2024 Winner predictions

[nudiecrudi]

The poll at eurovisionworld is eerily accurate, at least for the Top 2 of each. They missed the winner only in 2016 by a small margin.

Here is how it stands right now:

1st
2nd
3rd
4th (that's crazy but ok)
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Portugal
Belgium
Norway
Lithuania
Spain

Armenia
Austria
Sweden
Azerbaijan
UK (ok that's shocking to me)

Finland
Slovenia
Estonia
Poland
Denmark

Cyprus
Luxembourg
Germany
Ireland
Iceland

Albania
Malta
Latvia
Australia
Czechia

San Marino
Moldova

That poll will change, or not, after the live performances. 4 from top5 ranked have only videoclips.
It is too early. Georgia top 5 shows it.

 

[hpp0]

From those that are high on the odds and I believe have realistic chances to win:

It is my favourite, so I know it in my heart it isn't winning. I see a finish around 6th - 8th for now, but hopefully they can pull it off during the shows and go for a top 5 finish.

Could see it happening if the differences between the tele and jury top 3 are big (similar to 2019).

It's a very solid entry overall. If the uptempo favourites underperform, I can see it standing out and getting top 3 in televoting. Accompanied with a ~6th place in jury, it could be enough for victory.

The jury will probably reward this and if it clicks with the audience, it could get a 2021-esque result. Not a winner though, imo.

Even if it's high on the odds, it sort of feels like a dark horse for some reason. I get the vibe that it's going to score high in tele and if the juries reward it, it could be the winner, yeah.

If they pull off a good performance, it could do a 2021. I'm not sure if it will be enough for victory, but top 5 could be within reach.

I personally see a low top 10 at best. The jury result won't be too high, for the known reasons and I don't see it being in the televoting top 3. Maybe 5th at most.

So overal, , and seem like winners to me for now.

 

[LakZaNokte]

Curious to know, why does every1 here think we can’t win?
I am asking that as a REALLY long-term member of this community and even longer esc fan.

Previous years, when esc-fandom worthy countries (a.k.a. western Europe) would sit in 1st place in odds after all songs revealed, it was all “ah yes, they are winning etc”.
This year, no.
“The year is open”.
And nobody knows why are the bookies calling it. It’s a mistery wrapped in a puzzle.

At this point I am struggling to find this in non-offensive way.
Because, let’s face it, there is a reason why half of eastern Europe pulled out of esc.

So, if anyone cares to elaborate, please do.

 

[gigi_copp3]

Curious to know, why does every1 here think we can’t win?
I am asking that as a REALLY long-term member of this community and even longer esc fan.

Previous years, when esc-fandom worthy countries (a.k.a. western Europe) would sit in 1st place in odds after all songs revealed, it was all “ah yes, they are winning etc”.
This year, no.
“The year is open”.
And nobody knows why are the bookies calling it. It’s a mistery wrapped in a puzzle.

At this point I am struggling to find this in non-offensive way.
Because, let’s face it, there is a reason why half of eastern Europe pulled out of esc.

So, if anyone cares to elaborate, please do.

I absolutely love Rim Tim Tagi Dim and Baby Lasagna, but I recognize that he's not that good vocally. He has a shot at winning, but he needs to improve his perfomance and to make it memorable

 

[Ezio]

Curious to know, why does every1 here think we can’t win?
I am asking that as a REALLY long-term member of this community and even longer esc fan.

Previous years, when esc-fandom worthy countries (a.k.a. western Europe) would sit in 1st place in odds after all songs revealed, it was all “ah yes, they are winning etc”.
This year, no.
“The year is open”.
And nobody knows why are the bookies calling it. It’s a mistery wrapped in a puzzle.

At this point I am struggling to find this in non-offensive way.
Because, let’s face it, there is a reason why half of eastern Europe pulled out of esc.

So, if anyone cares to elaborate, please do.

I don't think anyone wants to dim Croatia's moment. It would be way more exciting and interesting than Netherlands or France winning.

However, objectively speaking, Croatia's lead in the odds is quite slim so anything can and will happen. Last year Sweden had a 30% winning chance and Finland 20%. Croatia is well below 20% at this point and lots of countries have at least 2%. Way more than last year. The odds margin differences are very small for like 20 countries or so.

So why is Croatia first? Testosterone, cute guy, wild song, a clever song even. Cleverer than Cha Cha Cha. However, the jury is going to vote it down, they did it to Shum, Maneskin and Käärijää. They will do it to Baby Lasagna.

Secondly, the live performance was a mess and notes were botched a lot. Not good.

And in a year when so many countries turn up the volume and go all out, Croatia doesn't have a single selling proposition at all. It's not unique enough. I'm sorry. For me it's most likely that a gentle ballad wins this year. 14% winning chances mean that the non-winning chances are 86%.

Last year it was frustrating to know the winner already in February. This year that's not the case.

All the best though.

 

[rasmuslights]

Curious to know, why does every1 here think we can’t win?
I am asking that as a REALLY long-term member of this community and even longer esc fan.

Previous years, when esc-fandom worthy countries (a.k.a. western Europe) would sit in 1st place in odds after all songs revealed, it was all “ah yes, they are winning etc”.
This year, no.
“The year is open”.
And nobody knows why are the bookies calling it. It’s a mistery wrapped in a puzzle.

At this point I am struggling to find this in non-offensive way.
Because, let’s face it, there is a reason why half of eastern Europe pulled out of esc.

So, if anyone cares to elaborate, please do.

Well, I'm Slovene. We will give this 12 points but already in Slovenia, opinions are divided. I know none of my close friends are going to like this and half of the comments on RTV page are saying it's a copy of Cha Cha Cha. And if Cha Cha Cha couldn't win in a weaker year with less competition (baby has to compete with Joost, Windows and 5miinust), I can't see how this would win.

If we compare this to Joost - he's trending on global music videos on YouTube (#38) and you can't tell me this is only the Netherlands being hyped about their entry. He was also in the top 50 Spotify in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Croatia failed to chart in those countries. And Joost has 12 points on lock from Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium and probably even Luxembourg. He'll also probably do better in Scandi and Baltic countries. Croatia has Serbia and Slovenia, that's it. 5miinust also has Finland and other Baltic states so he won't do as good there as well. Cyprus, Armenia, Albania, Georgia are giving their 12 points to Greece. France to Armenia. The Netherlands to Belgium. Poland, Moldova, Czech Republic are going to support Ukraine. Ireland, the UK, Latvia are going to support Lithuania. Like I can't see this song getting more than 6 12s (Slovenia, Serbia and then idk honestly) from the televote, so how could this win?

So the landslide clearly won't be as strong as cha cha cha's even if he wins the televote, which I doubt anyway. I also can't see how this would do a top 5 result in the jury vote, which would be needed for his win. There's no way this is finishing above Italy, France, Sweden, Ukraine, Belgium, Portugal, Serbia, the UK, Switzerland... in the jury vote. Like he can finish max. 6 and even that is a stretch in my eyes. So 2nd place televote and max. 6th place jury vote, unfortunately, doesn't result in a win but max. 2nd place since Italy and Ukraine will probably get top 5 in both.

And now to more subjective opinion. I just don't get the song or the hype. Like the production is dated, the visuals are dated, and the vocals are not there. Like I just don't get how this could win, especially in a year with so many strong songs.

 

[rasmuslights]

I don't think anyone wants to dim Croatia's moment. It would be way more exciting and interesting than Netherlands or France winning.

However, objectively speaking, Croatia's lead in the odds is quite slim so anything can and will happen. Last year Sweden had a 30% winning chance and Finland 20%. Croatia is well below 20% at this point and lots of countries have at least 2%. Way more than last year. The odds margin differences are very small for like 20 countries or so.

So why is Croatia first? Testosterone, cute guy, wild song, a clever song even. Cleverer than Cha Cha Cha. However, the jury is going to vote it down, they did it to Shum, Maneskin and Käärijää. They will do it to Baby Lasagna.

Secondly, the live performance was a mess and notes were botched a lot. Not good.

And in a year when so many countries turn up the volume and go all out, Croatia doesn't have a single selling proposition at all. It's not unique enough. I'm sorry. For me it's most likely that a gentle ballad wins this year. 14% winning chances mean that the non-winning chances are 86%.

Last year it was frustrating to know the winner already in February. This year that's not the case.

All the best though.

Oh year I forgot to mention that people hate when someone is repeating what another country did better last year. Now I'm not saying that it's the same song cause it isn't but many locals, especially in Scandinavia, will think that.

And again it's just not that good to win. I think people just love the story of an underdog winning and his thing about not being selected into Dora.

And also about the odds. As said Croatia is 3 % above Ukraine, 6 % above Italy, 7 % above Switzerland. These small percentages mean nothing at this point, not to mention the fact that odds at this stage are easily manipulated by locals and we know Croatians can be very nationalistic, and the fact that they reflect the people's will while forgetting the juries exist.

 

[ESC94]

As I already mentioned I´m absolutely clueless about this year. But for some reason I have the feeling that some songs we´re expecting to rock the televote won´t do as well because they´ll only do well in certain parts of Europe, for example. I can see Joost getting good points (not necessarily though) in , , and as well as in Scandinavia, but I already read quite a few times here and there that this style of music was never that popular in Southern or Eastern Europe, so I could see these countries giving him fewer points in the televote.

Guess we have to wait and see what happens in Malmö, this is one of the most open races for the ESC crown in a very long time and I like that.

 

[elysian03]

The poll at eurovisionworld is eerily accurate, at least for the Top 2 of each. They missed the winner only in 2016 by a small margin.

Here is how it stands right now:

1st
2nd
3rd
4th (that's crazy but ok)
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Portugal
Belgium
Norway
Lithuania
Spain

Armenia
Austria
Sweden
Azerbaijan
UK (ok that's shocking to me)

Finland
Slovenia
Estonia
Poland
Denmark

Cyprus
Luxembourg
Germany
Ireland
Iceland

Albania
Malta
Latvia
Australia
Czechia

San Marino
Moldova

Yes, the poll is usually accurate, but only right before the finale.
In March it's totally unreliable since nobody has seen how the live performances will be.
I'm not taking this poll seriously till we have at least some information from the rehearsals. xD

 

[MAD20]

I think the only songs giving me strong winner vibes are and in that order. The three of them have strong potential to score well in both juries and televote and take the victory. I don't know if I'd add to this list though, but of course I'm always keen on new countries taking their first victory and they do have a chance if and only if the performance is superb.

 

[ESC Athens]

I'll try to do a prediction as well, but I'm happy to discuss any objections.
I'll use odds ranking.

This will probably win the televote. I don't get the hype personally but it seems that people like it. However, juries will treat it bad. It could have a similar fate to 2019 (although they are very different songs), topping televote and not even being in the juries top 10. It may end 4th-6th, but if Baby Lasagna manages to pull off a decent performance with good vocals it could do better. For now, I am somewhat reluctant to consider this a winner.

It'll get a high televote score, partly due to political reasons. I'll personally be disappointed if this wins, I don't think this is winner material and without the extra war support it would probably not be a contender. I'm pretty sure this won't top either jury or televote. It could only be a compromise winner, but I think it's unlikely.

Its fate will depend on live performance and staging. It has to stand out from other similar songs. In any case, this will probably be in both jury and televote top 5. It could win, but with a small margin from the runner up.

Again, staging will determine its fate. Juries will appreciate it, especially if Nemo manages to perform it well. However, people may get a bit confused by this. I don't think it's a huge televote magnet, but it has the potential to do well (top 5). If it wins jury vote, it could win as well.

Well, it's a strange song. You have to listen to it a few times before getting used to it. With a good staging, and if Croatia underperforms, it can win the televote. I'm not sure about juries, but I don't think this is the kind of entries they appreciate. I wouldn't rule this out though. It's for sure that it could win the European election though, and Ursula von der Leyen is probably a fan of this.

We need a good ballad, and this serves its purpose. Juries will certainly appreciate this and probably place it in their top 3. Not sure about televote though, it may flop. Top 10 material, but unlikely to reach top 3.

As much I would like to see my country winning, I can see it getting a top 5 result but not winning the whole contest. Juries may rate positively Marina's vocals and give it a top 10 result. Televote will depend heavily on the staging. The song is confusing when you listen to it for the first time, I was confused as well and I started liking it after giving it a few more listens. If the performance is as spectacular as they say (but Greece has said that a lot of times without delivering it), it could be a surprise and land within top 3. If the staging is meh, I can hurtfully see this flopping a lot.

I really don't know. It will probably advance to the finals, the song is strong and there isn't negative vote. It's obvious that it won't get the same support as 2022. Normally, juries would rate that high. Since juries' role is to stay objective and vote with no politics in mind, this has to get a top 7 result with them, but I'm not sure about that. Televote is unpredictable, but we have to take into account that the general public doesn't have so strong opinions on the situation in the Middle East. We'll see, but for now I can see it getting a top 5 result, but not winning.

This won't win. Top 10 possible, but that's it.

Juries will most likely love this, but televote-wise, this will share its points with . I can't see it getting very high, but a top 10 result is more than likely.

For me don't have a chance either.

 

[rasmuslights]

I'll try to do a prediction as well, but I'm happy to discuss any objections.
I'll use odds ranking.

This will probably win the televote. I don't get the hype personally but it seems that people like it. However, juries will treat it bad. It could have a similar fate to 2019 (although they are very different songs), topping televote and not even being in the juries top 10. It may end 4th-6th, but if Baby Lasagna manages to pull off a decent performance with good vocals it could do better. For now, I am somewhat reluctant to consider this a winner.

It'll get a high televote score, partly due to political reasons. I'll personally be disappointed if this wins, I don't think this is winner material and without the extra war support it would probably not be a contender. I'm pretty sure this won't top either jury or televote. It could only be a compromise winner, but I think it's unlikely.

Its fate will depend on live performance and staging. It has to stand out from other similar songs. In any case, this will probably be in both jury and televote top 5. It could win, but with a small margin from the runner up.

Again, staging will determine its fate. Juries will appreciate it, especially if Nemo manages to perform it well. However, people may get a bit confused by this. I don't think it's a huge televote magnet, but it has the potential to do well (top 5). If it wins jury vote, it could win as well.

Well, it's a strange song. You have to listen to it a few times before getting used to it. With a good staging, and if Croatia underperforms, it can win the televote. I'm not sure about juries, but I don't think this is the kind of entries they appreciate. I wouldn't rule this out though. It's for sure that it could win the European election though, and Ursula von der Leyen is probably a fan of this.

We need a good ballad, and this serves its purpose. Juries will certainly appreciate this and probably place it in their top 3. Not sure about televote though, it may flop. Top 10 material, but unlikely to reach top 3.

As much I would like to see my country winning, I can see it getting a top 5 result but not winning the whole contest. Juries may rate positively Marina's vocals and give it a top 10 result. Televote will depend heavily on the staging. The song is confusing when you listen to it for the first time, I was confused as well and I started liking it after giving it a few more listens. If the performance is as spectacular as they say (but Greece has said that a lot of times without delivering it), it could be a surprise and land within top 3. If the staging is meh, I can hurtfully see this flopping a lot.

I really don't know. It will probably advance to the finals, the song is strong and there isn't negative vote. It's obvious that it won't get the same support as 2022. Normally, juries would rate that high. Since juries' role is to stay objective and vote with no politics in mind, this has to get a top 7 result with them, but I'm not sure about that. Televote is unpredictable, but we have to take into account that the general public doesn't have so strong opinions on the situation in the Middle East. We'll see, but for now I can see it getting a top 5 result, but not winning.

This won't win. Top 10 possible, but that's it.

Juries will most likely love this, but televote-wise, this will share its points with . I can't see it getting very high, but a top 10 result is more than likely.

For me don't have a chance either.

So in the end no one wins

 

[ESC Athens]

So in the end no one wins

Well, I also realised that I'm not predicting a winner, lol. Let's say that any of could win, but no one can win both televote and jury.

 

[Ezio]

Well, I also realised that I'm not predicting a winner, lol. Let's say that any of could win, but no one can win both televote and jury.

You forgot to mention Greece

 

[ESC Athens]

You forgot to mention Greece

I prefer not to get too excited for my own country and get surprised in a good way if things go so well

 

[Citelis]

I cannot imagine any possible scenario, no matter how good it will be on stage, in which juries will place Greece higher than 6th - 7th.

 

[Ezio]

I prefer not to get too excited for my own country and get surprised in a good way if things go so well

You should come to teach that in the Austria thread. Every year!

 

[elysian03]

I prefer not to get too excited for my own country and get surprised in a good way if things go so well

I feel you. I love my country's song, but I doubt we will get enough points to take it all. Either because some juries will not appreciate the experimental part or will have an issue with Nemo being non-binary.

And I really fear the public will be overwhelmed by the first listen. I'm still hoping a great staging could overcome this obstacle, but I just don't want to raise my hopes too much.

 

[hawadharma]

has winner vibes all over

rock ✔
middle eastern vibe ✔
sing along ✔
quirkyness ✔
televote ✔
country never won esc ✔

 

[Loindici]

TBH I'm getting more and more confused each and every day because everyone can win this year basically