Who will qualify from Semifinal 1?

[midnightsun]

The global vote will have the power of a regular country

I know but there are at least 12, 10, 8 … 1 points to give and this could change the outcome. Not only 10th place, maybe the last two even.

 

[Decayingbooks]

Also, we still didn’t know about that mysterious global vote and how the world is gonna be involved.

From what I understoop people will have to register using their credit card number to be allowed to vote in the global pool, that's a lot of work for casual viewers and most likely who will actually end up voting are the eurofans that are already engaged in the contest, basically the global vote is the eurobubble vote and the most voted aren't that hard to predict:

Edit: I forgot to mention that it is also very likely that a big portion of the global vote will be from european countries that aren't competing, like Russia, Bulgaria, Belarus, Montenegro, Macedonia, Hungary, Turkey, Slovakia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Andorra and so on.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Originally I thought Malta could be the country to slip through in 10th but I think I have to put that idea to rest now that they've gotten the death slot. I think Latvia or Netherlands benefit from that though.

I'm thinking:



It seems like I fully agree with the poll for this semi. I went for Netherlands over Latvia because I feel like the running order gives them the edge.

 

[Synergise]

Here's my guess for points in Semi 1:

Country	Points	Highest score received
Sweden	182	(12) - Norway, Malta, Latvia, Israel, Netherlands, Finland, Rest-of-World
Finland	165	(12) - Ireland, Moldova, Sweden, Czechia, Germany
Norway	130	(10) - Israel, Sweden, Czechia, Finland, Italy
Serbia	111	(12) - Croatia, Switzerland
Israel	107	(12) - Azerbaijan
Czechia	78	(8) - Croatia, Moldova
Moldova	78	(12) - Portugal, Italy
Netherlands	76	(8) - Sweden
Croatia	52	(12) - Serbia
Portugal	50	(12) - France
Malta	39	(5) - Ireland, Azerbaijan
Latvia	14	(10) - Ireland
Switzerland	9	(4) - Germany
Azerbaijan	7	(4) - Moldova
Ireland	4	(3) - Malta

 

[FilipFromSweden]

I think Portugal is the slightly delusional fan favorite of the season (I say that with love, please don't come at me) and Azerbaijan will appeal to a lot of casual viewers

 

[goncalovieira]

I am pretty sure that Portugal will take easily the 12 points from France and Switzerland. The song is doing good with the diaspora and portuguese diaspora can be powerful.

 

[JSSArcos]

I am pretty sure that Portugal will take easily the 12 points from France and Switzerland. The song is doing good with the diaspora and portuguese diaspora can be powerful.

I wouldn't be so sure about the 12 points (when we have Loreen competing), But the top 3 seems certain to me. Our diaspora is really strong and they seem to love Mimicat; it has a lot of the style of our emigrants.

I think it could be one of the decisive factors for portugal qualification

 

[midnightsun]

I am pretty sure that Portugal will take easily the 12 points from France and Switzerland.

And Italy, right?

@Synergise Interesting and thoughtful ranking. But how come you think Italy will give its 12 points to Moldova?

 

[Synergise]

And Italy, right?

@Synergise Interesting and thoughtful ranking. But how come you think Italy will give its 12 points to Moldova?

I've been analysing televote/jury voting data from 2014 onwards and looking at how much "bias" each country has towards or against other countries. As an example, let's say a Czech entry has an average televote ranking of 6 in this semi, but Czechia comes 3rd in the Dutch televote - the Netherlands would therefore have a slight 'positive' bias towards Czechia. I've done this for semis/entries since 2014 and averaged out the results. It's a bit more complicated than that but that's the short version of what I've done.

In the case of the Italian televote, Italy actually has some of the largest positive 'bias' scores of any country. I'd say there are 5 countries with large positive values: Albania (incredibly strong), Romania (very strong), Ukraine (strong), Moldova (strong) and Poland (quite strong). Of these, only Moldova is competing in this semi. The next highest bias would be for Serbia, but it's considerably weaker than the bias towards Moldova.

Overall, Italy actually has a slightly negative bias towards Portugal and I actually only have Italy giving Mimicat 2 points...

If there's any other countries you want to know about (giving or receiving points), feel free to ask.

 

[Realest]

And Italy, right?

@Synergise Interesting and thoughtful ranking. But how come you think Italy will give its 12 points to Moldova?

Italys Televoting is the most prone for Diasporavoting with Switzerlands, so they always have the same Countries ( in their Top4), so is pretty easy to predict here.

Btw. Italys Televote from 2012 when Pasha participated back then:

1. Romania – 28.32%
2. Albania – 12.92%
3. Moldova – 11.22%
4. Serbia – 7.39%
5. Russia – 5.23%
6. FYR Macedonia – 3.66%
7. Ukraine – 3.13%
8. Sweden – 3.12%
9. Turkey – 2.79%
10. Germany – 2.43%
11. Spain – 2.38%
12. Lithuania – 2.36%
13. Greece – 2.28%
14. Cyprus – 1.86%
15. Iceland – 1.74%
16. Bosnia & Herzegovina – 1.43%
17. Denmark – 1.25%
18. Malta – 1.25%
19. Ireland – 1.13%
20. Estonia – 1.05%
21. Azerbaijan – 0.68%
22. Hungary – 0.66%
23. France – 0.65%
24. Norway – 0.61%
25. United Kingdom – 0.46%

 

[MopManMoss]

The fact that Portugal is 11th in the betting odds is absolutely bizarre it’s easily qualifying

 

[Serena00]

The fact that Portugal is 11th in the betting odds is absolutely bizarre it’s easily qualifying

Yeah, I think Portugal is gonna qualify. Switzerland at 8th is bizarre too, I can't see them qualifying without jury votes.

 

[Kitakaze]

I do think everyone seems to be sleeping on Switzerland even if it is a televote-only semi this year. Yes, it’s not a quirky ethno-bop sung by a woman but there are going to be plenty of people outside of the fandom who will find it impressive, connect with it and find it more palatable than Croatia, Serbia, Latvia, even Portugal, etc., just like how Not The Same (Australia 2021), Proud (Macedonia 2019), Nobody But You (Austria 2018), Together (Ireland 2018) etc. all would have still qualified without juries too. I don’t think it’s any less likely to go through than any of the other bunch of borderline qualifiers and what with Sasha at the helm and Remo’s vocal, there just seems a lot more room for it to elevate than some of the others.

 

[KazNew]

I've done a bit of a voting simulation based on the songs and historical voting records:

Country	Points	12 Points from
01. Sweden	183	Finland, Germany, Ireland, Israel, Malta, Moldova, Netherlands
02. Finland	147	Latvia, Norway, Sweden, World
03. Israel	143	Azerbaijan, France
04. Norway	124
05. Moldova	107	Czechia, Italy, Portugal
06. Serbia	96	Croatia, Switzerland
07. Malta	66
08. Netherlands	47
09. Czechia	43

10. Portugal	42
11. Croatia	41	Serbia
12. Ireland	29
13. Azerbaijan	20
14. Switzerland	8
15. Latvia	6

This was done before the running order got announced - now I'd definitely be dropping Malta to that borderline group. I think that we will definitely still get a group of 4-5 songs who are all very tight around places 8-12.

 

[goncalovieira]

Does anybody know the power of the Portuguese diaspora when they truly enjoy a song?
12 points from France and Switzerland are pretty locked. Serbia could be a contender for taking the 12 from Switzerland, but the song is not that accessible.
In the final, the outcome will be different.

 

[12Pointsgoto.....]

The fact that Portugal is 11th in the betting odds is absolutely bizarre it’s easily qualifying

It is really strange and I have been saying this since the betting odds have come out, I always looked at Portugal as a sure qualifier.

 

[JenJen94]

It is really strange and I have been saying this since the betting odds have come out, I always looked at Portugal as a sure qualifier.

I agree with both of you! I absolutely love it and its something different....for sure qualifier

 

[Deleted member 12761]

I like the guys from Latvia but I have a feeling they're not going to qualify unfortunately. I've voted for (in no order):



are sure NQers imo. I'm not the biggest fan of the dutch song but I can see its appeal. In this year it's actually unique. It gives me "Calm before the storm" vibes.

 

[lasse braun]

 

[BorisBubbles]

Italys Televoting is the most prone for Diasporavoting with Switzerlands, so they always have the same Countries ( in their Top4), so is pretty easy to predict here.

Also, large romanian diasporia in Italy, who are prone to vote for Moldova if offered.

In terms of 12s, I think it'll go like this

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