Who will qualify from Semifinal 1?

[LontraCanadensis]

I think this semi is kind of hard because there's A LOT of stuff that I could feasibly see crashing and burning. I think that the jury and televote could very well be pretty different in terms of qualifiers. I don't think that the running order really changed anything honestly. But I would say the categories go roughly as follows from my perspective:

Q:
High BL:
Low BL:
NQ:

If I were to pick, I would prolly chose:

 

[H.P. Lovecraft]

,,,,,,,,,

 

[ekzuu]

I would be okay with the whole 2nd half qualifying lol. But is it realistic, maybe not. So I predict Belgium and Israel missing out.

My prediction:
Definitely: (last spot + odds "hype" + juries) (juries)
Most likely:
50/50:
No:

So top 10:
(if juries pick this up, otherwise Israel/Australia or sb else)

I think it's gonna be close who wins this semi (esp between Lithuania, Malta, maybe Norway too but juries might sink it a bit; Malta might even win it due to all favourable circumstances, but I don't think it will go so big in the final, at least when they don't get similar favourable position again).

 

[kruskica]

I don't think Croatia got a good draw , it had 4 possible slots to go and they gave the 2nd earliest available to it.

I think the draw is actaully great. Between Norway and Belgium (both "stationary" songs with a darker vibe) is the best draw Croatia (or any pop song in 2nd half) could possibly get

 

[Iker]

The quirky, ecstactic masterpiece of is a definite Q

But it may NQ too though sadly. I can see televote ignoring for it being too weird / shouty and the fact that is not close to Europe at all.

 

[kruskica]

lol Go_A are going to eat Efendi ALIVE and it won't be pretty.

Azer could definitely NQ.

I'd love that to happen, but I think its not very likely to happen. Azerbaijan knows their stagings.

 

[Iker]

I picked

Sorry , but jury support is too strong (I will be very happy, if qualifiers instead of ).

I would like both & in the final but it seems unlikely to me, preferable instead of & (Ok, I can dream).

 

[Iker]

I, personally, find much more impactful than which sounded like a sleepy zombie attempt after Romania, which actually sounded surprisingly "I am here" in the sea of female voices in the second half (based on the recap on the official esc channel)

But I am one of the lone weirdos who doesn't like (borderline hate to rebel against the hype) and being the middle one of three continuing female pop songs (with Malta and Croatia not far away) I fear for romania tbh. I will forever stalk underrated entries threads and yt videos with it like people do with the god awful slovakia 2010 but I fear for it.

Slovakia 2010 is one of the few songs which melody & lyrics I still could vividly remember despite not listening to songs from that year for a long time. It was not crappy for me.

 

[tkris]

I think the draw is actaully great. Between Norway and Belgium (both "stationary" songs with a darker vibe) is the best draw Croatia (or any pop song in 2nd half) could possibly get

You don't think Romania is dark ? Being between Romania and Belgium would make it automatically better than what it's right now and also closer to the end

 

[kruskica]

You don't think Romania is dark ? Being between Romania and Belgium would make it automatically better than what it's right now and also closer to the end

yes but romania is also more of a fan favorite than Belgium and Norway

 

[Himan]

I find this semi difficult. I mean Russia is normally almost an automatic qualifyer, but I honestly don't believe Western European countries will give a lot of points for it. But it will get automatic 24 from Azerbaijan probably. Also a lot of points from televotes in Ukraine and maybe Lithuania and Cyprus and we are almost there. So I'm gambling: NO RUSSIA (and in the meantime also no )

Here are my 10 qualifiers for now:

 

[tkris]

yes but romania is also more of a fan favorite than Belgium and Norway

Ah , so you're comparing a good spot by the 2 songs surrounding it as opposed to the 15 songs that we are supposed to compare it to . Then there is no logic in me explaining anything

 

[Iker]

I think will NQ.
may NQ too but I like the draw.
Some good entries are about to flop.

 

[tararaaam]

I am really surprised by people thinking that Russia and Cyprus won't qualify...In the former, the usual advantage that Russia has in voting will prevail, in the latter, Cyprus qualified even with the sloppy vocals in 2019, she would have to do a Spain 2017 to NQ.

My personal expectations

 

[Swede12]

Safe qualifiers (80-100%)


Will probably qualify (60-80%)


Borderline (40-60%)

NQ


My personal qualifiers would be


The only thing that the running order changed for me is that Malta went from probably qualifying to safe.

A lot will depend on how the second and third category will deliver on stage, we still miss proper live performances from a lot of entries. Jury qualifiers vs televote qualifiers will probably differ quite a lot this year.

 

[Yazy]

My take:

Absolutely guaranteed:





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Possible surprises:
(Cezar effect: I still stand by what I said)
(Happy vibes will attract voters)
(See Israel)
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Walking on thin edge:
or or - Depending on how many of the 3 possible surprises listed above happen, there is a possibility that one of these here may end up not making through, kinda how it happened to some hot favorites in 2018 and 2019.
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Casualties:


(Yep...unfortunately this is what I indeed feel will happen)

 

[mauve]

Safe qualifiers:


Borderline


Definite Non-Qualifiers


My personal qualifiers:

 

[LoveHate]

Definite Non-Qualifiers

 

[mauve]

 

[kruskica]

Ah , so you're comparing a good spot by the 2 songs surrounding it as opposed to the 15 songs that we are supposed to compare it to . Then there is no logic in me explaining anything

So you don't think it matters which songs surround one entry? I'm pretty sure it makes a huge difference, because if right after one song goes a fan favorite, the song that was before is clearly going to be outshined. But if before and after go not-so-great songs, the song in between is going to be remembered as a good one, because it's a break from boredom, no matter how great the other entries are. It's a simple pshychology. There is no logic in me explaining anything.