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Who WILL qualify from Semi 1?

Who will qualify from Semi 1?

  • :ru: Russia

    50 89.3%
  • :az: Azerbaijan

    55 98.2%
  • :no: Norway

    50 89.3%
  • :se: Sweden

    50 89.3%
  • :mt: Malta

    50 89.3%
  • :lt: Lithuania

    56 100.0%
  • :il: Israel

    48 85.7%
  • :ua: Ukraine

    46 82.1%
  • :ro: Romania

    38 67.9%
  • :ie: Ireland

    11 19.6%
  • :be: Belgium

    20 35.7%
  • :mk: North Macedonia

    10 17.9%
  • :cy: Cyprus

    9 16.1%
  • :au: Australia

    43 76.8%
  • :by: Belarus

    6 10.7%
  • :sl: Slovenia

    4 7.1%
  • :hr: Croatia

    5 8.9%

  • Total voters
    56
  • Poll closed .

Realest

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EPYUjS3WkAAQBAh

Poll is open until the 11.05.
 

Ana Raquel

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:lt: :se: :ru: :no: :az: :mt: :il: :ua:

The last two entries are kind of tricky to me. :ro: is being a fave now but there is a significative chance of being a MESS live and pull out a nq - the most recent example that comes to mind is :is: 2015.

:au: has a real chance of staying out of the final (friendly reminder that Kate has always been a safe qualifier x). Yeah they qualified with Isaiah but that semi in 2017 didn't have many jury baits as this one does. Despite liking DBM more than I like, let's say, Attention, we can't deny that the latter is way more successful when it comes to getting those points of the jury - and, well, more vocally stable. Performance will be what's gonna decide the fate of this one. I'm leaning NQ so far.

On the other hand, :hr: gives me :cy: 2010 vibes so it's probably gonna get that 10th place in the semi.

There is one place left which I'm torn between :mk: and :by: but as I don't trust Macedonia's staging YET, I'd go with :by:


Final first outcome: :lt: :se: :ru: :no: :az: :mt: :il: :ua: :hr: :by:
 

QuirkyYodel

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There have to be some surprises so I’d say:

NQ for :au: especially if they keep that horrendous live performance idea, :mk: in because that song is very easy to stage.

:il: feels like it could end up 11th, so watch out for some country like :by: or whoever else performs in their native language snatch that 10th place.

Other than that, I guess it’s going to be funny seeing :mt: and:se: split up their votes or if :ro: and:no: will both survive from the 2nd half but I’m pretty sure that once we have the running order, everything will become clearer.
 

Ezio

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OK, I have 11 plausible qualifiers but only 10 tickets. There will be at least one shock non-qualifier out of :no: :se: :au: :ua: :ro: :mt: :il: :az:

:be: :lt: :ru: are safe for me

I have a slight fear for :be: though.

I like :cy: :mk: :sl: but I don't think they can pull more than their weight for another upset.

:hr: :ie: :by: no way
 
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Alaska49

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fuuuuck this semi is hard

LOCKS: :ru::lt:
PROBABLY BUT THIS SEMI IS HARD SO I WON'T CALL THEM LOCKS: :no::mt::il::ua:
THEY NEED TO STEP UP TO KEEP THEIR USUALLY GUARANTEED SPOT: :az::se::au:
BORDERLINE BUT THIS IS MY 10TH: :be:
KATE RYAN: :ro:
THESE WOULD QUALIFY IN SEMI 2 LOL: :mk::cy::by::hr:
VERY UNLIKELY BUT THEY QUALIFIED WITH A SHITTIER SONG IN THIS THEME SO: :ie:
TAKE FLOWERS TO THE FUNERAL: :sl:
 

QuirkyYodel

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Oh I forgot :be: was in this semi lol yeah either top 5 or bottom 3 there’s no in between for them here.
 

heke1988

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Azerbaijan
Norway
Sweden
Malta
Lithuania
Israel
Ukraine
Romania
Belgium
Australia

Borderline: Russia
 

hijirio

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Locks: :ru: :az: :mt: :se: :lt:
Gonna qualify unless they mess up the staging: :ua: :ro: :no:

2 spots left will be between
:il: :au: :be:

my two picks would be :il: and :au:, but it all comes down to how they stage their entry. If they stage a mess, :be: could sail through with a simple staging
 

Uto

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:ua::az: are outright winners of large demographics.
:no::mt: can ride the juries.
:ru: has the diaspora, should also help :ro: pull through if the performance isn't great.
:lt::se: strongest packages of the rest of the bunch, they shouldn't have to worry.

Last two places I'm not sure, I guess :au: should be in, just a strong song. :be: I suppose can rely on the juries.

I don't think :il: has broad appeal, but they might find themselves just about making it instead of Oz or Belgium. Other entries I think stand no chance except for maybe :mk:. Perhaps :by: has enough friends to make it through bloc voting.
 

Realest

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..........
 
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Leydan

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SAFE
:ru: :az: :se:

LIKELY
:no: :mt: :lt:

ABOVE THE BORDERLINE
:il: :ro: :mk: :au:

BELOW THE BORDERLINE
:ua: :be: :hr: :cy:

DNQ
:ie: :sl: :by:

Safe are safe for a reason. 🇸🇪 been getting some criticism but the juries will love them and how great they harmonize. The Likely ones seems pretty much lock in also, but just not at the top of the scoreboard. Actually 🇷🇺 I think will get a hammering from the juries, but the televote will see them through easily. The Borderline is just so hard to predict. I feel more confident with the 4 above, than the ones below. 🇺🇦 I think is in real danger, I think it's draw with who is in it's semi helps its chances more but I imagine it doing what Poland did last year. 🇧🇪 I think will get a very poor televote result, 🇨🇾 I think will possibly look better live than in studio and do better than expected but perhaps not quite enough. 🇮🇪 being in the DNQ doesn't quite feel right as I lowkey think some will like it, and I don't think it's a total right off. We'll have to see.
 

Nemo89

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Definitely safe

:az: deserves the final
:mt: deserves the final but it is not extraordinary as many say.
:lt: deserves the final but I prefer the songs of Azerbaijan and Malta.
:ua: deserves the final but it is not from "Top 10" as many shout aloud.
:il: in the final but the song does not convince me very much
:no: insipid but better song than that of Russia and Sweden.
:ru: I honestly don't understand why many like this song.
:se: even when the song is bad Sweden does not risk elimination?

Borderline:

:be: "Release me" does not deserve to be eliminated.
:au: I don't like this song but it's much better than the songs from Sweden and Russia.
:ro: The Romanian song should fight Sweden and Russia instead of Belgium and Australia.

DNQ +

:ie: deserves to fight to enter the final but the two places stolen from Russia and Sweden make the passage of the round too complex.
:mk: Even the Macedonian song deserves to fight to enter the final. However, the alliances and tastes of the trash-loving public have decreed his condemnation.

DNQ -

:cy: It does not deserve the final.
:hr: sorry for Croatian friends but the song is weak.
:by: bad but catchy song.
:sl: bad song but considered a gem. The worst of the semifinal 1.
 

midnightsun

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Apart from the obvious, some thoughts on possible surprises:

:ie: might get through. I think it‘s appealing to many „housewives“ (this as a synonym for viewers 35+ that have taken over the new group of an older audience - me included ;)) because poprock was a big part of our music scene when we were young(er).

:au: might fail for the first time. It survived the past years mostly with the help of juries but since it’s a strong semi the juries might place their votes differently this time. Plus, I always suspected them to vote deliberately pro Australia so that they could continue taking part but since they are now officially a steady member in Eurovision there is no need to save them.

:se: will pass but I believe placing only 8-10 in the semi

:ro: will pass thanks to Bulgaria being in semi 2 but it will fail hard in the final (20-25 in the ranking).
 

Zonne147

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Safe
:se: - Oh I'm not talking about this one
:ru: - It's Russia and it's the right song for some Eurovision fans

Likely
:no: - Too solid and outstanding to be left out... But we never know, it may flop
:lt: - I see this as a fan flop too. But atm I believe they are more than likely qualifiers
:az: - Televoting, televoting, televoting. I would put them out if there are HUGE issues vocally/staging the act

Borderline +
:au: - It's hard to believe this will not go through, their performance needs to be good. She needs to be vocally on point too
:mt: - Not understanding the hype around this one. Anyway juries will probably save this
:ua: - Tulia have failed but this is way stronger imo. Juries? Hmm... Televoting? Hmm... Let's see
:ro: - Not surprised if this doesn't go through I see this as a fan flop... But well, they have proven to do it right (I have a bad feeling this will fail)
:cy: - Oh so much hate around this one. I see people going for this if he delivers vocally, this is imo WAY more appealing than most of you think
:il: - Not a safe one and my 10th spot atm. This is catchy but not the most appealing in the lineup

There are 11 :O I'm taking :ua: from here according to a first impression issue

Borderline -

:by: - Catchy and people are hating this by no reason, everyone like much worse things this year. Anyway I don't think the song is good enough to go through here
:mk: - With a good staging and good vocals, why would this be out? Again, not the strongest but appealing enough to surprise
:ua: - too :(

NQ
:be: - In the last two years I also thought they would fail to qualify. Stands out but I don't see this going through this year and in this semi. It will depend on the juries - they need more than 100 points imo...
:ie: - Not in this semi. I only see this qualifying if they surprisingly manage to get a very good televoting result
:sl: - I think her voice is the best thing here, the song is too forgettable and flat. Almost no chance imo.
:hr: - Same as :sl:
 

Haverdge

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This is a very tough semi-final.

100% Qualifiers:
:se::lt::no::az::ru:

Highly Likely:
:au::ua::mt::ro:

60-40:


Fighting for the last spot(s) in Top 10:
:by::cy::il:

Unlikely, but not impossible:
:mk:

No Chance:
:be::sl::ie:
 
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MalagaToledo

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My assumption would be top 10:

:mk: :az: :ie: :il: :mt: :ru: :au: :lt: :se: :no:
 
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