I'll start by adressing the semis first.
In my opinion the first semi was stronger than the second one. Which seems to be the opposite of the popular opinion so I am not surprised.
The first semi had my favorite song, Mundo by IAN. By this I don't mean that it was the best song on FdC this year or that it'd do great in Eurovision. Just that it was the one that appealed to me as a whole. I'm sad that it didn't get a spot in the final (which I think that was deserved in the deal) but semi 1 was indeed just too strong of a field imo and even though a week ago I'd easily trade Contramão for Mundo I am no longer so sure of that. I think that it'd have passed in the 2nd semi. If it was to be sent to Eurovision I think it'd at least be an entry that most people would not expect coming from Portugal. Maybe it wouldn't so well, maybe final alone would be a victory already. But certainly it'd add to diversity on our catalogue of songs sent to Eurovision.
I thought Irma looked kind of sweet and the lyrics of Livros are actually pretty nice. I didn't want her to pass but now that she's no longer in content I think that people just remember the staging or her look. I know it can be hard for people that are not Portuguese to miss out on the meaning of a lot of ours songs (many times a simple translation still won't be enough). I'm not saying Livros was a masterpiece but I do say that it was worth more than people judged it for - the cover...of the book. How fitting.
mema. was just such a mess live. It did not appeal to me at all on television. It was my least favorite for sure. I have to say that I have listened to the song on spotify however and that instrumentally it is not that bad actually. I think they just totally messed up the staging. Wardrobe, choreography. Everything.
Girassol was neat. But it felt too safe. Even bland at the time. It's that one type of song you'll always find in our NFs. It just sounds so...Lisbon dude-like. "Betinho song" for those who understand lol. But it wasn't that bad.
Nadine was another of the songs I thought deserved to pass to the final and was kind of screwed by the strong semi field. But I knew right away that there was no chance that both she and Valéria would pass. It'd be just one. And at face value Valéria already seemed like the one likely to pass. Cheguei aqui is more matured, I think it's a song that doesn't reason too much with the average voting crowd of both FdC and ESC. I just had a listen to the song again today after a week and it does feel like it was too dark lyrically. It's beautiful but painful at the same time. It was my father's favorite and keep the long lasting not so nice circumstances of my life that earns this song a special place in my heart.
Regarding the NQ songs of 2nd semi I am in-sync with most that didn't qualify.
Ana Tereza's song gives me mixed feelings. I didn't like the staging. It's a song that I dismissed right away. Then that talk in the green room from the composer about women this and women that. I'm not going to discuss politics but I don't think it's nice to bring politics into Eurovision. Whether I agree with the politics or not. And in that moment the composer made it kind of feel that it was a song for women only, of the feminist cause. My mother actually liked it and after hearing it again I understand why. The lyrics are pretty endearing. But I just think that it was sold poorly. On the stage and off the stage. And thus deserved the NQ.
Ariana's song felt so flat. That choreo was totally out of touch with the song. And the whole MLK sample and what not just felt misplaced. It seemed to want to appeal to a certain group of people just like Ana Tereza's song. The song was no good anyway. I think people would have expected more of Virgul given his name and career.
Graciela's song was my favorite song of the semi and much like Mundo by IAN it seemed to be the song that people are more upset at for not qualifying. I always like these type of songs that end up getting 6th place in FdC semis or 11th place in ESC semi so I am not surprised
I'll give it that the staging was a bit messy and the lyrics had a couple of strange lines. I think that in such a semi though it could have a chance. But again I was not wrong when I said that only 1 of the 2 songs that I liked the most in that evening would pass. This was the one that stood behind.
I always knew Da Chick would not be qualifying. That retro just felt too forced. And the staging was...bad. I did like her energy. In some ways it reminded me a bit of Laura Tesoro's song a few years ago. That kind of vibe and funk but way weaker song.
Tainá's song Jasmim was one of those that some years ago I'd perhaps force myself to try to like it but not anymore. It was simply too quiet. It was kind of neat and calming but not good enough for a competition. I'd rather hear it in a spa someday instead...
About the finalists then:
Let's start with one of the favorites. I'll be quite upfront. I don't like Carolina Deslandes. I don't like her personality, I don't like her style. I never saw appeal in her. I don't know her that well but what I've heard through the years I have not liked.
I can be very neutral when it comes to judging art however. And I will that her song, although I am still in a bit of denial does make me kind of emotional. So it's a song that I will never say that I dislike. And my opinion of Carolina as an artist has improved.
The lyrics here are the main thing. They are pretty beautiful, specially in the chorus. And the interpretation is quite convincing.
But here's the part that makes me not want it to win FdC. I think it's a song that wouldn't touch foreigner viewers as much as it touches a native. That's natural. I'm sure there are international fans out there who love it and really get the whole emotion but keeping in mind that it's not the fandom deciding anything but rather the mixed audience in the night of the performance. I think this would be a bit of a miss. It's a bit like PAENDA if I have to establish a comparison, except more "ethnic" and beautiful. But I don't see Salvador appeal in this as some do.
Then there's the whole fans situation that does annoy me a bit. I don't think she should be selected based on her popularity around here. It should be on merit. And Por um triz is not our best chance with an international crowd.
If she ends up going I predict borderline qualification to the final and then right side of the board. Happy to be surprised otherwise. This is my opinion now 2 months before the contest. A lot will happen and change until then.
I'm sorry to fans of EU.CLIDES but I have no idea what his song is even doing in the final. It's the one I like the least, I'd easily trade him for IAN or Graciela or even some other songs that weren't so much my cup of tea. He's way too static, mumbles his words out way too much (I really had a hard time understanding him on saturday) and I see no instrumental appeal. This can't even contend for victory. It'd be the song I'd be most shocked about if it were to win, that's for sure.
When Fábia came on stage over a week ago what everyone started talking about right away was her wardrobe choice. To this day I'm still that's still the talking point to some. There are people like that. "Don't like the clothes, don't like the song".
I'm no hypocrite. I'm no fan or wasn't at first. I watched the semi with my mother and all night she kept cracking jokes and comparing her to a cleaning lady. And I played along for entertainment.
But while she sang...I really felt her. Her emotion really got to me. Her interpretation. Fábia is a hip-hop/rapper artist and said that she tried to do something really different artistically while in quarantine and that's how this song came about.
I liked it in secrecy right away and I like it even more now. It really is a beautiful song with beautiful lyrics. It's supposed to be vulnerable. It's supposed to look quirky on stage. It's really emotional and perhaps that's the biggest problem with the song since there's a big divide in terms of how people handle their emotions. Some love intimate emotions flowing freely, others either dislike or have a hard time letting out their emotional side so easily.
Judge how you will. And with all due respect to the many differences. To me, this is the closest entry in FdC so far to that of Salvador. In terms of quirkyness, wardrobe. It has "ugly duckling" written all over it. Salvador's song was sad too but more romantic. This one I feel is the opposite. It's beautiful in a sad way and is an open love letter to a loved one - a newborn, a romantic interest, a lover. It can have so many recipients and the love declaration can be interpreted in plenty of ways and that's one of the things I like the best about it. Whatever happens saturday I am glad already that this song was sent to FdC this year.
Joana Alegre was my other favorite from semi 2. I knew between her and Graciela only one would pass. I understant that it was Joana. The song is more appealing in overall.
She has a pretty nice voice and I like the high pitched notes she hits in the chorus. The wardrobe is spot on. Perhaps the staging needs even more blue. It's a really sea-themed song and has a very nice feel good feeling about it alongside some well written lyrics. Instrumentally I really like the rock/guitar bits on the chorus/post-chorus.
I don't think she really has a chance to win. I think if somehow she did however people would end up liking Joana Alegre as a person at least. She seems very accessible as a person and friendly.
Personal preferences aside now, I'll talk of the first of 2 entries that I think would have higher impact on ESC this year for us Portuguese people.
I think Saudade is that one song that would have easily already won beforehand if it wasn't such a strong field this year.
This song has everything people expect from us at ESC in it. Very ethnical, very Portuguese. The Portuguese guitars are there and they blend perfectly with a more modern sound and arrangements made by Karetus who are by far the best performers of the whole "Saudade" pack. My favorite part of the song is probably when the music "dies a little" pre-chorus and builds up on a crescendo through the percussion instruments.
People complain a lot about Romeu but I think he's perfect in a contrasting way. You have to listen to the lyrics. They are pretty melancholic. I don't understand why people want to see him being as energic on stage as the Karetus duo while he's singing what he's singing. I don't find the rose part that cringy even.
I think that if anyone needs to step the level that's Karetus. They're already doing good but they could level it up much more. They are a really energic live act so this performance here in FdC feels a bit washed down. I think the song itself needs to be amped up. Make it louder, make it the feast that people are expecting it to blow into during the chorus at least.
As for the dancers, I'd ditch one at least. And that'd be the one in red. That one just looked really weird out there. I'd keep one dancer dressed in the typical eye-engaging careto costume and I'd make at least one of the two Karetus guys wear the typical horned mask.
The song is really catchy as it is anyway and while I am not crazy over it, I'd be proud if we'd sent them. This is very Portuguese. This is what ESC used to be about back when I started watching it with a modern touch. This is 3 minutes of Portugal. ESC is missing these kind of songs. If it ends up being selected I can already imagine watching the performance on the recap and being like "what will come shall come. no regrets - this feels like Portugal".
It was obvious that NEEV would be in the final. I'm a ballads guy, I'm an emotional guy so this song should really hit home with me. And while I don't dislike it, while not having it as contender to go to ESC...I can't help but feel that there is something lacking. I don't know why. The lyrics are really beautiful. The kid seems really the sweet, introverted type. It's hard to point what's wrong. I think in my way of thinking it comes more with the way this song would be taken internationally. And I can already see there's quite some division. Some seem happy that a song in English finally has a pretty good chance with us, others seem to think it's too bland. I'm caught in between the arguments. It is a song that I can see having good international appeal. The lyrics are pretty touching. I can't help but agree however that for who's watched ESC for a long time now, while hard to point faults at this entry, it really is no novelty. There's been plenty of piano ballads with beautiful lyrics throughout the years. And that's my fear. It's not a novelty act. It doesn't need to be. I'm torn about this one. I can see it doing pretty well left side of the board as much as I can see it NQ. It'll all be about how people will take if it is the chosen one. I won't be upset if he ends up going and I will support him. I do like the song. I just...think there are better options? This is a bit risk-safe? That's kind of it.
I was kind of thinking that in a way I wish Pedro Gonçalves had written the NEEV song instead. He was really close with Sara Carreira who passed away in December and this would have been a beautiful homage to her. Pedro was a close friend of Sara. I'm sure he'd win the contest no matter what had he written NEEV's song. But NEEV song, like plenty of others, is open to different interpretations.
About Pedro's actual entry then. First of all I must say I'm not a fan of that jacket, haha. I thought we 90's kids stopped wearing that 25 years ago. I like the song, I like Pedro - I had already liked his entry in the year Salvador won FdC.
This is a pretty well written song about heartbreak. An uplifting song about heartbreak. Pedro really owns the stage well. Looks very comfortable and charismatic. Interacts well with the band. I think this well get good votes. But I'm afraid it won't be contending for a win. It's very feel good, I can't pinpoint the wrongs exactly. Maybe not ambitious enough? Again, it doesn't have to be. And I would be OK with Pedro going although I'd be surprised.
I just get this feeling however that this is both a performance that I like but that at the same time I can envision it being performed while zapping remotely through those morning/afternoon shows (Goucha and alikes lol). And that's not a very happy thought. I'm not saying it's vulgar or average, I do like the song, I just feel it's a bit below international standard. But I wouldn't mind at all that a new start would be born - that being the epic Portuguese sax guy that comes in in the middle of the song lol. He's nowhere near as epic though.
Sara Afonso and her Contramão...for sure the biggest grower for me in this edition of FdC. At first it felt too minimalistic, a bit elitist even. Like those kind of songs radio stations love because of the cleverly written lyrics. But then the days go by and I'd find Contramão being stuck on my mind a lot. Which is not bad at all for a song I didn't want in the final to begin with. Two things in here - both the performance and the lyrics are very good. It's a song that I can see international fans going all "meh, so quiet" over it and me not minding it because I'd be far too gone enjoying the song. The lyrics have been really well put together, the arrangements are really nice and the whole minimalistic look of the stage added to Sara's rather simple and frail look just make it all fit together nicely. I think it's a song that could suffer a bit in the same way that Elisa's did last year though. In the sense that the international appeal wouldn't be that great. I don't think she can win but if she does while I will think it's not the best choice it is a song that I will support. I think it'll remain as a golden song in FdC history. A bit like "Anda estragar-me os planos". Our language can be really beautiful sometimes.
I think this song is a bad/dangerous song to listen if you're at the wheel post-heartbreak tearing up or after a drink or two whilst feeling the blues however, haha.
I used to think The Black Mamba were contenders but now I don't think so that much anymore. I could totally see them at ESC however and doing decently even. The staging was good, the performance was on point. The song is also decent. But there is something missing.
Tatanka's (the singer) been a household name with RTP for many years and I was not that much of a fan of his. His voice is not really my style but won't be saying he's not a good singer. He sings well and on key. I like the classic rock solo towards the end of the song.
I wouldn't mind if they ended up being selected but they're a bit like NEEV in the sense of feeling risk-safe. But way more risk-safe. I think it's a song that wouldn't have many haters but also it's a song that wouldn't have the ammount of lovers some others would have. It's hardly polarizing and while that's fine too I feel like lately we've been expected to bring polarizing entries to the competition.
Lastly, the dark horse of the whole competition for me and the song that is on par with Saudade as the one I'd feel that would represent our country the most out there in the contest. At first I wasn't a fan, even some rhymes in the lyrics felt a bit forced to me. But Valéria's song grew so much on me. That last time she raises her singing gives me the chills alongside a feeling of pride.
I won't say that she could win ESC and in fact while we have plenty of excelent entries this year I don't think we have one that could really win the whole thing.
Valéria and her song would be popular to the extent of "La Forza" in my opinion. Perhaps even more.
Probably the staging will/would change if she is chosen but I just loved it in FdC. How she enters the stage walking in that princess-like dress and jumps straight into business showcasing her powerful voice as if she was twice or thrice her age. I think that visually she has the perfect package, she's petit and adorable off-stage but on stage she's a force of nature.
So personal tastes aside and all. I'm going with Karetus or Valéria winning the whole thing. Carolina will be there fighting for it. NEEV as well. These are the four.
Sara Afonso is very borderline. I don't feel she has the level of support of these (well Valéria might not have but you don't play with fado in the country of fado so do keep that in mind) but she'd be an interesting sort of not expected winner.
Any other option would surprised me at this point. The Black Mamba is the one that comes closer to these in least surprising. Joana and Fábia would be neat surprises (and although I prefer the former instrumentally I'd be more happy for the latter for the whole package and lyrics). Pedro would be a neat surprise too but I'm really not seeing it happening. And finally I just see no vision for EU.CLIDES at all although I know that he has some popularity at national level and his songwriter even did whatever he said he did for Rihanna in the green room. But EU.CLIDES would be the performer I'd have a harder time support at ESC. Sorry to the fans but I think he'd be the worst winner we've had in a long time. Even Homens da Luta were better back in the day. No, I just don't see Volte-Face doing it at all.