IN IT TO WIN IT GAME

[tsegaye]

I was bored and started writing down the countries that I think has a chance at winning, and the ones that are out of the race already based on the buzz in the semis, the chosen song not strong enough and so on. Then I thought it might be fun to see how other people here would rate the countries chances at winning, so therefore I'm starting a thread where everybody can post their own list!

So basically there is just two categories: The countries that has a shot at winning (in it to win it) and those who doesn't (won't win it). You are allowed to move over a country from the "won't win it" to the "in it to win it" side, but try not to, you should only place a country on the "won't win it" list when you're 100% sure about it not standing a chance of winning. I can't control how you edit your posts of course so I trust you guys, I hope you have some manners I think the best time to end the game is when we've gotten some time to reflect on all of the songs for some time, so how about March 31st being the last day for changes? When you feel done with your "In it to win it" list you lock it by sending it to me in a PM.

Your allowed to rank them in the "In it to win it" list, but keep in mind that when it's out of that list it's out for good! And please edit your original post when you want to update your lists If there's anything unclear about the "rules" (I wouldn't consider this game as serious as other games) just ask in this forum or PM me! SO: To win you have to have the least amount of countries in your "in it to win it" list by March 31st, and with the winning country is in that list of course, if some users are tied with the same amount of countries in their lists the earliest locked list wins!

SO, here's my list atm and some arguments on why I can't see them winning:

UPDATED 5/2

IN IT TO WIN IT


(edited 12/3)

 

[ZoboCamel]

Cool new idea - I like it! Will definitely write up my own list here at some point.

First, though, I'm going to be a bit of a rules stickler, as I always am with things () ...perhaps consider a slight change to stop everyone from just waiting right until the March 31 deadline to predict? As-is, anyone who writes down their list early is going to be at a disadvantage, since (if I understand correctly) you're locked from taking stuff out of the "won't win it" section as soon as you post. That means you've got a lot more freedom to change around your list if you just don't post it until the last day.

Generally there shouldn't be many reasons for countries to move from "won't win it" to "in it to win it", but it can certainly happen – say, a country releases a surprisingly good revamp that puts them back in contention, or there's an artist/song change after the initial selection, or they release a great staging concept etc. Under the current rules, the optimal strategy would be to make sure you don't miss that chance by just a) not posting for the next two months or b) putting every country under "in it to win it" until the last day, which... wouldn't make the thread very exciting to follow until April, at least if people are being needlessly competitive like I am

Given that – and the fact that we need a tie-breaker in case multiple people have got the same winner and the same number of countries in their winner-candidate list – how about saying that ties will be resolved by whoever has finalised their list the earliest? That would require people to make a new post saying "locked in" or something when they finalise their list, but I think it would solve a couple of those problems Alternatively, we can resolve ties by saying that e.g. if two people predict the same winner and have the same number of countries, then whoever's shortlist also includes e.g. 2nd, 3rd wins. But that then doesn't solve the early-posting issue... anyways.

Regardless, I really like this concept, so I'm looking forward to taking part!

 

[Kaz]

In it to win it!



Won't win it.



New additions (5 Mar):

X My Heart is not a winning song.
Nor is Inje
Outlaw In 'Em will have its fans, but ultimately would be incredibly unlikely to win
Light Me Up is forgettable
O Jardim will certainly ride off Salvador's success, but I can't see it winning
Not a winner.

 

[FilipFromSweden]

Love the idea! I agree that one should be free to switch between the win/won’t win list until March 31st is over!

- In it to win it:



- updated 7th of March, no changes further will be made

 

[tsegaye]

Cool new idea - I like it! Will definitely write up my own list here at some point.

First, though, I'm going to be a bit of a rules stickler, as I always am with things () ...perhaps consider a slight change to stop everyone from just waiting right until the March 31 deadline to predict? As-is, anyone who writes down their list early is going to be at a disadvantage, since (if I understand correctly) you're locked from taking stuff out of the "won't win it" section as soon as you post. That means you've got a lot more freedom to change around your list if you just don't post it until the last day.

Generally there shouldn't be many reasons for countries to move from "won't win it" to "in it to win it", but it can certainly happen – say, a country releases a surprisingly good revamp that puts them back in contention, or there's an artist/song change after the initial selection, or they release a great staging concept etc. Under the current rules, the optimal strategy would be to make sure you don't miss that chance by just a) not posting for the next two months or b) putting every country under "in it to win it" until the last day, which... wouldn't make the thread very exciting to follow until April, at least if people are being needlessly competitive like I am

Given that – and the fact that we need a tie-breaker in case multiple people have got the same winner and the same number of countries in their winner-candidate list – how about saying that ties will be resolved by whoever has finalised their list the earliest? That would require people to make a new post saying "locked in" or something when they finalise their list, but I think it would solve a couple of those problems Alternatively, we can resolve ties by saying that e.g. if two people predict the same winner and have the same number of countries, then whoever's shortlist also includes e.g. 2nd, 3rd wins. But that then doesn't solve the early-posting issue... anyways.

Regardless, I really like this concept, so I'm looking forward to taking part!

Thanks for the feedback, great that you like the idea! The tie-breaker idea you had was something I thought of as well, I think the first suggestion is better because then you're forced to be a bit early with your prediction! So I'd suggest that when you've locked your In it to win it-list you send it to me by PM, and if you have the winning entry and tied amount of countries in your list with other people, the one that locked the list first wins! Maybe I could send my locked list to you [MENTION=11243]ZoboCamel[/MENTION] so nobody thinks I'm cheating?

About moving countries from "won't win it" to "in it to win it" list, I think you shouldn't be allowed to do it because then you have to be more careful with what you're predicting. If you didn't see winning potential in the first place. But if chosen entry gets a revamp or something I think it's unfair to those who believed in it from the beginning if you had it in your "won't win it" list and then decides to move it back. I understand the problem with not posting your lists here in that case, so I'm willing to abolish that rule. If the person writes the reason of putting it back up on the "in it to win it" list so everyone can see you've changed your mind about the act. And don't forget that just because you post your list of for example 39 songs (the not chosen entries) in the "in it to win it" list doesn't mean that it's locked, feel free to edit is as often as possible (when a new entry is released, when the national final songs in some country isn't good enough to win ESC etc)!! I'll change the rules in the first post

 

[NNR]

Okay, I'm going to play it really ballsy and throw in a few countries who haven't revealed their entries.

The Elite Sixteen (now 2):



Noczincz (pronounced no chance):










































BIN LIST:
8 Feb: Italy
12 March: everyone apart from Estonia and Belgium

EDIT: forgot Hungary

EDIT: also forgot Macedonia, smh I'm going there in June how could I

 

[randajad]

IN IT TO WIN IT
Very likely —
Likely —
Hard, but it could happen —
There’s a chance, kinda —


NO WAY HOSE
Surely —
Most likely not —
They might have a chance, but probably won’t win —

 

[ZoboCamel]

Given how early things are at the moment, I've split mine into sections. All of my top four sections are still in it to win it for now, but at different probabilities, since we know more about some countries than others. I'll use extra drafts to squish things down into the two simple categories, bit by bit over the next couple of months, as we get more info.

The Top Contenders looks at songs which I think are our current front-runners;

The Dark Horses are generally the songs that look promising, but haven't given us much to work with yet;

The Unknowns is for countries we know next to nothing about, or which have some big unanswered questions;

The Stragglers refers to countries that I'm close to discounting, but want to wait for any surprises from; and finally,

Won't Win It are those that, well, won't win it, barring a miracle or some kind of massive surprise.

Now – onto the overly-detailed predictions!

---

In It To Win It: The Top Contenders
Armenia - Qami, if it wins Depi Evratesil with a promising performance, could be in the mix. A few others could be dark horses.
Bulgaria - Bulgaria's track record & effort are promising, as are the murmurs from the internal jury panel, which is mentioning a big stand-out.
Estonia - La Forza is absolutely a possibility if it's chosen and gets semi-competent staging for May. Strong, memorable and unique.
Spain - Weaker than most winners musically, but it's got lots of staging potential. Better version of Azerbaijan 2011, which won.
Sweden - It's Sweden. You'd need a hell of a lot of guts to rule them out this early.


In It To Win It: The Dark Horses
Austria - Cesar interests me, but we haven't got enough past the artist name so far.
Belgium - As with Austria, I like the artist choice, but we need a song.
Cyprus - With a popular singer alongside a dream team of composers and more, this is shaping up as a contender. No song yet, though.
Finland - Saara Aalto certainly seems to have the charisma. It'll come down to the song, though; based on that, she could finish anywhere.
The Netherlands - May be an outside possibility if Waylon brings something catchy enough.
Serbia - The revival of Beovizija is a promising sign. Serbia was a Eurovision powerhouse not long ago, and has still shown signs of life recently.
United Kingdom - Legends, with a decent live performance and revamp, could have a shot.


In It To Win It: The Unknowns
Australia - I've got my doubts about Jessica, who's known as an inconsistent performer, but Australia generally ends high. I'll wait for the song.
Azerbaijan - Not enough information.
Belarus - Depends on how the Alekseev drama ends. Best case, he's essentially a weaker Kristian Kostov, but I don't want to rule it out yet.
Denmark - Waiting for the NF lineup; it's usually pretty weak, but can have the occasional surprise.
Greece - Not enough information.
Israel - Not enough information.
Italy - Not enough information.
Montenegro - Not enough information.
Poland - Not enough information.
Russia - Though I struggle to see Yulia as a winner, it's Russia, and they may not have been trying too hard last time. I'll wait for the song.


In It To Win It: The Stragglers
FYR Macedonia - Macedonia struggles even in their best years, but we've got nothing to go off so far this year. Will give them some time.
Germany - Likely out based on continued low effort, but I'll see the NF first.
Hungary - Lots of potential top-10s in A Dal, though no winner for now – but want to see more of it first, since hype is building for a few songs.
Ireland - From what we've heard? Probably not. I'd like to hear the song first, though, since genre and artist alone isn't much to go off.
Lithuania - Likely a no-go, though I'll wait until I've heard all of the NF entries.
San Marino - A very weak track record, but I want to see how their unusual NF turns out first.
Slovenia - Hasn't produced a winner candidate for a long time, even in NFs. Will give them some time though.

---

Won't Win It
Albania - A revamp could improve Mall, but not to winner-level. Plus, Albania's staging has been weak lately.
Croatia - We're low on information, but the lack of effort and hype at HRT implies they don't have a winner.
Czech Republic - Mikolas could do very well with televotes if things come together, but I can't imagine the jury letting him win.
France - Will struggle to have enough impact musically, despite powerful lyrics. France has missed the podium in 2016-17 with stronger entries.
Georgia - Artists can change their style for Eurovision, but only so much. This one seems destined for an NQ.
Iceland - No entries here that can grab winner-level attention, based on fan reception and a quick listen.
Latvia - The NF's only real song of note is Esamiba, and it's not big enough to win Eurovision.
Malta - Some decent songs, but none sound like winners. No changes made from previous approach, under which Malta has struggled as of late.
Moldova - At first glance, there's not anything in this lineup that sounds like a winner.
Norway - A few dark horses in this lineup, but they're dark horses for the top 10, not the win.
Portugal - Staging will likely be below par to avoid hosting again. Potential comparisons to Salvador won't help.
Romania - Nothing in the selection looks like it could challenge for the podium.
Switzerland - Nothing in the NF really stands out on first listen, and that's what a winner needs to do.
Ukraine - Ukraine could always bring back its revamp magic, but so far has a weak NF lineup. Plus, UABC may not want to win again yet.

 

[FilipFromSweden]

Love the idea! I agree that one should be free to switch between the win/won’t win list until March 31st is over!

- In it to win it:



- updated 7th of February

There we go!

 

[tsegaye]

There we go!

I agree that Bulgaria has a huge chance of winning, but maybe not big enough to put their flag two times?

 

[tsegaye]

Won't win itxboring
(NEW) Didn't even listen to all the songs, but there's no buzz around the NF so I'm counting them out.

Next one that falls down from the list!

 

[randajad]

Very likely to win —
Likely to win —
Hard, but it could happen —
There’s a chance, kinda —
They might have a chance, but probably won’t win —
Most likely not —
No way Hose —

 

[tsegaye]

Won't win itxboring
(NEW) No winning entry here either unfortunately, I really want Slovenia to win ESC

Next update! The list is getting shorter and shorter fast now

 

[SwissKung]

Time for my prediction, will have a final update once we have all the songs.

In it to win it:

Might happen:

Won't win:

 

[FilipFromSweden]

I just removed

 

[Ezio]

I just re-removed

 

[tsegaye]

I just removed

Me too

 

[tsegaye]

I just re-removed

Will you post your list here or do you want to wait?

 

[randajad]

Very likely to win —
Likely to win —
Hard, but it could happen —
There’s a chance, kinda —
They might have a chance, but probably won’t win —
Most likely not —
No way Hose —

 

[Ezio]

Will you post your list here or do you want to wait?

I share my list with filip.