Stripper – 1%
19) Cyprus – Andromache – Ela – 1%
20) Serbia - Konstrakta – In Corpore Sano – 1%
21) Malta – Emma Muscat – Out of Sight – 1%
22) Estonia – Stefan – Hope – 1%
23) Austria – Lumix feat. Pia Maria – Halo – 1%
24) Latvia – Citi Zēni – Eat Your Salad – 1%
25) Germany – Malik Harris – Rockstars – 1%
26) Albania – Ronela Hajati – Sekret – 1%
27) Iceland – Sigga, Beta & Elin – Með hækkandi sól – 1%
28) Czech Republic – We Are Domi – Lights Off – <1%
29) Moldova – Zdob și Zdub and Frații Advahov – Trenulețul – <1%
30) Denmark – Reddi – The Show – <1%
31) Lithuania – Monika Liu – Sentimentai – <1%
32) Bulgaria – Intelligent Music Project – Intention – <1%
33) Croatia – Mia Dimšić – Guilty Pleasure – <1%
34) Montenegro – Vladana – Breathe – <1%
35) Romania – WRS – Llámame – <1%
36) Ireland – Brooke – That’s Rich – <1%
37) Georgia – Circus Mircus – Lock Me In – <1%
38) Israel – Michael Ben David – I.M – <1%
39) North Macedonia – Andrea – Circles – <1%
40) Slovenia – LPS – Disko – <1%
And didn't win a male/female duo from a country beginning with "A" in 2011
So we just need a duo with a ballad to win this year and the circle is complete
The closest thing we have is Brividi, though, will that work?
harey
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But the thing is: when a song is at 10th position of betting odd doesn't mean that it is predicted to finish at the 10th position in the contest but it is the tenth song people see winning. Because it is not at all the same thing to guess if a song will win or if it will be tenth: there are a lot of song we can see being top 10 but not winning (for example because not enough "jury friendly").
Edit: I'm surprised to see Australia so high in current odds because I don't feel any hype around it?
I think you described well what I am concerned about: I don't know what type of 'peace' content they will prepare.
Not that I completely despise having peace to be the key theme, but I can see a possibility of the show turning into a bigger version of Europe Shine a Light, which IIRC received lukewarm-to-mixed feedback. Combined with some melancholic undertones in the entries this year, the contest might turn out a bit more emotional/gloomier than supposedly festive.
Is it a bad thing if the season turns more emotional? Well, it will depend on each person: there are audiences who enjoyed getting these important reminders that the world needs unity and peace, there are also the opposite.
Zeus
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10th isn't that high.
And yeah, can't see it winning too, but he is a great vocalist and brings emotion with him. Juries will go big for it, televoters might be a problem.
nudiecrudi
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Italy s odds dropped only 1%Italys odds dropped because they perform in the 9th spot. Seriously the odds are like a religious cult! Everyone who knows the basics of stats laughs his or her ass of if they hear statements like „spot x has a higher/ lower chance of winning than spot y“ #corrlationdoesnotequalcausation #thesampleistoosmalltomaketheseclaims
From 18 to 17.
I think the cause is the rising of Ukraine s odds not the running order which is neutral for Italy.
The notice that Ukraine is going to partecipate live or live on tape enforces its leadership.
Guys Ukraine will get 38 twelve points deserved, by the televote.
More the Sound of Beauty will be the Sound of Peace
Just a quick update and this applies to basically every ESC dedicated website, smaller ones were completely rejected
Etanna
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I'm really disappointed by this, I cannot imagine why the EBU thinks this is a good move. Eurovision would be nothing without the dedicated fans.
I can't imagine the experience will be as enjoyable for you either if you're going to be there just by yourself. Maybe you could team up with some other accredited fan websites to do the coverage together?
Jonkonfui
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We can meet there.
Keep in mind that the first round of rehearsals are closed to all press so there will be no live coverage on those days. We will still have Live Streams and while I will never discourage you from watching other content, I will be there for Live Coverage and so will be our online team .
.
spinachpie
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Argh, this is so sad! I can see it from their point of view in that maybe there aren't enough positions for everyone, and they want more 'reach', so will try to get bigger influencers/media outlets in the press centre.
I don't like it, but I can understand it to a degree.
If you guys aren't allowed there, then it will be a huge disappointment as I love your coverage on there, and as the letter says, these generic media outlets, will talk a lot of rubbish mostly and have no idea about previous entries, artist backgrounds etc.
P.S. I love WiwiBloggs and everything they do
spinachpie
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So... I replied to the wrong post