2024 Winner predictions

[rasmuslights]

To me:



and maybe

 

[henhu]

I feel like it is wide open. Televoters and jury will probably vote really differentely.
For now: (remember there is no anti-voting, they will get massive televoting regardless the song)

 

[rasmuslights]

I feel like it is wide open. Televoters and jury will probably vote really differentely.
For now: (remember there is no anti-voting, they will get massive televoting regardless the song)

Israel will get blanked by AT LEAST half of the juries. It'll be really hard for them to win. But yeah the televote will award them.

This is reason number 173026732013602 why we need the juries. The televote can easily be manipulated by lots of things.

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

None of Italy, Sweden or Ukraine have clicked with me. Can we please have a first time winner or someone who hasn't won in many years?

 

[LakZaNokte]

None of Italy, Sweden or Ukraine have clicked with me. Can we please have a first time winner or someone who hasn't won in many years?

 

[lasse braun]

for the moment:

 

[0scar]

At the moment I can see literally no country winning the whole thing
errr

with a great performance I can see this getting enough jury points and televoting points to be a compromise winner a la Netherlands 2019
same as Switzerland I guess but it doesn't give winner vibes to me
with jury support a la Austria 2018 and the televoting being too scattered to make an impact? But I cannot see them gather enough televoting points though
with a massive televoting score and juries too scared to blank them if the song is ok-ish? But probably not high enough jury score
??? why is this so high in the odds. It's a fine song but it's not a huge televoting magnet imo and my guess will be lower top 10 in the juries

not enough televoting points probably
not enough jury points probably + somewhat in the same televoting pool as Croatia, Switzerland

lock for a top 10 finish but isn't going to win

All others are out, Portugal and Sweden based on their NF as well. The only country that can still surprise is (and maybe ?)

 

[MopManMoss]

For the first time in a long time I have asolutely no idea and that excites the hell out of me

 

[SirPeterGriffin]

So far no undeniable frontrunner which makes this year super exciting. Going on a limb and predict . High energy song, resonating and unifying lyrics and an emotional edge on top of it. The juries are the biggest mountain to climb but it's not like there is a pre-determined favourite for them (e.g. Sweden last year) to "manipulate" the results.

 

[Realest]

Its still since Day One and nothing has changed.

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

I think can garner enough jury and televote support to win. Interest in the fan bubble has faded a bit since other entries were released, but I reckon when we see the staging people will pay attention to it as a winner again.

Looking at a few of the other 'favourites' I see problems with all and find it hard to visualise them winning.
The dress rehearsals will be VERY interesting. Maybe a dark horse will come out and take it?

- I've never seen this as a winning song. Strong jury vote, maybe a top 10 televote if it's lucky.
- not convinced this will make an instant impression with televoters and also, I think the vocals and staging will be hard to pull off. Could get jury support but this sounds like a really hard song to sing? Could do brilliantly or flop completely.
- good song with televote appeal but jury will kill it sadly.
- needs an upgrade in performance to win the televote, and I'm not seeing the jury support for this? Personally I feel it's a weaker entry than Kaarija and will not landslide the televote or come 4th with juries like he did. Probably a top 5.
- will come top 10 or maybe top 5. I think it will do better in juries than televote.
- really unsure on this one. I could see a respectable televote and jury vote for it, but would it really be enough to win?

Re - they will qualify and then come mid table in the final.
BTW - I think people are sleeping on a bit, and I hope I'm not biased - it doesn't have a hope in hell of winning, but it could come top 15 or even top 10

 

[BorisBubbles]

There's only six countries that can win, and they are , , , , and

And some of these are really big stretches. under the assumpting they get EVERYTHING right. under the assumption Marko's inexperience doesn't catch up with him under the assumption they could get jury votes and aren't some hopeless fanwank.

, and are the natural winners, ie: what could win if none of the others improve their game. Italy and Ukraine have good songs that are easy to stage, and Norway have an appealing packages that will stand out.

I would be VERY surprised if the winner was not one of these six.

 

[Loindici]

So far, I don't have a clear picture of who's gonna win. I have a few countries in my mind, classified into three groups:

Current Big Favorites	Lots of Potentials	Possible Underdogs
-The current most potential winner. Might not get the most jury or televote but the combination could be enough for them. - Baby Lasagna said they're improving the performance, and he would supposedly rehearse too. A podium finish is possible. - Joost has THAT televote song. Not sure if the juries would support this, though, I can only hope. - As much as I see a possible winner, they're taking so much risk here I cannot predict any outcome. It could be a big win or a big loss.	- This is a big step up from Greece and if the performance clicks I could see this winning. - The song's really unique but I don't know how strong its actual appeal is to the jury or the televote. - A natural big contender, but as Italy didn't send a man this time, I think this could fare worse than usual. - I mean, if the juries didn't vibe with anything else, they would go with their default pick.	- Yes, you see me. A left side could be possible with the right staging, but with the other factors on click, maybe a podium wouldn't be so far. - Grito's impact on me reminds me of Amar Pelos Dois. If iolanda can build a good hype bubble around her entry and revise some aspects of her staging, nothing is impossible. - I'm sorry, I'm still on the "Raiven victory" ship. - As Mustii said BTPO was performance-focused, I'm intrigued. It could be so beautiful.

 

[Paco Roca]

First stage:

Politic contenders:

70% 30%

Catchy Song contenders:

70 % 30 %

Emotional contenders:

51% 49%

No scheme song contenders:

100%

Jury Smack & Bloc Vote contenders:

100%

Second stage:

Round 1:

(politic vote + diaspora) vs (catchy song + politic message + catchy-lovers vote + Nordic Bloc Vote) = 2-4

Winner:

Round 2:

(poignant song + teathrical staging) vs (ballad-lovers vote + best voice) = 2-2

Winners: &

Round 3:

(woman power symbol + original song (catchy & poignant) + teathrical staging + italian language + italian-lovers fanbase) vs (jury smack + bloc vote) = 5-2

Winner:

Third stage:

60% vs 40%

70% vs 30%

Face to Face stage:

Public vote (3⁰-4⁰) / Jury vote (2⁰-3⁰)

Public vote (1⁰) - Jury vote (8⁰-10⁰)

Winner:

Public reaction: "Käärijää 2 - the vengeance":

"Jooooost"... "Euro PA PA PA!" ...

 

[empo21]

Nothing really stands out which is exciting for the results, but also the average level of songs this year is so underwhelming. I dislike only 2 songs, but more than half the current entries are technically good but I could not care less about them.

If Croatia can ride the hype, I'll be fine, but otherwise just have Italy win tbh.

 

[Lilian]

 

[elysian03]

I just love this year's Eurovision. It's so exciting that there isn't a big favourite to win. It will all come down to the live performances.
Once rehearsal starts, the odds will surely change a lot. I love it!

 

[aef]

I think can garner enough jury and televote support to win. Interest in the fan bubble has faded a bit since other entries were released, but I reckon when we see the staging people will pay attention to it as a winner again.

Looking at a few of the other 'favourites' I see problems with all and find it hard to visualise them winning.
The dress rehearsals will be VERY interesting. Maybe a dark horse will come out and take it?

- I've never seen this as a winning song. Strong jury vote, maybe a top 10 televote if it's lucky.
- not convinced this will make an instant impression with televoters and also, I think the vocals and staging will be hard to pull off. Could get jury support but this sounds like a really hard song to sing? Could do brilliantly or flop completely.
- good song with televote appeal but jury will kill it sadly.
- needs an upgrade in performance to win the televote, and I'm not seeing the jury support for this? Personally I feel it's a weaker entry than Kaarija and will not landslide the televote or come 4th with juries like he did. Probably a top 5.
- will come top 10 or maybe top 5. I think it will do better in juries than televote.
- really unsure on this one. I could see a respectable televote and jury vote for it, but would it really be enough to win?

Re - they will qualify and then come mid table in the final.
BTW - I think people are sleeping on a bit, and I hope I'm not biased - it doesn't have a hope in hell of winning, but it could come top 15 or even top 10

I feel like you are wrong with many predictions tbh. nowhere near top 3, maybe too 15 at best. is a very likely NQ, in any case no chance for top 10 haha. You’re underestimating in my opinion. Talking about , not for a second did. I see the huge appeal this song is having for so many fans? Well anyway, maybe they will have a televoting result between 150-200 again but why on earth should juries vote for this song? They can reach low to medium top 10 but not top 3.


My additional predictions:
- won’t have as much televoting impact as initially expected, it will be overshadowed by . They might have around 200 points at best, but not 300. Juries will kill it anyway.

- Maybe 250-300 points in televoting but also not enough support from kuries.

- I see as the most likely winner. She has a potential of up to 250 points with juries and 200 points with televoters. This could be enough in a year with no clear frontrunner. is the only song with enough potential with both juries AND televoters!

- maybe up to 150/200 televoting points but not much more than 100 jury points.

 

[ESC Athens]

This year is so open that we can predict 10 possible winners and an 11th one will win

 

[Funix]

Winner candidates (i do agree with odds):

- En mass winner vibes right now, but all is up to staging and vocals (eg. can he deliver his story to the voters on the night?). This is a new Conchita Wurst moment if done right.
Right now: Combined winner

- Really catchy song with a strong vocalist. But can it translate to ESC well or will it come boredom itself without the Sanremo setup?
Right now: Runner up

- "Rim Tim Tagi Dim" says it all. The song its really effective on a song level, but will it be too crazy for the jurors and maybe the televoters? I can see this song fall though with a messy stageshow (eg. a similar show to Dora)
Right now: 3-4rd place. Small televote winner with a very low amount of jury points

- Not impressed by their Vidbir performance. It was nice but the atmosphere was not just right?
Right now: 3-4rd place

(After this you will have a bunch of songs that will complete a nice top 10, that are nearly impossible to guess this year)

Now to the "fun" part; "Fan faveourites" songs that will flop at ESC-final due to staging and vocals:

- Falls apart on stage because of the missing music video vibe (I will be really surprised if they can pull off)

- Halo event (Vocaaaaaaals)

- Just a mess that will not translate well on stage, sorry

"Fan faveourites" that don't will make the cut to the final:





EDIT: Will add Norway to winner candidates