My guess at this point was Denmark. All the artists that gave me winner vibes (Monique, CHAKRAS, Dotter) lost their NFs. The ballads this year were all along a similar line, all moody and of high quality, and would have shared votes (plus we had such a song win the previous year). The quirky faves Lithuania, Iceland and Russia would have taken attention off of each other, and none of them felt like winners. The strong uptempo songs we had again this year never felt like winners either. That leaves us with an Azerbaijan 2011 situation, and Denmark was that song of 2020. Duet, reasonably inoffensive, cute enough. I think it could have won. Sadly we'll never know.
I don't see Iceland, Russia or Lithuania getting enough support from the juries to win, so I'm gonna say Bulgaria if everything went right for it. The most open year in a long time, although it has been close in the past years as well, this year felt wide-open. Especially because I don't think I'm entirely wrong in my claim that the juries wouldn't support Iceland, Russia, and Lithuania that much that it would allow them to win
I can only see and maybe winning the Televote.
I can imagine gaining Momentum during the Rehearsals and how the whole Audience sings along which might translate into both, Jury and Televotes.
would be a Dream, but I cant see them getting more than 100-150 Televotes.
should be Top5-10 with both Groups, but not enough to win.
is a possible Jurywinner and Televote should be good for Standards (maybe 50-100 Points).
should also do well with both, but I cant see them winning.
Overall I would say:
06-10 in random Order
To be more precise, if I had to think intensely about it:
3rd place Switzerland - it’s too similar to Arcade in style of composition/genre plus different things are hard to grab for the audience, like language, meaning of the lyrics, very high male voices are not for everyone. Still a high quality song that will gain a lot of votes.
2nd place Malta - it’s the most harmless, radio friendly, contemporary song in the bunch of the faster tracks. To stick with comparisons, it’s like Switzerland 2019. High up in the ranking but in the end too generic to win. Bonus points for being from Malta and her voice/age relation.
1st place Bulgaria - because, apart from the song, bonus points for coming from an inoffensive country so safe to choose for both Western and Eastern juries, it has never won the contest, televotes gained because of Billie Eilish comparisons, it’s the Salvador Dobral 2017 just female. Dreamy staging, dreamy song, sweet dreamy girl... hello Ireland 1970. All kinds of everything in this song reminds me of you!
Lithuania and Iceland would not win. Iceland is too special and Lithuania is a contender for the ungrateful 4th place. It’s too sleek. Everyone loves it but it’s that kind of song you won’t vote for in the end because you give it all for your absolute fav!
That is a hard question. I think though that the first three would have been
1. Denmark (is quite an earworm)
I doubt about Russia. Wouldn't have had much votes from the Juries. And Bulgaria wouldn't have had much votes from the televoters. As for Switzerland - with the Juries probably yes, but I am not sure about the televoters actually.
EDIT: OMG. I completely forgot about Italy. HOW could have happened that? I think Italy could have been a dark horse. So:
I doubt that we would have seen Switzerland winning, even if it was good in the odds. Having two times in a row win a ballad sung by a "hurt young man" would have surprised me a lot.
But honestly I couldn't tell as this year I didn't feel winner vibes with any of the entries. In my opinion this is by far the weakest edition ever. My hopes were on the stagings to elevate the one song to be a winner.