Result Analysis

[Lona]

This person posted a nice analysis of the result:

Wer hat eigentlich den ESC 2014 entschieden? | Holger Dambeck



only televote - only jury - overall

Points Austria would have gotten with only jury or only televoting mode:

He noticed a big difference between the jury and the televoters in the case of Poland and Switzerland, so he took a closer look at those two countries.


Points Poland would have gotten with only jury or only televoting mode:

Points Switzerland would have gotten with only jury or only televoting mode:

 

[Lona]

It is kind of strange to see Germany above the UK in the only jury and only televoting list, but under them in the overall ranking. I know how that can mathematically happen, but it is still weird.

 

[Mlyn]

Austria got an extreme high score of 169 out of 188 possible points in the 2nd semifinal

 

[GWTW1939]

It is kind of strange to see Germany above the UK in the only jury and only televoting list, but under them in the overall ranking. I know how that can mathematically happen, but it is still weird.

It's exactly like last year when Ireland finished mid-table in both televote and jury while Spain finished dead last in both yet the end result had Ireland dead last not Spain

 

[nofuxCZ]

Nice! I'm also planning to look closely into the results, that's why I wrote myself a script to fetch all the results data from the eurovision website.
Here are all the results in the Excel file, I thought it might be useful for some of you as well

http://www.sendspace.com/file/j1brvm

 

[RainyWoods]

San Marino beating Azerbaijan in the televote

 

[LalehForWD]

The German jury seem to have strange taste. :?

 

[nofuxCZ]

Several analysis of the results I've found:

Eurovision 2014 voting patterns | Scientific Gems

The network diagram above (click to zoom) shows the voting patterns in the recent Eurovision Song Contest. Colours indicate the final score for each country. I have used a simple linear model to predict votes based on the final scores, and the resulting predicted votes for the top countries are Austria: 7.8, Netherlands: 6.4, Sweden: 5.9, Armenia: 4.7, Hungary: 3.9, Ukraine: 3.1, Russia: 2.4, Norway: 2.4, etc.

Arrows in the diagram show votes which are higher than predicted by 5.5 or more (for example, votes of 10 or 12 for Hungary). No strong voting blocs are visible (thanks to the addition of juries to the televoting), but the cluster at the top left shows those countries which (like me) felt that the Dutch entry should have won. At the top right is a faint trace of a former-Yugoslav bloc. In the centre we note the usual strongish vote of Spain for Romania (due to Romanian immigrants), and at the lower right we see strong votes for Russia from some nearby countries – possibly due to Russian expatriates. As in past years, the contest is still an interesting window on European identity.

The diagram below superimposes the network on our previous map (click to zoom). Stronger votes are shown darker, with votes higher than predicted by 7.5 or more shown in black:

Incidentally, there was no evidence of even a slight statistical relationship between final scores and the order of songs played in the final.

Reading Politics · Eurovision: A continent divided in its sexual attitudes?

Points to Austria

Points to Austria - only televote

Points to Austria - only jury

And this last one investigates the jury voting and rivarly between ex-Soviet and Scandinavian blocs:
ESCritic: Analysis of ESC 2014 Grand Final Results

Coordinated, manipulated voting apparent in Azeri and Belarussian juries:
The jurors nearly voted the same way for all 25 acts. When one looks at all five juror rankings for each country, there is little variability between each juror ranking. The Azeri/Belarussian rankings then clearly suggest that there was deliberate coordination. There is little to no probability that these similar rankings happened by random chance. Here is a breakdown of the Azeri/Belarussian jury scores with averages and standard deviations. Note: the numbers in the columns indicate place ranking.

Major rivalry exists between Scandinavian and ex-Soviet blocs:
After the crumbling of the Balkan voting bloc in 2013, the two dominant voting blocs, the Scandinavian and ex-Soviet blocs, attempt to destroy each other in this year’s contest – using both their national juries and televoters. Very few points were exchanged between the two voting blocs. As you can see below, both Scandinavian juries and televoters were anything but generous with their points. Note: the numbers in each column except “Points awarded” indicate place ranking.

The ex-Soviet juries and televoters also did not show much mercy to the Scandinavian acts. One exception is Ukraine’s 12 points to Sweden’s Sanna Nielsen.

When the juries were first introduced back in 2008, the intent was to prevent bloc voting. However, the breakdown of jury results for the Scandinavian and ex-Soviet voting blocs show otherwise. Ironically, national juries may be leveraging their own voting powers to revive bloc voting as a weapon against other countries rather aid to a neighboring country.

And here are the votes of 4 major voting blocs broke down into some cool interactive maps:
http://public.tableausoftware.com/p...ockvotingbehaviourinEurovision2014/Dashboard1

 

[nofuxCZ]

Televote and jury ranking overview for all countries

 

[A-lister]

If we should discuss voting manipulations, can someone add an analysis on the manipulations made by UK, Ireland, Netherlands, Austria, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, Lithuania directed at Poland... or is it only eastern countries that can do wrong here?

 

[Leydan]

The EBU wouldn't dare ban all of those from ESC.

 

[A-lister]

The EBU wouldn't dare ban all of those from ESC.

Who talked about bannings?

But BBC, RTÉ, RÚV, TROS, LRT, ORT, NRK, SVT should atleast receive some warnings for purpose manipulations of votes