Who will qualify from Semifinal 1?

[Iker]

I thought had some outside chance before the running order has been revealed but now there is like no hope for it. It would need some extra-level jury wank over it to Q and I don't see it.

 

[Iker]

Safe qualifiers:


Borderline


Definite Non-Qualifiers


My personal qualifiers:

No , yikes. Hopefullly Manizha will Q though, I can't stand Ana's song.

 

[mauve]

No , yikes. Hopefullly Manizha will Q though, I can't stand Ana's song.

This year, Ans song is also a huge disappointment for me. I loved "Voda" so much, but "Amen" is just cliché and meaningless. But I like even Russia's song less. I have no idea why it is hyped so much. I hope Russia will not qualify, but this semi is so hard to predict.

 

[ekzuu]

I thought had some outside chance before the running order has been revealed but now there is like no hope for it. It would need some extra-level jury wank over it to Q and I don't see it.

Yeah, it actually kinda screams NQ now that I think. We have had loads of female ballads before which only depend on vocals/stage presence and almost had none merit otherwise, and almost always pulled NQ. Juries don't ONLY go for vocals, if the song isn't competitive/good otherwise, we have seen that from the past. But it's still 50/50 I think, I wouldn't be surprised if it did qualify, maybe there is a market for this gospelly, Christian ballad, and all Christians of these countries unite, but perhaps it's also overestimated, the potential crowd for this song... Also the running order, competitiveness of this semi makes it hard for her to qualify.

 

[tkris]

So you don't think it matters which songs surround one entry? I'm pretty sure it makes a huge difference, because if right after one song goes a fan favorite, the song that was before is clearly going to be outshined. But if before and after go not-so-great songs, the song in between is going to be remembered as a good one, because it's a break from boredom, no matter how great the other entries are. It's a simple pshychology. There is no logic in me explaining anything.

No one votes for a song cause hey I liked it better than the one before it and the one after it. If that were the case songs no. 1 and last song of the semi would never qualify.

Yes , being surrounded by weaker songs helps a country to stand out. You'll give it a thought while deciding to vote , but you ultimately vote for the 2-3 songs you like best . So , I disagree with your all-or-none assessment of if you have two bad songs around you , you are at an advantage.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

How I think it'll go down:

STRONG
01. Malta
02. Lithuania
03. Cyprus
SOLID
04. Romania
05. Sweden
SAFE
06. Azerbaijan
07. Ukraine
BORDERLINE
08. Norway
09. Belgium
10. Ireland
11. Russia
12. Israel
13. Croatia
OUT
14. Slovenia
15. Australia
16. North Macedonia

I want the best for Australia but I feel like they're the country that's going to defy expectations and flop harder than expected.

I think Croatia is going to get lost in the shuffle. I still put them in borderline, but only just.

I'm kinda expecting Ireland to be moderately to positively supported by both the juries and public, I feel like it's a question of whether or not two 9ths or 10ths are going to turn into a qualification though. It might depend on how much the jury and public vote disagree with each other on other songs.

 

[tkris]

How I think it'll go down:

STRONG
01. Malta
02. Lithuania
03. Cyprus
SOLID
04. Romania
05. Sweden
SAFE
06. Azerbaijan
07. Ukraine
BORDERLINE
08. Norway
09. Belgium
10. Ireland
11. Russia
12. Israel
13. Croatia
OUT
14. Slovenia
15. Australia
16. North Macedonia

I want the best for Australia but I feel like they're the country that's going to defy expectations and flop harder than expected.

I think Croatia is going to get lost in the shuffle. I still put them in borderline, but only just.

I'm kinda expecting Ireland to be moderately to positively supported by both the juries and public, I feel like it's a question of whether or not two 9ths or 10ths are going to turn into a qualification though. It might depend on how much the jury and public vote disagree with each other on other songs.

Super accurate in terms of logic

 

[tararaaam]

Australia depends a lot on the vocal. If it does not improve, she is a NQ, if it does, I can see her doing a top 15.

 

[theditz83]

Hey guys - check out my running order reaction and prediction of the qualifiers from Semi Final 1 below:

 

[burrito]

Q:
Probable Q:
50/50:

for the borderline qualifiers, logic tells me that will be getting through thanks to televote (ex-soviet countries mostly) and thanks to juries, but something tells me that they both might be out and and will take the last two spots - Lesley having a very radio-friendly, feel-good song and Tix, well, being Tix. I wish made it but i see a NQ because of being sandwiched between two uptempo songs and coming off as too eerie. I voted for earlier, but the revamp made it so messy it's only a borderline chance at this point.. i'm putting as almost safe only because of their placing and possibility of coming off as noisy, but I'm 90% sure they are qualifying. and aren't going anywhere.

 

[Iker]

may NQ I feel. Some good songs are bound to NQ from this bloodbath semi and I have a sneaking suspicion that it might be one of these. Hopefully I am wrong.

 

[MAD20]

Sure qualifiers:
Probable qualifiers:
Borderline:
NQ:

My prediction:

My qualifiers:

 

[burrito]

may NQ I feel. Some good songs are bound to NQ from this bloodbath semi and I have a sneaking suspicion that it might be one of these. Hopefully I am wrong.

I too hope you're wrong but I don't think is in danger,, it's a fresh, contemporary one sung well (I haven't been looking for a live version tho) and placed between two weird, for lack of a better word, entries. She comes out looking favorably, but tbh everything is possible in this semi

 

[Iker]

I too hope you're wrong but I don't think is in danger,, it's a fresh, contemporary one sung well (I haven't been looking for a live version tho) and placed between two weird, for lack of a better word, entries. She comes out looking favorably, but tbh everything is possible in this semi

There are some who claim she's a poor live singer. I disagree but I admit that she is not flawless yet her DORA performance was still serviceable and can be further improved upon. There were some bum notes but overall cool.

 

[AlekS]

100% sure that will qualify.
The rest 5 qualifiers - it's anyone's game (even Slovenia, thanks to juries).

sis...

 

[Citelis]

Sweden is by far the safest qualifier! Lithuania, Ukraine, Azerbaijan are also very safe.

 

[Nicholas123]

Definite qualifiers :
Likely qualifiers :
Borderline Q :
Yerevan 2022 :

 

[Seok-jin]

Likely qualifiers :

 

[Nicholas123]

 

[BorisBubbles]

K finally set on my qualifier tiers.

Flags in order of likelyhood within the tier

> QF: /
> LQ: / /
> BL: / / / / /
> RQ: / / /
> NQ:

Yeah, only NoMaco are truly Dead on Arrival going in.

Right now to qualify in this group. , or , could snag a slot if one of the songs in BL underdeliver. Belgium and Russia are the likeliest on paper, but I doubt *all three* girlbangers will be advancing at once. More likely is that the audience will choose a fave and vote for that one, leaving the other two in the dust, thirsty for jury life support.

Ukraine, Sweden and Norway need two disastrous lives to NQ, rly (and even then, I think Go_A and Tix are getting enough televote support, same with Tusse and jury support, to qualify.)

Malta will win the semifinal. Lithuania probably win the televote as every Lithuanian living in Ireland, the UK, Norway, Sweden and Russia will be powervoting for them to qualify.