ESC United Mod Team
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Estonia ESTONIA 2024 - 5miinust & Puuluup - (nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi
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BernadetteCydonia
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Come on now, if Daniel wins, he'll be eaten up so easily by Slimane in terms of the ballad vote competition. Double so if Ryk wins in Germany. Or might even NQ because idk if anyone at this point cares.
Ollie or 5MIINUST&Puuluup winning would really be a gear shift for Estonia, seeing as they haven't sent a 'proper' rock song since 2003, and never a hiphop song, let alone the kind mixed with another genre. Most of the rest of the final feels like the stuff they would usually send based on what they already sent (except "Bad Boy" and "Serotoniin", reluctantly including "Korra veel" on the already-sent-pile only because of "Verona" and that one's 80s sound), and that's why it seems 'un-Eurovision-like' to send something like "(nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi", unless you have watched the past few Eurovisions and do realize that wait a minute, televote LOVES stuff like this, so why WOULDN'T it be sent. Rock music meanwhile is a flip-flop and can do well depending on the presentation, or not do as well despite sounding still solidly made (Finland 2022?). But still. Estonia hasn't sent that stuff at all or in a long while. Daniel or Ewert would really be more of the general sameness unfortunately. So I don't see why is "Over the Moon"'s Eesti Laul victory so clear again?
Ollie or 5MIINUST&Puuluup winning would really be a gear shift for Estonia, seeing as they haven't sent a 'proper' rock song since 2003, and never a hiphop song, let alone the kind mixed with another genre. Most of the rest of the final feels like the stuff they would usually send based on what they already sent (except "Bad Boy" and "Serotoniin", reluctantly including "Korra veel" on the already-sent-pile only because of "Verona" and that one's 80s sound), and that's why it seems 'un-Eurovision-like' to send something like "(nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi", unless you have watched the past few Eurovisions and do realize that wait a minute, televote LOVES stuff like this, so why WOULDN'T it be sent. Rock music meanwhile is a flip-flop and can do well depending on the presentation, or not do as well despite sounding still solidly made (Finland 2022?). But still. Estonia hasn't sent that stuff at all or in a long while. Daniel or Ewert would really be more of the general sameness unfortunately. So I don't see why is "Over the Moon"'s Eesti Laul victory so clear again?
henhu
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Odds for 5 Miinust x Puuluup are as low as 1.15 in some bookies... Even Elina Nechayeva was not as big favorite.
I think it is over. I wonder if they also get like 70% of votes in the superfinal.
Also, in real life I have heard 90% people praising 5 Miinust and 10% Brother Apollo. Nobody who I know cares about Ollie...
I think it is over. I wonder if they also get like 70% of votes in the superfinal.
Also, in real life I have heard 90% people praising 5 Miinust and 10% Brother Apollo. Nobody who I know cares about Ollie...
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laululind
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My family prefers Ollie this time around. And the amount of online love & feedback I've seen about Ollie does lead me to believe he'll do pretty well this year too. We got lots of "everyone I know likes Ollie!" last year, but Alika still won in the end. At the very least I'm expecting a third place for him, if Daniel manages to sneak ahead. Brother Apollo I've not seen a single online mention about, but that's another "haven't seen them live" situation, so they could do OK if their performance is good. I do think Ollie will still do better tho'.
I can agree that if 5Miinust get to the superfinal, they might have it in the bag.. but that's still a bit of an IF. This time around it might actually be good to have some rando wiwibloggers in the jury who might like this sort of stuff better & go with the hype. If we get a bunch of serious music professionals from America again, I can certainly imagine them going "WTF is this noisy mess" and putting 5Miinust last. I think the risk of us getting our second "jury killed the televote favorite" situation this year is pretty high. But I do hope I'm wrong and they do better than expected. Would rather the televoters get to pick, especially if it's a landslide for 5Miinust but the jury scuppers their chances. Another case where proportional voting would be useful. If it's a very close run then at least it wouldn't feel as unfair.. but imagine 5Miinust getting 70% of votes in round 1 and not even getting into the superfinal. If that happens, I really hope they consider proportional voting for next year. But I guess we shall have to wait and see. Watch 5Miinust win the jury vote now.. with how random those international juries tend to be in EL, I wouldn't even be too shocked.
And the amount of online love & feedback I've seen about Ollie does lead me to believe he'll do pretty well this year too. We got lots of "everyone I know likes Ollie!" last year, but Alika still won in the end. At the very least I'm expecting a third place for him, if Daniel manages to sneak ahead. Brother Apollo I've not seen a single online mention about, but that's another "haven't seen them live" situation, so they could do OK if their performance is good. I do think Ollie will still do better tho'.I can agree that if 5Miinust get to the superfinal, they might have it in the bag.. but that's still a bit of an IF.
This time around it might actually be good to have some rando wiwibloggers in the jury who might like this sort of stuff better & go with the hype. If we get a bunch of serious music professionals from America again, I can certainly imagine them going "WTF is this noisy mess" and putting 5Miinust last. I think the risk of us getting our second "jury killed the televote favorite" situation this year is pretty high. But I do hope I'm wrong and they do better than expected. Would rather the televoters get to pick, especially if it's a landslide for 5Miinust but the jury scuppers their chances. Another case where proportional voting would be useful. If it's a very close run then at least it wouldn't feel as unfair.. but imagine 5Miinust getting 70% of votes in round 1 and not even getting into the superfinal. If that happens, I really hope they consider proportional voting for next year. But I guess we shall have to wait and see. Watch 5Miinust win the jury vote now.. with how random those international juries tend to be in EL, I wouldn't even be too shocked.
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BernadetteCydonia
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hehehehe what if the two rock songs in the final cancel each other out again
(I don't feel like they will. There's a high chance that the Brother Apollo guys will suck vocally and make just as messy of a performance, but unlike for 5MIINUST & Puuluup, they don't have that much of a fandom to justify everything, so they only nibble a bit of Ollie's points and die a death of a nobody artist.
But I don't know. There might be surprises waiting for us just around the corner. Hopefully.)
eerik
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Brother Apollo's lead singer Joseph was a runner-up in Finnish Idol a decade ago, they can't be that bad live. "Bad Boy" is their debut single (yet they are somehow already signed to Warner Music), so I think calling them dying nobodies is a bit harsh.
FilipFromSweden
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I just don't see how the juries are going to give 5 Miinust more than 2 or 3 points, so I have hope. Rooting hard for Ollie!
lasse braun
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he sells only old hats.
BernadetteCydonia
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Not necessarily nobodies in the music industry, but I don't know how immediately accepting will Estonians be of these guys, anyway
eerik
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Well, their lead is half-Estonian, he speaks Estonian, and his uncle is a rather legendary Estonian musician (and a bit less appreciated as a filmmaker), so they at least have that going for them. It was just 5 years ago when Estonian public voted a random Swede to represent us.Not necessarily nobodies in the music industry, but I don't know how immediately accepting will Estonians be of these guys, anyway
BernadetteCydonia
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Hah, touché. Although he had THE Stig Rästa going for him...
laululind
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I don't think the main problem for Brother Apollo will be not being Estonian or (possibly) bad vocals, it's just the song itself. I'm not sure it will have as much appeal as Ollie or Bedwetters last year. I'd think, if they were in contention to get a great result, there'd be at least some buzz around their entry online, but I've seen exactly none. I guess they might do better than expected if they bring great staging and awesome vocals, but I still think Ollie will get most of the rock votes (from televoters at least) and Brother Apollo will end up around 4th-6th place. But guess we shall see in due time.
In other news, second half of second semi for us! Nice to not be in the first half at least, a chance to avoid being stuck in slot 2 or 3 again. Now if only we could get 2nd half in the final as well.. presuming we make it there, obviously.
I'm not sure it will have as much appeal as Ollie or Bedwetters last year. I'd think, if they were in contention to get a great result, there'd be at least some buzz around their entry online, but I've seen exactly none. I guess they might do better than expected if they bring great staging and awesome vocals, but I still think Ollie will get most of the rock votes (from televoters at least) and Brother Apollo will end up around 4th-6th place. But guess we shall see in due time. In other news, second half of second semi for us! Nice to not be in the first half at least, a chance to avoid being stuck in slot 2 or 3 again.
Now if only we could get 2nd half in the final as well.. presuming we make it there, obviously.
henhu
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If Wingman got 10p from juries in 2021, I see no reason why juries would have them in bottom 3. But you never know of course... In a year like this with two big frontrunners, even 2p could be enough (assuming they win televoting). If my calculations are correct, Verona would have made it to the superfinal only with 1p from the juries
BernadetteCydonia
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I don't like that we weren't drawn in the same semi because I considered voting Estonia even if Ollie won... but I only have to wait for you to make it out alive from the currently "easiest" semifinal ever lol (so Estonia will qualify with ease then)
BernadetteCydonia
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The Eesti Laul draw is out!
I'm typing on the phone rn so I am only letting you know that before someone posts it, but:
BITCH.
I'm typing on the phone rn so I am only letting you know that before someone posts it, but:
But considering how weird some EL running orders have been, I'm fully expecting <...> the show to end with the slowest possible ballad, probably Nele Liis.
BITCH.
MopManMoss
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The drug song ninth oh we eating good today
laululind
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Uh, ERR, honey.. I wasn't actually making a suggestion! There must be a die-hard ballad fan working in ERR, making those running orders! Trying their absolute best to give them a push of some sort. No idea why else they'd have this obsession with ending their shows with such low-energy tepid entries. Guys, there's a 30 minute pause after the first half anyway, there's no need to give the audience an extended pee-break to get their phones out. Oh well, at least we have 5Miinust near the end too, otherwise the last half of the final would be a snore!
I guess 4-6 and 9 will be the ones people will watch out for. Daniel and Uudo back to back is a strange choice too. Anyway, not expecting the running order to make much of a difference in regards to results. Main question is what the juries will do & who the three superfinalists will be. End result will largely depend on that I think.
There must be a die-hard ballad fan working in ERR, making those running orders! Trying their absolute best to give them a push of some sort. No idea why else they'd have this obsession with ending their shows with such low-energy tepid entries. Guys, there's a 30 minute pause after the first half anyway, there's no need to give the audience an extended pee-break to get their phones out. Oh well, at least we have 5Miinust near the end too, otherwise the last half of the final would be a snore!I guess 4-6 and 9 will be the ones people will watch out for.
Daniel and Uudo back to back is a strange choice too. Anyway, not expecting the running order to make much of a difference in regards to results. Main question is what the juries will do & who the three superfinalists will be. End result will largely depend on that I think.
BernadetteCydonia
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After yet another Sanremo season exhausts me to death, I might as well switch to finally becoming a stan of another country... for a year until they make a disappointing song winning. Estonia just happened to click for me since having them as my winners in 2022, and if the drug song wins, I'm hoping I'll be accepted into the Estonia standom with open arms, because my God I'm going to be insufferable about this. UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU YEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA~