Who will win?

[GRE]

Ok lets see
1)Which songs are favorites right now?
Azerbaijan,San Marino,Norway,Austria,Netherlands,Ukraine,Denmark,Sweden,United Kingdom.

2)We leave out countries that recently won,so we have only
San Marino,Austria,Netherlands,Denmark,United Kingdom.

3)We leave out San Marino due to financial reasons.

4)We keep only the entries that could be loved both by televoters and juries
Denmark,Austria,United Kingdom.

5)Denmark its the most fresh & catchy of them,and will win.

 

[Narmina]

will win this year

 

[Trece]

2)We leave out countries that recently won,so we have only

Ukraine won... 9 years ago I wouldn't say that its recently

 

[Synergise]

I think Ukraine will win.

 

[GermanBango]

very hard to predict a winner this year!
One thing is sure, the voting is going to be closer then ever (maybe another 2003)
I think , and will do very well with the televotes!
and will do very well with the jurys!
I guess some of them will win but who knows

 

[eerik]

Another very undeserving and crappy winner... so I'd say

 

[VikingTiger]

I think it will be very hard for any of the "big ballads" to win this year. Ukraine, Moldova, Russia and Georgia all will get a good share of the votes - but since they all are sung by female singers with good vocals (male/female duet from Georgia), and they all belong to the same "block" - I think it will be difficult for any one of them to get enough points to win the whole contest. There are also other good ballads this year; Israel is another "grand ballad" but in hebrew. Then you have the two songs in italian (even thoug SM ends up less ballad), the more quiet ballads from Estonia and Cyprus.
I think both the juries and the televoters will spread their "ballad votes" on more entries than ever before.

 

[Nicholas123]

I have a strange feeling that Ukraine will win this year, though i hope it will be Denmark or Norway.

 

[A-lister]

I do not see any resemble to Rybak's song?! Denmark is annoying and repetitive. It will probably qualify and end up around 20th place there.
But I agree on what'cha say about Russia although it is so over-the-top that it could be interesting for 'neutrals' also (at least more than Denmark ).

I found Norway also a bit annoying and repetitive... actually I do think Denmark's entry is this year's "Rybak"... maybe the chances of winning aren't as big and it doesn't have the same "wow" factor but still.

I can't think of any person with decency voting for the Russian wannabe American cheese...

And just the fact that people think is a contender of winning makes me wonder if we all heard the same entries? It's bland and forgettable, not winning material what-so-ever

 

[SRBIJA]

Denmark, Italy, and Germnay are biggest contenders IMO.

 

[ParadiseES]

I think these are the contenders. Russia, Georgia and Azerbaijan will do well, but I don't think any of them can win. Also, there is a chance that Georgia or Azerbaijan could get forgotten between stronger songs. Russia will be 5th-6th because of neighbours and jury.

Ukraine has little chances. I see Zlata's song as Eastern countries' wank, but not in the other side of Europe, so I see a Mika Newton result for Ukraine, but maybe a bit better because Zlata's voice will appeal the juries everywhere and this year is weaker than 2011.

The Netherlands and Italy will be first and second with the juries, but I don't think they will get enough support from the televoting, especially Netherlands. On the other hand, Italy has slim chances to win, but in my opinion it's not the strongest contender with this song.

Germany is a big ? for me. "Glorious" sounds like a televoting winner + Cascada is well known all around Europe. But I don't know if the juries are going to support this. Can't help remembering Blue when I think of Cascada, don't know...

So only Norway is left. Margaret is very charismatic, her performance is flawless and will most surely have the Scandinavian block in her favour. Norway seems the only one that can make televoting and jury to agree, so I'd bet on them.


PS- As I previously said, Denmark is just fans' fave and will not appeal to European televoting and juries. UK doesn't have a strong song to win, at all. And San Marino could do quite well, but I don't think Queen Valentina winning is realistic.

 

[doctormalisimo]

Gonna throw this out there: Israel

It gives off so many Molvita vibes, and if she nails her performance and vocals, she'll top the jury vote.

 

[VikingTiger]

I think these are the contenders. Russia, Georgia and Azerbaijan will do well, but I don't think any of them can win. Also, there is a chance that Georgia or Azerbaijan could get forgotten between stronger songs. Russia will be 5th-6th because of neighbours and jury.

Ukraine has little chances. I see Zlata's song as Eastern countries' wank, but not in the other side of Europe, so I see a Mika Newton result for Ukraine, but maybe a bit better because Zlata's voice will appeal the juries everywhere and this year is weaker than 2011.

The Netherlands and Italy will be first and second with the juries, but I don't think they will get enough support from the televoting, especially Netherlands. On the other hand, Italy has slim chances to win, but in my opinion it's not the strongest contender with this song.

Germany is a big ? for me. "Glorious" sounds like a televoting winner + Cascada is well known all around Europe. But I don't know if the juries are going to support this. Can't help remembering Blue when I think of Cascada, don't know...

So only Norway is left. Margaret is very charismatic, her performance is flawless and will most surely have the Scandinavian block in her favour. Norway seems the only one that can make televoting and jury to agree, so I'd bet on them.


PS- As I previously said, Denmark is just fans' fave and will not appeal to European televoting and juries. UK doesn't have a strong song to win, at all. And San Marino could do quite well, but I don't think Queen Valentina winning is realistic.

I think you REALLY did a very good analisis! I agree on almost anything you say. The only couple of things I would not agree on, is that I think that Anouk actually CAN get a quite good result amongst the televoters. And I think Ukraine might even beat Russia.

I do agree with you on your final conclusion. I think Norway has a very good chance - especially because of Margaret's stage personality and the fact that the song stands out the most (amongst the favourites).

 

[Sabrewulf238]

I feel there are six main contenders:



and three outside chances, countries that I feel could surprise. Particularly I feel like Montenegro could turn out to be an extreme dark horse if the performance is spot on. That's just the vibe I'm getting. Montenegro is my "are you serious!?" for this year.



I really can't see any other country apart from those I listed winning it. Also I feel like Denmark is being severely overrated. So I wouldn't say it's anywhere near a sure thing that it will be Denmark.

There are other countries I think will do very well (ie top ten or top five even) but I can't see them actually winning so they're not included here.

 

[CrimTV]

I feel there are six main contenders:



and three outside chances, countries that I feel could surprise. Particularly I feel like Montenegro could turn out to be an extreme dark horse if the performance is spot on.



I really can't see any other country apart from those I listed winning it. Also I feel like Denmark is being severely overrated. So I wouldn't say it's anywhere near a sure thing that it will be Denmark.

There are other countries I think will do very well (ie top ten or top five even) but I can't see them actually winning so they're not included here.

I really like Montenegro's song but do you seriously see it winning? I don't think Sweden will win again because people may not vote for simply for the reason that they won last year and Italy's song (no offence) is extremely boring. Out of the 6 countries you listed only Norway and Denmark have chance because I don't think Germany will get enough jury votes to win

 

[Trece]

You really think that will high?
I think it even can don't pass to the final. You can like song after few listenings, but from first. Moreover 1st semi is very Eastern and East will support each other as usually. And even if will qualify, i don't see televoters-support for it at all

 

[Sabrewulf238]

I really like Montenegro's song but do you seriously see it winning? I don't think Sweden will win again because people may not vote for simply for the reason that they won last year and Italy's song (no offence) is extremely boring. Out of the 6 countries you listed only Norway and Denmark have chance because I don't think Germany will get enough jury votes to win

I honestly can see it winning, but as I said only an outside chance (a kind of you'd never see it coming kind of thing).....but it's very much dependent on the performance.

Igranka is pretty far away from the type of music I usually like and yet I almost instantly loved it and remembered it. That counts for something in my eyes.

With this new voting system I feel like we could have a shock winner this year actually.

In the final I would love to see something similar to what happened with the juries in melodifestivalen this year, with 12s going all over the place. That was extremely exciting to watch.

 

[JackBauer]

I'm still saying Norway will be way higher with the Juries than the televotes.


And the Netherlands, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Israel all look almost the same to me. Good ballads with a good voice but nothing allows me to say Russia or the Netherlands stands out from the others for example.

I really have a hard time to see juries or televoters to get massively behind one of them when they are all, more or less, good simple songs.

Am i the only one who can't see juries & televoters going all for Russia or Ukraine, etc but instead spreading the love for a lot of good ballads ?

The only slight advantage is Georgie being a duet.

 

[ParadiseES]

I think you REALLY did a very good analisis! I agree on almost anything you say. The only couple of things I would not agree on, is that I think that Anouk actually CAN get a quite good result amongst the televoters. And I think Ukraine might even beat Russia.

I do agree with you on your final conclusion. I think Norway has a very good chance - especially because of Margaret's stage personality and the fact that the song stands out the most (amongst the favourites).

Actually what I'm saying is that Ukraine will beat Russia, though both will be high

 

[VikingTiger]

The only slight advantage is Georgie being a duet.

...or Azerbaijan, having a male vocalist.