[Speculate] Semifinal 1 - Running Order & results

[Ezio]

Now that Semifinal 1 is complete, let's start predicting the running order.

First half are:


Second half are:


Ad breaks after 5th/6th 11th/12th


1st It's the kind of party song that screams opener
2nd Perfect spot for the underrated ballad of the year
3rd Death spot for an NQ from the get-go
4th Another death spot sadly
5th Tick up the spirits with party sound that will probably NQ
------ ad break
6th bring on the favourite to open the 2nd third
7th decent filler
8th decent fan favourite, energetic and ethnic ballad
9th 100% sure Q spot
10th serving the camp after so many serious ladies, could alo go to
11th light and cheesy filler
----- ad break
12th wake up songs, this spot could also go to or
13th brilliant ballad and shift of moods after the party craze
14th there is no way to avoid a ballad streak, so let's build them up
15th favourite for the sweet spot
16th 2nd to last between favourite and fan favourite perfect for a likely NQ and yet given them more impact
17th set the arena on fire and close the show, not the sweetest spot, could go to and also



Results are tough to predict, the semi is way more open than last yearseses:

Sure shots:
likely Q:
wild cards:
NQ:

 

[Zeus]

I think Switzerland on 'likely Q' is a little bit optimistic. I know you like that song, but I don't see it get a lot of televotes. Problem is that it could be a jury qualifier, but there are a lot potential jury qualifiers in this semi with Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Lithuania and even Ukraine. So I would swap Lithuania with Switzerland.

I would guess also that Latvia will open this semi. Maybe Portugal as the closer.

 

[Zonne147]

Running Order

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.

12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.

Safe:
Likely:
The last three:
Can definitely see it happening:
Likely NQ:
NQ:

This semi is very unpredictable, feels like everyone except for Bulgaria has a shot here, and looking at the songs I see a big room for surprises and flops

 

[Ezio]

You found a way to avoid a hefty ballad streak in the 3rd third

 

[Bobjan FR]

For the semi 1, i suppose they will put the 5 boys bands - Bulgaria, Moldova,Latvia,Ukraine,Slovenia- in the spots 1-3-5-7-9.
A bit like they did with the bopgirls last year (Cyprus, croatia, israel,azerbaijan,malta) in the spots 8-10-12-14-16

Like this, latvia might be the opener. Albania would have been good too.


So i imagine a first part like this :

1 Latvia
2 Lituania
3 Bulgaria
4 Switzerland
5 Moldova
6 Albania
7 Slovenia
8 Netherlands
9 Ukraine

And the second part.... Denmark got the look of an ending song, but as they were already last to perform last year, maybe the organisers will give the chances to someone else (I remember in 2017, the semi's running order was reversing the good places and bad places by opposition of the year before). Norway and austria could close as well.

Let's imagine they separate the ballads armenia - greece - iceland - portugal

10 Iceland
11 Austria
12 Greece
13 Denmark
14 Portugal
15 Croatia
16 Armenia
17 Norway

 

[Looren]

Moldova will obviously be either opener or after the ad break so they have time to install the train

 

[Realest]

I will do a Prediction Thread with a Poll as soon as we have the Running Order.

 

[I bims]

I have the feeling that will be the opener. The elephant in the room on stage right out of the gate, will get the biggest cheers (fitting for an opening) and won't be harmed by going first because they will qualify 100%

 

[Ezio]

I have the feeling that will be the opener. The elephant in the room on stage right out of the gate, will get the biggest cheers (fitting for an opening) and won't be harmed by going first because they will qualify 100%

Would make sense for several reasons, I guess. That would sink Latvia's chances if they got a more forgettable starting order.

 

[Kaz]

I know this may be an unconventional choice, but I'm looking at this from a production standpoint. At the end of the day, Eurovision is a TV show and they need to grip viewers in. The Netherlands is my pick for an opener through process of elimination:

Production doesn't like to put songs with strong ethnic elements first, so no Albania, Moldova, or Ukraine.

They're also hesitant to put joke songs first because people will switch off if they perceive Eurovision as too jokey, so I don't think Latvia will be an opener even though the energy is probably suitable. The only 'joke' entry which has opened the show since the producer draw started was Norway 2018 but that was helped by Rybak being a Eurovision veteran, and perhaps a recognisable face to some.

Lithuania is too quirky and inaccessible to open the show (I mean...The Roop were definitely quirky too but the song was more suitable).

Switzerland is even more downtempo than the Netherlands, and needs to be placed in the middle of the first half to break up all the other entries.

Slovenia and Bulgaria are just too...mid? Neither one is particularly modern or eyecatching.

This leaves the Netherlands as opening the show. I think it's the most modern song in the first half, and although it is downtempo it still has a somewhat driving feel. I also have a feeling that staging-wise they are going to try and replicate something like S10's recent live performance or Duncan Laurence at ESC 2021, which would be a great way to show off the lighting/stage. Plus we've seen that production is willing to open the show with dark/moody pop songs (Walking Out) even when they had She Got Me and Too Late For Love in that same half.

 

[VirginiaVision]

I imagine the most likely openers are
I kinda feel like the producers might be inclined to put Ukraine first for the political statement/momentum. Like putting them front and center as a way of saying "these are some of the amazing people of Ukraine and we support them". Then again, I also said last year that there was no way they'd let a song about the devil open the final...

As for a closer, my personal pick would be , though that's more of an opinion than a prediction.
I wouldn't want to end on something chill like or , but also wouldn't want to go 100% energy with or (although the latter's "energy" factor may depend on how its staged). The Show is a feel-good song with positive vibes without being so energetic that it's overwhelming. Imo, "going out with a bang" should be reserved for the final.

I haven't heard yet, but the two seconds I heard on Twitter this morning make me think it won't be a closer.

 

[Valts]

Since I am from I hope we can open the show, boost the qualifying chance. But if I have to predict, I'd say is more likely to start the show (It's a great opener and for political reasons of course).

feels like a 2nd/3rd spot song, I know they have a lot of fans, so that could definitely be an upset.

I hope they choose to put 2nd since almost no one wants them to qualify.

For the 2nd half they might go the 2021 2nd semi route - a bunch of ballads in the beginning out of which 1 or 2 qualify ().

and feel like show closers for me, but was the last one last year, so my guess is that will perform last.

 

[midnightsun]

My prediction:

1. Albania
2. Switzerland
3. Moldova
4. Lithuania
5. Slovenia
6. Bulgaria
7. Latvia
8. The Netherlands
9. Ukraine
10. Croatia
11. Armenia
12. Iceland
13. Austria
14. Portugal
15. Denmark
16. Greece
17. Norway

 

[Flamenkax]

My running order :

01
02
03
04
- Ad break -
05
06
07
08
- Ad break -
09
10
11
12
13
- Ad break -
14
15
16
17

Albania and Ukraine places can be reversed tho for all the reasons said in this topic, Ukraine would be a great opener as well.

 

[burrito]

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17.

 

[Bobjan FR]

Now we have all the songs of SF1... it looks probable for me that Finland will be the opener of SF2

 

[aardvark]

1. This screams opener, fun an energetic. Ukraine would also be a great opener for obvious reasons, but I doubt they would let the odds leader open the show.
2.
3.
4.
5.
BREAK
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
BREAK
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.

 

[Kitakaze]

Looks like we only have a few more hours to go so I’ll throw my hat in the ring while we wait. Based off of 2021 & 2019 which were the last 2 times we had 17 songs, the breaks were used between songs 6-7 and 12-13 rather than 5-6 and 11-12, so going off that:

Expectation: 01 Albania 02 Bulgaria 03 Lithuania 04 Moldova 05 Switzerland 06 Slovenia — break 07 Latvia 08 The Netherlands 09 Ukraine 10 Croatia 11 Norway 12 Portugal — break 13 Armenia 14 Denmark 15 Iceland 16 Greece 17 Austria

Hope: 01 Latvia 02 Lithuania 03 Slovenia 04 Ukraine 05 Albania 06 Switzerland — break 07 Moldova 08 The Netherlands 09 Bulgaria 10 Portugal 11 Croatia 12 Denmark — break 13 Norway 14 Greece 15 Austria 16 Iceland 17 Armenia