Most probably those countries that qualify because they get neigbour votes in the semis but in the final those diaspora votes concentrate on other songs.
One example: Lithuania. It will qualify because, well, it qualifies almost every time. Also, it has the advantage of Semi 2. In the final, nobody will care.
Another example: FYROM. Advantage of Semi 2. In the final, all neighbour votes will go to Croatia in first place and the rest of Europe doesn't care.
Third one: Belgium. See above. In the final, France will get the neighbour votes as well as the rest of Europe's.
Four and five: Spain & UK, because - who would vote for them (except of me in case of UK *sobs*)
Six: Norway. All neighbour and Western Europe votes go to Iceland, except for the German jury votes, which will go to, of course, Sweden. *eyeroll*