ESC 2018 Betting Odds

[4815162342]

The odds probably aren't as accurate at this point but completely discarding them is wrong too - they can give us a general idea of how successful certain countries might be. The exact placings are hard to predict now, without seeing proper live performances/staging, but if you look at what the odds were looking like this time last year, you'll see most of the countries that were placed high in the odds eventually finished in the top 10 - the bookies were wrong about Serbia/Armenia and they missed couple of countries like Moldova and Hungary. France was close to top 10 in the end so not a big miss from the bookies.

Are you sure this is a screen of the market when all songs were already chosen??

 

[nofuxCZ]

Are you sure this is a screen of the market when all songs were already chosen??

This was a screen someone posted on here 9th March 2017

 

[Jacketh]

I imagine there are a lot of people who bet on Bulgaria at 7.00 without hearing the song feeling a bit underwhelmed right now! Not that it can't win, I'm more optimistic for it than most.

Personally still going for La Forza. I have some money on Belgium though, they will ace the staging I reckon and you'll see them become a contender in the rehearsals. The dark horse for sure.

I'm not sure about that screenshot above but it is a myth that Portugal was not a contender before the rehearsals. They were. Italy, Bulgaria, Belgium and Portugal were the countries people were talking about. Just Italy was such a strong favourite and Portugal was still at about 12.00-15.00 before rehearsals IIRC. It felt like Italy was in a league of its own before rehearsals last year, remember? But Portugal was still in for a good shout and plenty of people saw the potential for it win.

 

[4815162342]

This was a screen someone posted on here 9th March 2017

Wouldn't that mean Russia, Bulgaria, Serbia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Sweden were not chosen/published yet?

 

[midnightsun]

Bet on a few countries this morning: Estonia, Norway, Bulgaria, Belgium and - just for fun - on UK.

 

[4815162342]

Bet on a few countries this morning: Estonia, Norway, Bulgaria, Belgium and - just for fun - on UK.

I hope your bet on UK was for 'Last place in the final'

 

[ZoboCamel]

Pretty sure that screenshot above from last year was mine. And I don't think Bulgaria, Serbia etc. had released their songs at that point. But yeah, apart from those few, that's pretty much how the odds looked immediately following the last song release last year.

Portugal generally sat between about 14 and 24 for most of the season (from memory I got a bet in at around 18, though later laid it off when it got shorter after rehearsals )

As far as my own bets this year go, I haven't been doing all that well in the win market - I put in a bunch on various countries that have since lengthened (Sweden @18, Armenia @100, Hungary @600). Estonia @15 has been a bit nicer to me though (I since sold off at 8 but am considering buying back), as have the top-10 and qualification markets.

Obviously, though, a lot can change in the coming weeks and months... I regretted my 20/1 bet on Ukraine 2016 when they lengthened to 80 later, but then they won in the end anyway

 

[4815162342]

this years betfair market after all songs have been chosen (lets see how things will play out)
I hope the picture is not too big.

 

[ZoboCamel]

Whoa, that's a nice book you've got going on there. What'd you do, a large back-and-lay on Israel or Czech Republic or something?

 

[4815162342]

I was backing a lot of Italy after the song came out and odds went to 100. And I had a "huge" lay on Spain around 17-20. Other than that, a lot of small bets and some not so good decisions. I wasn't satisfied with my book, so I made a payout before the bulgarian song came out.
After bulgarian song was published I had a back to lay on them (backing at 20 and laying it off at 11).

I am not so good in predicting the market. Take Norway for example. It gets backed at 28 at the moment which to me is a big joke. I can see Rybak sliding into the Top 10, but winning with this song? No way. And i don't get why gamblers would back him so heavily.

 

[Realest]

Some good Odds if Someone plans to place a bet:

not to qualify 3.2
not to qualify 2.0
to qualify 2.0
not to qualify 2.55 (this is very likely imo)
into Top10 3.5
into Top10 3
into Top4 4.5

 

[4815162342]

for me more likely not to qualify than to qualify
could have a strong juryvote

 

[4815162342]

So who are the most likeliest Top 10 candidates according to the market? I decided to rank the Top 10 betfair odds. (I am taking the higher number between avaiable odds and last matched in order to take drifts into account. Not perfect, but maybe more accurate than only considering avaiable odds)

1. Israel 1,36
2. Sweden 1,48
3. Estonia 1,67
4. Belgium 1,68
5. Norway 1,77
6. Czech Republic 1,81
7. Australia 1,85
8. Greece 1,93
9. Bulgaria 1,96
10. France 2,16
11. Spain 2,30
12. The Netherlands 2,32
13. Italy 3,10
14. Ukraine 3,55
15. Portugal 3,60
16. Armenia 3,65
17. Russia 3,85
18. Germany 4
18. Azerbaijan 4
20. Austria 4,10
21. Finland 4,20
22. Belarus 5
23. Cyprus 7,20
24. Denmark 7,60
25. Latvia 10
26. Lithuania 11
27. Moldova 13,50
28. Hungary 13,50
29. United Kingdom 13,50
30. Poland 16
31. FYR Macedonia 17,50
32. Romania 22
33. Malta 26
34. Switzerland 34
35. Croatia 42
36. Serbia 46
37. Albania 60
37. Ireland 60
39. Georgia 65
40. Slovenia 100
40. San Marino 100
40. Iceland 100
43. Montenegro 110

Chance-wise, the biggest gap is between The Netherlands and Italy. You could say the market in the moment has 12 clear favourites for the Top 10.
Some Top 10 odds are extremely high. I don't think I have ever seen so many countries with odds above 20 for Top 10. A bit weird if you consider many people are saying it is an open year.

 

[midnightsun]

https://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/winner

I can see most of the top 10 winning. Not sure about Czech Republic, Belgium and Sweden.

Because it's an open year, the tops will change later. Though I think Israel, Estonia and Bulgaria will stay somewhere in the top 5.

 

[Schlagerman1]

Ehm...This Sam Eaton who apperently is a editor for Oddschecker seems to have a little knowledge about Czech Republic in Eurovision or Europe. In this article, where he has noted down the best bets to be made for the contest, he writes this about Czech Republic.

"The Czechs hold a pretty dismal Eurovision record, but that could be set to change due to their entrant this year in Mikolas Josef.
Their song entry Lie to Me’, has everything you need to conquer Eurovision - a former model singer, catchy lyrics and trumpets!
Czech Republic's entry is a far cry from last year’s Portuguese winner, but should poll well in the neighbouring countries, and the Scandinavian nations.
Historically, the former Soviet nation get the majority of their votes from countries located near their border, for obvious political reasons.
A lot will depend on the semi-finals but plenty are expected to qualify for this year's finale.
Czech Republic could have been backed at a massive 66/1 earlier in the year, that value has well and truly gone, but with the hype surrounding Israel’s entrant that means there’s still 9/1 available.
The song has already racked up 1.5million YouTube plays, still lagging behind the 6.5million plays for Israel’s entrant, but expect that gap to shorten following the semi-finals."

Like okay..firstly, Czech Republic have never had much help from neighbours, but maybe this is the year.
And no, Czech Republic is not a soviet nation, ever heard of Czechoslovakia you dumb piece of... And what political reasons!?! What are you talking about?!
Well, sure Czech Republic is among the faves, but we are talking about a country that never has been better than 25th in Eurovision before and with a song that could very well be a hit or miss. I hope it qualifies, but they are in maybe the toughest semifinals I've seen in recent years and with a bad draw and a too weird performance, it might miss the mark on many viewers or juries...

And Sam Eaton, whoever you are...better learn some ESC and the countries history before writing something like this. Just cause you like a song (and I do like it too) doesn't mean it is a sure bet...

 

[DanielLuis]

Will those people shut up with the political reasons already? It might still have a little influence on the results but the winner clearly needs to have something more than political support.

He does't seem very bright anyway, advising people to back Azerbaijan and Cyprus for the win as well. Or he might be actually, let the people who follow his advice throw away their money to the bookies, that may be his intent

And saying this when speaking about Azerbaijan "The majority of countries that are expected to vote for them are again expected to qualify for the final. In addition, their song is annoyingly catchy and makes them worth a bet at 70/1."
Does the idiot not know that everyone votes on the final anyway? Jesus, Oddschecker should be ashamed to have him giving opinions on Eurovision betting.

 

[LalehForWD]

[MENTION=4395]Schlagerman1[/MENTION] is marking words a bit. It isn't difficult to understand what this Sam Eaton meant. Besides, I'd say the difference between being a Soviet satellite state and being one of Union Republics were a fine line. Oddly enough they seem eager to achieve this relation once again today.