The Draw

[Halldor]

Sweden
Georgia
Australia
Albania
Belgium
Montenegro
Finland
Azerbaijan
Portugal
Greece
Poland
Moldova
Iceland
Czech Republic
Cyprus
Armenia
Slovenia
Latvia

Serbia
Austria
Russia
FYR Macedonia
Malta
Romania
The Netherlands
Hungary
Denmark
Ireland
San Marino
Croatia
Norway
Switzerland
Belarus
Bulgaria
Lithuania
Estonia
Israel


Green meaning that their odds have increased, it does not necessarily mean that they're likelier to qualify than red or black countries
Black are nullified, not a good nor a bad spot for them
Red odds have decreased, this does not necessarily mean that they're likelier to fail qualification than green or black ones

 

[Chorizo]

Austria: running on air
Russia: wheelchair
FYR Macedonia: dancing alone

I think the EBU has already accepted that Russia is out. They just have a problem admitting it.

Come on EBU! You can do it! #OutAndProud

 

[GianlucaTomoe]

In this draw it seems that some of the male singers are pushed by the powers that be...

 

[ParadiseES]

In the first semi, far better songs than Greece are at risk of not making it. At the moment I'm calling Greece a non-qualifier. Juries will bury it with a shovel.

The Greek song is not exceptional, but it's certainly enough to qualify. Juries will not vote for it as much as the televoters, but they will not bury them. Juries usually love dance songs with good vocals (remember how they saved the crap from Ukraine in 2012).
Most of their loyal friends are in this semi too (especially Cyprus and Albania). This guarantees many extra points.

No, Greece is not at risk at all in the semifinal. There is not any sign of risk.

 

[DanielLuis]

I mean, look at this string of songs:

07. Finland
08. Azerbaijan
09. Portugal
10. Greece
11. Poland

Probably at least one of these will have to fail the qualification, and I really believe as things stand that Greece is the one most in danger. Of course things could change with the rehearsals, but the song is so generic and bland and this sequence of performances will really put the cheapness of the song in evidence, when compared to all these songs around it.

 

[Jim]

[MENTION=6762]DanielLuis[/MENTION] You wish for Greece... Probably Finland or Poland, will stay out...

 

[DanielLuis]

[MENTION=6762]DanielLuis[/MENTION] You wish for Greece... Probably Finland or Poland, will stay out...

Yeah, I could see that too. I think the fact that Greece is between those ballads will help it in the televote, but it will also possibly hurt it a lot in the jury vote. It may come down to which one has the biggest effect.

 

[joancamo]

I prefer Finland and Portugal to pass over Greece song-wise.

 

[GRE]

Use google translator to read this statistical analysis for the draw

http://infegreece.gr/oi-xores-pou-t...ion-me-vasi-ta-statistika-kai-tin-proistoria/

 

[ParadiseES]

I mean, look at this string of songs:

07. Finland
08. Azerbaijan
09. Portugal
10. Greece
11. Poland

Probably at least one of these will have to fail the qualification, and I really believe as things stand that Greece is the one most in danger. Of course things could change with the rehearsals, but the song is so generic and bland and this sequence of performances will really put the cheapness of the song in evidence, when compared to all these songs around it.

Greece is generic, but it's one of those safe songs that it's impossible ti succeed but also to flop. It's the only fast song of the group as well and that would help. I guess there will be a break between Portugal and Greece, so that would help too.
I think Finland and Poland are the ones in more danger, but still they could all qualify. It wouldn't be the first time with many songs in a row qualifying.

2016 SF 1: Russia, Czech Republic, Cyprus, Austria (#09-#12)
2014 SF 2: Switzerland, Greece, Slovenia, Romania (#12-#15)
2013 SF 1: Denmark, Russia, Ukraine, Netherlands (#05-#08) / Lithuania, Belarus, Moldova, Ireland (#10-#13)
2012 SF 1: Cyprus, Denmark, Russia, Hungary (#12-#15)
2011 SF 1: Serbia, Russia, Switzerland, Georgia, Finland (#06-#10)
2009 SF 1: Romania, Finland, Portugal, Malta, Bosnia & Herzegovina (#14-#18)
2009 SF 2: Azerbaijan. Greece, Lithuania, Moldova, Albania, Ukraine, Estonia (#12-#18) (7 COUNTRIES!)

.... etc

 

[FilipFromSweden]

I'm confident will appeal to many

 

[burrito]

Not only Greece seems to appeal to many (despite the fact that eurovision scoreboard tells otherwise ) but I guess that their chances actually increased. The song, despite the fact it's cheap, will definitely stand out and be remembered thanks to it's position between two slow ballads. Guess it's a sure qualifier now, and Poland may be the one to stay in semis (too many people fancy Portugal, and Moldova's song is incredibly catchy)

 

[DanielLuis]

If Russia's withdrawal is confirmed (it seems it's gonna heppen), and the ad breaks remain the same as last year it's great news for Romania and Switzerland - they are now #5 and #13 and will perform before the break. I think this is especially good for Romania, televoters will have more time to digest the yodel-rap mixture

 

[Kaz]

If Russia's withdrawal is confirmed (it seems it's gonna heppen), and the ad breaks remain the same as last year it's great news for Romania and Switzerland - they are now #5 and #13 and will perform before the break. I think this is especially good for Romania, televoters will have more time to digest the yodel-rap mixture

Definitely. Also since now Russia isn't taking up a qualification spot, Switzerland could potentially grab it. It's still borderline, but Russia's withdrawal may be just what they needed.

 

[joao]

If Russia's withdrawal is confirmed (it seems it's gonna heppen), and the ad breaks remain the same as last year it's great news for Romania and Switzerland - they are now #5 and #13 and will perform before the break. I think this is especially good for Romania, televoters will have more time to digest the yodel-rap mixture

I'm not sure that's the case. I remember when there was a year (I think it was when Armenia withdrew) they also had a running order too and when they gave up everything kept the same. For example, the breaks. Instead of being after the 10th song it was after the 9th because the original draw determined who performed on the first snd second half.

 

[DanielLuis]

So, these are the halfs for the grand final:

1st Half:

Armenia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Croatia
Denmark
Hungary
Israel
Italy
Moldova
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal

2nd half:

Australia
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
France
Germany
Greece
Norway
Romania
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
22. Ukraine

Anyone wanna try and figure out how the running order will be?

 

[DanielLuis]

I think the producers will have a lot of trouble figuring out the running order for the 1st half! Belarus, Israel or Moldova are the obvious contenders for the final opener. Sweden or Romania might close the show.

 

[Pawhlen]

I think the producers will have a lot of trouble figuring out the running order for the 1st half! Belarus, Israel or Moldova are the obvious contenders for the final opener. Sweden or Romania might close the show.

Do you really think they would put us as 26? On the other hand, one of the favorites for a good result last year did perform last,

It would be perfect though if we did close the final since we opened the whole competition by performing as #1 in the first semi

 

[tuorem]

I think the producers will have a lot of trouble figuring out the running order for the 1st half! Belarus, Israel or Moldova are the obvious contenders for the final opener. Sweden or Romania might close the show.

98% of the songs I like are in the first half The evening is gonna be quite boring towards the end for me

 

[Ezio]

Let's give it a try:

1st Half:

Israel
Poland
Azerbaijan
Netherlands
Moldova
Austria
Armenia
Croatia
Belarus
Denmark
Hungary
Italy
Portugal

2nd half:

Greece
Australia
Spain
Romania
Bulgaria
Sweden
United Kingdom
Belgium
22. Ukraine
Germany
France
Cyprus
Norway