Who WILL qualify from Semi 1?

[Nemo89]

Nations currently qualified:












Nations currently not qualified:









The thoughts of the nerd :

My list, based on the calculation of the votes and the ranking of the "Ranking Game", presents a reality diametrically opposite to what many affirm.

Australia is not sure of the qualification but is in a bad position. He can fight but he is not sure of the passage of the turn.

Ireland and North Macedonia are currently biting their legs in Malta and Sweden (the worst).

All you need is mathematical calculations. I love mathematics: this allows us to observe the paradox between objective reality and subjective reality. In fact, Belgium, considered bad in preferences, exceeds Romania.

 

[Glaciated Viking]

Safe


Likely


Borderline +


Borderline -


DNQ

 

[VikingTiger]

Safe:
No way Russia wont qualify. I am expecting a run away televote winner. And probably a decent jury result as well.
I expect the staging to be Az-standard, another sure qualifier.
Both juries and the televoters will probably love the quickyness of the show and the song.
The other favourites to qualify are not ballads. Norway will get lots of jury support because of vocals.

Likely:
I think Malta and Sweden will be fighting for many of the same votes. Are there room enough for the both in the final? Probably.
See the comment above on Malta.
Is this a fan favourite only? I do think this should gather enough points to go safely through.

Might just make it:
I think Ireland may surprise ut with this uptempo positive song (that I personally dont care for).
Australia will again get jury support. To get enough televoter support she needs to loose that clown outfit though!
Is it just my wishful thinking? But I find this different, easy to stage - so PLEASE North Macedonia, dont mess it up

Might just not make it:
I think big parts of Europe will find her voice too peculiar to vote for, not sure Ukraine will be in the final
Unsure whether Roxen will be able to capture enough people in this field.
I fare for Belgium. Nice - but far from outstanding. Will need wonders when it comes to staging.


NQs:
I really enjoy the song. But Sandro does not seem to have what it takes for a live performance.
Cant see how these last entries could qualify - even with great staging and brilliant vocals.
See above
See above

 

[Nemo89]

Safe:
No way Russia wont qualify. I am expecting a run away televote winner. And probably a decent jury result as well.
I expect the staging to be Az-standard, another sure qualifier.
Both juries and the televoters will probably love the quickyness of the show and the song.
The other favourites to qualify are not ballads. Norway will get lots of jury support because of vocals.

Likely:
I think Malta and Sweden will be fighting for many of the same votes. Are there room enough for the both in the final? Probably.
See the comment above on Malta.
Is this a fan favourite only? I do think this should gather enough points to go safely through.

Might just make it:
I think Ireland may surprise ut with this uptempo positive song (that I personally dont care for).
Australia will again get jury support. To get enough televoter support she needs to loose that clown outfit though!
Is it just my wishful thinking? But I find this different, easy to stage - so PLEASE North Macedonia, dont mess it up

Might just not make it:
I think big parts of Europe will find her voice too peculiar to vote for, not sure Ukraine will be in the final
Unsure whether Roxen will be able to capture enough people in this field.
I fare for Belgium. Nice - but far from outstanding. Will need wonders when it comes to staging.


NQs:
I really enjoy the song. But Sandro does not seem to have what it takes for a live performance.
Cant see how these last entries could qualify - even with great staging and brilliant vocals.
See above
See above

I agree in part, with your balanced comments and I liked the comment on Australia. Montaigne also worries me dressed like that. It looks like the wife of IT

What I don't agree with is Belgium's weakness. And then I don't agree with the comment on Sweden. If the song was not Swedish, it would risk very much the elimination

As for Romania and Ukraine ... I am not very convinced of these songs that many say are wonderful Does this being good with the votes mean to ingratiate the voters of these countries or are they compliments in bad faith? I like to think that maybe people think too hastily

 

[Courtzer]

I've gone for a bit more detail and have done a full ranking prediction for semi 1 (probably will be completely wrong)
1. 1st in televote 9th in juries
2. 2nd in televote 6th in juries
3. 3rd in televote 8th in juries
4. 4th in televote 2nd in juries
5. 5th in televote 7th in juries
6. 9th in televote 1st in juries
7. 8th in televote 5th in juries
8. 13th in televote 3rd in juries
9. 11th in televote 4th in juries
10. 7th in televote 11th in juries
11. 6th in televote 13th in juries
12. 10th in televote 10th in juries
13. 12th in televote 12th in juries
14. 14th in televote 15th in juries
15. 16th in televote 16th in juries
16. 15th in televote 17th in juries
17. 17th in televote 14th in juries

 

[Uto]

Didn't know where to put this, but I made a list of links for semi 1.

First Half

North Macedonia: [ESC] (recorded)
Belarus: [ESC] (NF live); [Artist] (recorded)
Lithuania: [ESC] (recorded); [ESC] (NF live)
Sweden: [ESC] (NF live)
Slovenia: [ESC] (NF live)
Australia: [ESC] (NF live); [Artist] (recorded)
Ireland: [ESC] (recorded); [3rd Party] (live performance, rough sound)
Russia: [ESC] (recorded); [3rd Party] (live performance)

Second Half

Norway: [ESC] (NF live); [Artist] (recorded)
Cyprus: [ESC] (recorded)
Croatia: [ESC] (NF live); [RC] (recorded)
Azerbaijan: [ESC] (recorded)
Malta: [ESC] (recorded)
Israel: [ESC] (NF live); [3rd Party] (recorded)
Ukraine: [ESC] (NF live); [3rd Party] (recorded)
Romania: [ESC] (recorded); [3rd Party] (live performance); [3rd Party] (NF live, rough sound)
Belgium: [ESC] (recorded)