If all countries scored from last to first place (2016 grand final results)

[Alaska49]

there has been more discussion about the new voting system these last couple of days and i posted that i thought it was probably the fairest system they could achieve. but a lot of people seem to think it's not very fair still (shoutout to russia!), while others care more about how the countries on the right side of the scoreboard do. so i thought, what if every placement in the ranking mattered in terms of points?

so this is what i did: i took the results of the grand final this year and scored them by their position on every single country's ranking. first place got 25 points, second place got 24, and so on until the last place, for both televote and jury results, just to see how it would turn out. some results were expected, while others were pretty surprising!

some observations before i post the numbers:

-- even before i did it, i knew that it was inherently not as fair as the system we have now; juries can still see their entire ranking while televoters can only choose favourites. but since they wouldn't have the power to remove the televote points, it still is a lot fairer than the 2013-2015 system.

-- since the countries competing in the final can only vote for the other 25 entries while semifinal flops can vote for all 26, to keep points consistent i decided that the semifinal flops would not give out scores from 26 to 1, but rather from 25 to 0. this way it's like all finalists ranked themselves last by default, if that makes sense. this way all countries have a total of 650 (!) points to give out, 325 from each of televote and jury.

-- since all finalists get points from all other countries now, the tie breaker becomes the next requirement, which is bigger number of 25s, then 24s etc.

so, this is what i found (number in parenthesis are changes in placement):

as i expected, australia ends up winning because of the jury war between team russia and team ukraine, but the other results were surprising to me - poland doesn't fall out of the top 10 at all (in the 2013-2015 system, they tumble all the way down to 19th!), malta tumbles down quite a lot, and for some reason spain ends up doing quite well. the split results are, as it turns out, even more revealing. jury first:

malta doesn't even do as well with the juries in this system! maybe they should do their ~lobbying~ with more countries to see if they get more points, heh. also, funny three-way tie right above russia, and involving netherlands, that got okay jury placements even when they weren't top 10. spain once again moves up (left side of the board!!), czech rep does too, and georgia falls down - i checked and some juries placed them last or almost last and the others were substiantially nicer to them. but the most revealing results are, as always, in the televote:

it's hilarious how malta already did horribly in the televote and then did even worse in this system. lol malta also i must confess that one of my hopes with this was to see czech republic do a bit better with the televote but nope, they really flopped hard, harder than anyone else before possibly. gabi's average placement in the televote is 23.21 out of 25.39 (the lowest possible average), with the highest placement being two 18ths from armenia and hungary. she really didn't deserve this ;_;
second biggest surprise: spain flies from a very miserable bottom 3 placement to a still middling but infinitely better placement. they got a lot of just-outside-the-top-10 placements in the televote, as it turns out. poor barei =(
but the biggest surprise for me is how this system brings block voting down a lot better than juries do! azerbaijan, croatia and especially serbia get severely punished here - serbia goes from six televote 12s from being just marginally above germany. people really gave no shits about this one, but this goes unnoticed in all three 50/50 systems this show has used because serbia got big televote and jury points in the same countries, and very bad placements in both televote and jury in the same countries too.

so this is it! this was such an interesting journey that i am considering doing it for semifinals and for 2015 and 2014 (did the makemakes do as horribly as gabi in the televote? i hope they didn't!), but it takes a bit of time so i'm not sure. the main thing i take away from this is that, since this is basically a glorified ranking of averages, the split results of 2013 were probably quite different from the released averages in terms of points. no wonder they are still sitting on those results lol.

what do you all think? do you like these placements more or less than the real thing? is it fairer to bring entries like serbia down or should their few big scores count more than a bunch of smaller score? or was this just statistical wank? let me know!

 

[94ayd]

It would be interesting to see how the qualifiers would change with this system.

 

[tuorem]

Thank you for that ranking, I was actually wondering how much taking in account full rankings would affect the final scoreboard. Sadly, Czech Republic remains second to last.

Even though it would mean the juries' fave would have won, the fact that every vote counts might be the fairest system eventually when it comes to televoting. But I prefer the current system because juries might still be tempted to put some song last on purpose to give them the lowest points possible.

 

[macmillanandwife]

Thanks [MENTION=12489]Alaska49[/MENTION] for coming up with this system on the forums! I remember the head of the Spanish delegation stating that maybe the EBU should expand the number of countries getting points. He is right as I have noticed that Spain would get close to the top 10 with many countries but not achieve it, which is of course frustrating. It's nice to see Spain would have done better under this system, and it's such a shame Gabriella did so bad with the televoters in the final

I decided to do the same system that Alaska did with giving a point to every entry. Since there are 18 entries for both semis, they will be allocated 0 points for 18th (as the big 5 and host vote as well) up to 17 points for 1st place. Here are my findings:

Semi-Final 1

While the top 10 for the Juries would change much other than Armenia and Czech Republic, what surprise me the most is how much Iceland and Estonia just missed out of placing in the top 10 with the juries. Under this system, Iceland would have placed 10th and Estonia 14th. Montenegro would tumble as many countries ranked this last. If it wasn't for Armenia and San Marino (surprisingly) giving 10 points to Montenegro it would have been placed much lower. Under the new system, it would tumble 5 places!

Nothing much changes under the all points system when it comes to televoters. Although, it's a shame that Estonia was the one that just missed the top ten with a few countries as they would have placed 14th. Also, Montenegro does horribly with the televoters, if it wasn't for Croatia and Bosnia & Herzegovina saving their asses, they would have gotten nul points. They were placed last or 2nd last with almost every other country. Also, Bosnia & Herzegovina was not as liked by televoters as first thought. They were the biggest losers as they went down 3 places.

With the scores combined, the top 10 qualifiers do not really change. However, it's good to see that Czech Republic rises from 9th to 6th, Iceland rises to 13th to 11th (so close!) and Estonia escapes last place to 15th. Montenegro tumbles from 13th place to last as many countries on both sides placed this song last or at least in the bottom 5. It's a shame Iceland & Estonia missed out but at least with this it's much more reasonable. (On a side note, while Estonia's entry was very good, personally I think he creeped everyone out because he looked like he would murder in your shower, and looked uncomfortable on stage).

Semi-Final 2

The most interesting thing about the jury's results for the 2nd semi-final was the amount of reshufling that was created after I implemented this new system. Israel, Slovenia, Belarus, Norway, Poland, Ireland, and Albania would all go up in rank. What shocked me the most was FYR Macedonia literally tumbling 6 places from 11th to 17th! Poor Kaliopi! All countries except Slovenia, Serbia and Israel placed her last or close to last as what happened to Montenegro. Thankfully, the juries were more forgiving on Switzerland than the televoters as we shall see with the next image.

Norway and Denmark were the ones that has just missed out of the top ten among televoters. Belarus did a bit better as well as they gained 1 place. Although if there was one thing all televoters agreed, it was that nobody voted for Switzerland. Rykka was either last or close to last with every country in the televote except for those 3 points received from Albania.

So under this system, Belarus would have barely qualified! We could have seen Ivan's naked ass almost getting attacked by a wolf a second time! It was so close that when I changed the system a bit to add a few of points to the top 3 (16,18, and 20 instead of 15,16 and 17 points similar to the current point allocation) Serbia would have qualified instead. It was that close. Poland would have dropped a couple of places but would still have qualified.

In conclusion, this system actually is even more fair than the current system, it gives everyone a chance to do well and throw a few surprises, and does a better job of nullifying block voting than the current top 10 system. The ex-Yugoslavia countries are decimated under this new system as they would not benefit as much from voting among themselves if every other country places them almost dead last. This system gives better results for entries who are more consistent in their ranking. It better matches the averages in placings among the juries and televoters. Under this system, if a song is averaged 11th, there is a better chance of placing 11th.

I will continue to convert the full results for other years as well. At least I know under this system, Austria and Germany would have gotten points in 2015.

 

[Alaska49]

thank you for doing this! i meant to but life got in the way so i'm super glad you did it. serbia really was the biggest block vote entry of all times, it's hilarious to me but as i said i don't think this system is fair in practice because i do not trust juries having their full rankings count anymore. but on paper it is pretty fair. maybe if it we went back to 100% televoting since it undermines block voting? (lol no thx)

looking forward to 2014 and 2015 results under this system! hopefully the makemakes and twin twin didn't bomb as hard as gabi in the televote

 

[macmillanandwife]

Actually, I think it does make the juries more conscious in their rankings. However, I would change from taking the averages of the jury rankings to the total number of points and rank them accordingly, as well as increase the number of jury members. Five members are too low to use for averages as one jury can throw off a song's chances of getting points. Of course, juries can shut down other countries just simply out of pure spite *cough* Armenia/Azerbaijan *cough*

 

[macmillanandwife]

Here are the results from the 2015 Grand Final! Some surprises were found! For the Grand Final, as there are 27 entries, the scores go from 0 to 26.

Jury

So, what I knew coming in was that some countries must have done much better than what the final results show. This year was pretty bad when it came to point cancelling, especially for pretty much every country that's not in the top 5. Anyway, for the juries' scores, I did not include the televotes from Macedonia or Montenegro as their results were disqualified. So the maximum score one could achieve is 962 points instead of 1,014 points.

What I found out quickly, other than the juries dumping all their points to Sweden, is that they didn't hate Spain nor Germany as much as perceived. Under this system, Spain would have went up 9 places from 25th to 16th! I noticed that many countries ranked it between 11th and 16th, a few did rank it low but it was rather consistent. With Germany, there was a bit more variance between the juries' ranking but a lot did rank it above 20th place and in the end went up 5 places from 20th to 15th. Poor Edurne & Ann Sophie!

I feel pretty bad for Albania as she reiceved the lowest average ranking of 22.92 out of 26.32 with 4 countries placing it dead last. This is pretty harsh considering that she was ill the night of the final (and that week in general), and even then she gave it her all. If it wasn't for the Georgian and Greek juries giving her a 1 point she would have received nul points. Also, I think the split point allocation as it states that the jury gave her 26 points. However, under the 2016 system, she would have only gotten 2 points from the jury and (possibly) not include the televotes from or as their results would have been disqualified. Poor Elhaida!

Montenegro and Hungary would drop the most as they would drop 6 and 5 places respectfully to 18th and 22nd.

Televoting

With the televoting results, San Marino only used a jury. Therefore, they were excluded from the televoting results. The maximum a country could receive is 988 points.

Once again, there is great reshuffling in terms of rankings. Spain does remarkably well with televoters as they did with the juries. Many televoters placed Spain between 11th and 17th place. Spain skyrockets from 20th place to 11th place! Norway also did a lot better with televoters as well as they went up 4 places to the left side of the score board. Azerbaijan and Armenia are the biggest losers in the televote as they both drop 6 places from 14th to 20th and from 11th to 17th respectfully. Albania once again did not fair as well with televoters as she drops 5 places, from 9th to 14th. She just can't get a break!

and really did get pummeled by the televoters this year as they received the worst averages. Actually, France did even WORSE than Austria as they averaged at 22.53, while Austria averaged at 22.39 out of 26.31. If it was not for Armenian televoters who voted enough to give France 2 points. It would have also received nul points. Other than the 8th placing from Armenia, the other only higher placings was a 13th placing from Portugal and a 15th placing from Belgium. She really did not deserve this!

As for Austria, they did equally as bad as France with televoters but managed to get a couple of 16th places form and , a 15th place from , and a 17th place from . I know ORF did not want to host Eurovision again, but this is just a slap on the face. While it's true both France's and Austria's entries were not the OMG BEST SONGS EVER, they were not epic trainwrecks like the UK's entry.

Combined Results

Pretty much the top 7 did not change at all because they dominated the voting if you look at the original scores and Sweden still wins. However, the biggest winner would be Spain because they skyrocket by 10 placings from 21st to 11th! Germany and Cyprus do amazingly well too. Germany goes up by 8 placings from an appalling 27th place to a still low, but decent 19th, and Cyprus goes up from a disappointing 22nd place to a middling but decent 15th. Austria also fairs better, as they jump 3 places from 26th to 23rd and would not be the embarrasment of being the first host's entry of getting 0 points. Unfortunately, would end up last for a 2nd year in a row if you do not cross over ,, or singular results over. If that was the case the UK would have been placed last. Honestly, poor Lisa!

Also, would break the top 10, does a little better and jumps from 15th to 12th.

The biggest losers would have to be and , as the juries pretty much pummeled Elhaida to the ground and did not do much better with the televoters she dropped 8 places from 17th . Armenia was very lucky as block voting did help them out a bit this year. However, under this system, they would have also dropped 8 places from 16th to 24th. They were pretty much tied but either way it still stings.

So all in all, this grand final was unfair to just about everyone. As with Spain, I'm noticing that many countries do like their entries as seen with Barei in 2016's results. However it is not enough under the top 10 system for them to garner many points. It seems that Spain flies just under the radar for most countries as well as they do not have many buddy nations (other than Portugal and still inactive Andorra). While Italy and Albania do support Spain from time to time, they can also be swayed just enough to not give them points. So, it's safe to say that Erdune did much better than she thought, but Europe didn't give it enough of the respect it deserves.

Next week is the 2015 Semis!

 

[macmillanandwife]

Today, we're going to go through the 2015 Semi-Finals! Some interesting results have been found!

Semi-Final 1

SF1 Jury

The first obvious finding was how much the juries hated Finland's entry. Great googly moogly I didn't see a song shot down this hard as... France in the 2015 final. While PKN's song was not good, it didn't deserve this slamming. Only Serbia gave them enough to get 1 point. They averaged at 13.79 out of 15.21 in rankings while the 2nd last country Macedonia averaged at 10.74. This can be seen under the official results as there is a 41 point difference between Macedonia and Finland.

Denmark gets to the jury's top 10 in exchange for Albania. Armenia drops 2 places to 14th place as not as many juries liked them as perceived. Romania, Estonia, Serbia, and Moldova do a bit better, but remains mostly unchanged.

SF1 Televote

What surprised me was how badly Belarus and Albania did with televoters. Belarus dropped by 2 places while Albania dropped by 3 places to 11th place. Armenia did slightly worse but did not fall out of the top 10 like Albania. Televoters were much less critical on Serbia, Greece, Finland, Hungary, especially Finland. They actually did better with this system as they reached 9th.

SF1 Combined

Netherlands and Serbia did better this time than with their original scores. While The Netherlands doesn't make it to the final, they do get pretty close. Serbia goes up 2 places to 7th place. Finland actually gets out of being last in exchange of Macedonia. Armenia ties with Albania, but still qualifies for the final.

Semi-Final 2

In Semi-Final 2, Azerbaijan, Montenegro, and San Marino did not have a televote. Therefore, the maximum amount a country could get in the televote is 272 points instead of 320 points.

I decided to post the split results side by side because I wanted to show you one thing (other than the jury vomiting all their points to Sweden). San Marino Bombed, and I mean bombed HARD! I guess the audience screaming "NO!" at the start of their performance pretty much explained how well they were going to do. San Marino did as badly Finland in Semi-Final 1 and equally as terribly with the televoters. Italy's televoters saved San Marino as they got 2nd place with the televoters (they were placed 11th with the Italian jury hence the 6 points). Ireland did better with both sides as Molly reached the 5th with the juries and 14th with televoters. Another big surprise was how badly Malta did with the televoters, her rankings between countries were pretty erratic and she ended up doing worse than under the top 10 system. Poor Amber.

While the top 10 does not change under this system, Czech Republic, Ireland, and Malta were so close in qualifying! If any of these countries did slightly better (more than 10 points) they would have qualified! Switzerland, while lowly ranked by many countries, was much more consistent as many countries that did not give it points (on both sides) and ranked it around between 11th and 14th. San Marino was really, REALLY lucky that Italy was in the final and Montenegro's jury gave it points as I don't think it would have gotten anything if it was in the other semi-final. However in this system, they would be placed last.

Well that's it for 2015, now backwards to 2014! I wonder if or would actually qualify?